Here’s how the New York Jets can put a stop to their playoff drought in 2022
In the Super Bowl era, the New York Jets have 12 playoff victories, good for 20th in the NFL. Considering that a number of the teams below them are expansion teams (Panthers, Jaguars, Texans), that number is lower on a per-year basis, but still not as low as one might think.
The team’s current streak of 11 years since its last playoff appearance is the longest in the NFL – by five full years. When talking about heartbreak and snakebitten franchises, the Jets are among those at the top.
Every year, Jets fans look for answers. Almost every season, something else goes wrong.
So what can make this year different? Not too many people expect the Jets to make the playoffs, but the offseason is a time for hope. What needs to happen for the New York Jets to beat the odds and play postseason football?
It all starts with the quarterback
We don’t need to remind Jets fans of Zach Wilson‘s historically poor rookie season statistically. Regardless, there’s still optimism and faith among fans that Zach can make the leap.
Wilson does not need to become Joe Burrow overnight for this team to succeed, but he must, at the bare minimum, be better than Jimmy Garoppolo has – probably somewhere in the 2020 Ryan Tannehill neighborhood.
Though Wilson’s upside is far higher than that, we want to see him grow as a strong game manager with more big-play potential than either of the above QBs. Make the easy throws. Complete 65% of your passes. Throw close to 25 TDs. Get near 4,000 yards passing. Cut down on the sacks and picks. Stay healthy.
Be near average at stopping the run and above average at stopping the pass
The Jets’ defense was bad in all areas last year. With the personnel they currently have, it’s likely that the run defense will struggle.
The pass defense was well reinforced, though. Ending up somewhere in the 16-19 range league-wide against the run and top 10 against the pass can propel the Jets forward.
Rush the passer and get there
The return of Carl Lawson and the drafting of Jermaine Johnson are the key pieces here. John Franklin-Myers sliding back inside also increases the potency of the Jets’ attack. As Robert Saleh has said, the heat will force a QB into mistakes. The Jets need to get into the QB’s head.
Pound the rock
In the era of high-powered passing attacks, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry have shown what the value of a running back can still be.
Luckily, the Jets have two supremely talented ball carriers and a veteran insurance option. Mike LaFleur has committed to the 49ers’ wide-zone running system. Witnessing the success of relatively unknown players in that system gives confidence that Breece Hall and Michael Carter will thrive.
A top-five running game would take tremendous pressure off of Zach Wilson and the defense, shortening the game and allowing Wilson to manage the game and take shots when warranted.
Win the easy games
The Jets have to go 4-0 against the Bears, Jaguars, Lions, and Seahawks. Not optional.
Split within the division, at minimum
This means beating either New England or Miami twice or upsetting the Bills once. The Jets are 0-12 against the division in the past two seasons. That must change.
Split within the AFC North, at minimum
I personally believe the Jets have a chance to go 3-1 against the AFC North. Still, they need to come out with at least two wins in those four games to have a shot at postseason contention.
Of the remaining games, win AT LEAST one of Minnesota, Denver, and Green Bay
It’s debatable whether 10 wins will be enough to get into the playoffs in the competitive AFC, but bear in mind that many of the top teams will play each other multiple times throughout the season. Chances are that the North and West divisions will have a lot of jostling for position, leading to lower win totals than might be expected.
If 10 wins are enough, this category is simple: beat Minnesota. If not, they’ll have to do better in their division, beat an extra team in the AFC North, or, most dauntingly, beat either Green Bay or Denver. I do not believe the third is going to happen despite Green Bay’s potential jet lag.
When you break down the Jets’ schedule this way, it doesn’t seem so impossible. There are actually a few paths forward to the playoffs. Still, the collective hearts of Jets fans have been broken too many times to have such expectations until the Jets prove that they’re not just a team of potential.
Joe Douglas said that he wants to be playing meaningful games in December. Let’s see if the Jets can extend that to January.
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To me, the big question as far as the AFC playoffs this year is: how many teams from the West are going to the post-season? I don’t think all four can make it. It’s just mathematically difficult, if not impossible for that to happen in a 17-game/32 team/14 playoff slot NFL season. [Hypothetically, even if all four teams split their intradivisional games 3-3, and then all four go 8-3 on the others, for a four-way tie, that still leaves the “last place team” at 11-6. Some other second-place team in one of the other three divisions is likely to have a better record. And any other scenario leaves the last place team with a worse record.] But three playoff teams from the West is possible this year. I’m going to say it’s even likely.
Because of that, I don’t think IND (or any other team from the South) will make it as a WC. [The West plays the South in intraconference games this year. OTOH, they also play the NFC East, so…] But let’s say (for the sake of discussion) that TEN wins that division, and IND sits out the post-season with (at best) a 10-7 record. [Not a prediction.]
Which means the East and the North will battle it out to see which one team snags the remaining WC slot. If we pencil in BUF as the champ in the East (not exactly a longshot bet there), then we see two playoff slots split among BAL (perennial contender), PIT (perennial contender), NE (perennial contender), defending AFC champ CIN, CLE (with their shiny new QB), MIA (with their shiny new WR) and the plucky NYJ. And one of those two slots goes to the North divisional winner. [To add to the fun, those two divisions play each other this year in intraconference games.]
