Here’s how the New York Jets can put a stop to their playoff drought in 2022
In the Super Bowl era, the New York Jets have 12 playoff victories, good for 20th in the NFL. Considering that a number of the teams below them are expansion teams (Panthers, Jaguars, Texans), that number is lower on a per-year basis, but still not as low as one might think.
The team’s current streak of 11 years since its last playoff appearance is the longest in the NFL – by five full years. When talking about heartbreak and snakebitten franchises, the Jets are among those at the top.
Every year, Jets fans look for answers. Almost every season, something else goes wrong.
So what can make this year different? Not too many people expect the Jets to make the playoffs, but the offseason is a time for hope. What needs to happen for the New York Jets to beat the odds and play postseason football?
It all starts with the quarterback
We don’t need to remind Jets fans of Zach Wilson‘s historically poor rookie season statistically. Regardless, there’s still optimism and faith among fans that Zach can make the leap.
Wilson does not need to become Joe Burrow overnight for this team to succeed, but he must, at the bare minimum, be better than Jimmy Garoppolo has – probably somewhere in the 2020 Ryan Tannehill neighborhood.
Though Wilson’s upside is far higher than that, we want to see him grow as a strong game manager with more big-play potential than either of the above QBs. Make the easy throws. Complete 65% of your passes. Throw close to 25 TDs. Get near 4,000 yards passing. Cut down on the sacks and picks. Stay healthy.
Be near average at stopping the run and above average at stopping the pass
The Jets’ defense was bad in all areas last year. With the personnel they currently have, it’s likely that the run defense will struggle.
The pass defense was well reinforced, though. Ending up somewhere in the 16-19 range league-wide against the run and top 10 against the pass can propel the Jets forward.
Rush the passer and get there
The return of Carl Lawson and the drafting of Jermaine Johnson are the key pieces here. John Franklin-Myers sliding back inside also increases the potency of the Jets’ attack. As Robert Saleh has said, the heat will force a QB into mistakes. The Jets need to get into the QB’s head.
Pound the rock
In the era of high-powered passing attacks, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry have shown what the value of a running back can still be.
Luckily, the Jets have two supremely talented ball carriers and a veteran insurance option. Mike LaFleur has committed to the 49ers’ wide-zone running system. Witnessing the success of relatively unknown players in that system gives confidence that Breece Hall and Michael Carter will thrive.
A top-five running game would take tremendous pressure off of Zach Wilson and the defense, shortening the game and allowing Wilson to manage the game and take shots when warranted.
Win the easy games
The Jets have to go 4-0 against the Bears, Jaguars, Lions, and Seahawks. Not optional.
Split within the division, at minimum
This means beating either New England or Miami twice or upsetting the Bills once. The Jets are 0-12 against the division in the past two seasons. That must change.
Split within the AFC North, at minimum
I personally believe the Jets have a chance to go 3-1 against the AFC North. Still, they need to come out with at least two wins in those four games to have a shot at postseason contention.
Of the remaining games, win AT LEAST one of Minnesota, Denver, and Green Bay
It’s debatable whether 10 wins will be enough to get into the playoffs in the competitive AFC, but bear in mind that many of the top teams will play each other multiple times throughout the season. Chances are that the North and West divisions will have a lot of jostling for position, leading to lower win totals than might be expected.
If 10 wins are enough, this category is simple: beat Minnesota. If not, they’ll have to do better in their division, beat an extra team in the AFC North, or, most dauntingly, beat either Green Bay or Denver. I do not believe the third is going to happen despite Green Bay’s potential jet lag.
When you break down the Jets’ schedule this way, it doesn’t seem so impossible. There are actually a few paths forward to the playoffs. Still, the collective hearts of Jets fans have been broken too many times to have such expectations until the Jets prove that they’re not just a team of potential.
Joe Douglas said that he wants to be playing meaningful games in December. Let’s see if the Jets can extend that to January.