Thus, we have six of those seven teams fighting for the remaining slot. [If you’re a fan of the ponies, add IND and make it seven of eight.]
Are the NYJ the best team among those six or seven teams?
As you can see, the issue is not “are the NYJ are a playoff team?”, but rather “how insanely good is the AFC (especially the West) this year?”
When you put it that way, you end up with the exact reason that the Jets are a longshot to make the playoffs. The way things look on paper, these teams are all going to be better than the Jets.
But can you not see a scenario in which several of the following things happen?
1. Raiders underachieve – Carr-to-Adams notwithstanding, they cannot put it all together.
2. Broncos underachieve – Russell Wilson cannot regain his form from a few years ago.
3. Chiefs regress to the mean – the league has the blueprint for how to rattle Mahomes, and he hasn’t shown that he has answers so far. They lost Hill.
4. Ravens struggle – Rashod Bateman is their #1 receiver. Lamar Jackson is coming off an injury.
5. Steelers are mediocre – are you sold on Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky?
6. Cleveland is irrelevant without Watson (highly likely he is suspended for at least a good portion of the season).
7. Cincinnati regresses – Super Bowl loser malaise.
8. Tennessee and Indy remain okay-but-not-great teams.
9. Tua can’t get the Dolphins off the ground.
10. The Patriots’ lack of offseason progress comes back to bite them.
I know that that’s an awful lot of teams that are theoretically better than the Jets, but I believe that a chunk of them will underachieve compared to preseason expectations, and that some of them will just cancel each other out.
I’m not saying it’s like that the Jets make the playoffs. I do not actually believe they will. But when you break things down in terms of the team’s schedule, there is theoretically a way forward. The team needs to focus on their own opponents and forget about what is out of their control.
Yes. Plus that under-reported-on bugaboo for all NFL teams, the injuries, which will doom a few of those 11 teams (along with the Chargers and the Bills; shall I assume they are on your short list to make it to the AFC championship game?) before the season even begins.
But my point is that whole host of things need to go wrong with *half* of those 13 teams while nothing goes wrong with the NYJ. On top of that, none of these teams will experience the opposite of bad breaks, which are lucky bounces. In a normal, bell curve-like probability distribution, the odds on that happening are not something I’d bet my pension on.
I certainly hope I’m wrong here. But my definition of a successful season this year is getting to somewhere in the neighborhood of .500; seven or eight wins will do. My expectations for success go something like what Dallas achieved in the ’90s. Their first year under new coach Jimmy Johnson (1989) they went 1-15. The next year was a .500 year; 7-9. The year after that they made the playoffs and even won a game before being eliminated. The next year, finally, they won it all. Four years from basement to the penthouse. I’m OK with that. Three years from now, maybe the AFC won’t be so muscle-bound; who knows?
So, this year I’m only looking forward to watching the NYJ make some of the above-referenced teams with playoff hopes miserable in November and December. When I was watching the Super Bowl a few months back, I kept saying to myself that the NYJ beat CIN last year and the LAR the year before. [Similar sentiments in the CIN-TEN playoff game.] “Any given Sunday,” eh?
I agree with everything you said. Still, crazier things have happened than a team with the Jets’ talent making the playoffs, so it pays to hypothesize about how it can happen.
I think Buffalo will come out of the AFC this season. The Chargers always manage to underperform despite their talent, but I’m not betting against them, either.
The Jimmy Johnson Cowboys comparison is fair. This season is about staying in games and developing the QB.
So… just out of curiosity: how many teams do you see coming out of the AFC West this post-season?
My honest opinion? Three. I have a feeling that either Denver or Las Vegas will find a way to choke, but not both.
I’d go with Vegas as well.
BTW, I was just thinking: if the NYJ *do* go the way of the 90’s Cowboys, then Jamal Adams would be our Herschel Walker. 🙂
That’s a great point! Hopefully for the Jets!
Great article, Rivka! Thanks!
Thank you!
Great article, Rivka. Thanks! Excellent breakdown of the pathway. I think they will split with Miami and NE.
Thank you! I also believe so… but that means either beat the Bills once or be behind the eight ball.
I enjoy reading your articles,I look forward to following them throughout the season,along with robbies
Thank you! I appreciate it!
Brilliant. I concur on all points. And I believe you laid out the path I see to 10-7.
When I had written that this was a best-case scenario, a commenter (you? someone else?) wrote that it could easily get to 11-6, so I included that possibility.
We can only hope, but your points about the Central, our division and opponents we should beat were spot on. We have to stay healthy, the kid has to keep improving and we prolly need a ball or two to bounce our way, but hey…we’re due. And the roster is so vastly improved. Can’t wait.
The roster improvement makes this team exciting for 2022 and beyond.
Yes, they will do better this year, vastly improved in most areas. Just keep the pressure on the other Q.B. and control the time of possession! Can’t wait! Just extend THIS season!
Time of possession is going to be a critical factor this season.