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Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
| Team or Player | Logo | Divisional Round Odds BetMGM Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills |  | 💰 -5.5 (-110) spread vs. Cincinnati Bengals |
| Cincinnati Bengals |  | 💰 +5.5 (-110) spread at Buffalo Bills |
| Buffalo Bills | | 💰 -250 moneyline vs. Cincinnati Bengals |
| Cincinnati Bengals | | 💰 +200 moneyline at Buffalo Bills |
| Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals | | 💰 Over 48.5 (-110) 💰 Under 48.5 (-110) |
| Josh Allen |  | 💰 Over-Under 276.5 (-120/-110) passing yards vs. Cincinnati Bengals |
| Joe Burrow |  | 💰 Over-Under 279.5 (-115/-115) passing yards at Buffalo Bills |
The line on this matchup is somewhat strange, as the Bills are 5.5-point favorites despite having trailed 7-3 against Cincinnati before the original matchup was suspended and ultimately canceled. The Bengals appeared red-hot in that game and were driving prior to the cancellation. Still, BetMGM’s model picks the Bills to cover with 58% confidence, per their site.
It’s hard to bet against Joe Burrow’s playoff success, as the former No. 1 overall pick improved his record to 4-1 with last week’s victory over the Ravens. However, Burrow did not play particularly well in that game, going 25-for-42 for 215 yards (5.1 YPA) with one TD, no picks, and an 81 passer rating. The Bills have the horses to shut down Burrow’s weapons, as they tied (with the Jets) for second in the league with just 18.6 points per game allowed.
Still, a 5.5-point spread seems steep. Even if you believe the Bills will win this game, there’s a fair chance they will not cover. How about using the BetMGM bet insurance to pick the Bengals to cover the spread, if not win outright?
Emotional Rematch
The entire world will be watching the rematch between the Bills and Bengals following Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest on the field less than three weeks ago. Hamlin’s pulse was restored through CPR and AED administration by Bills’ assistant trainer Denny Kellington, who received an MVP vote from Suzy Kolber in recognition of his heroism. The trauma team at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center gave Damar the best care possible, leading to his discharge back to Buffalo and, eventually, back home.
The Bills’ spirits have been buoyed by hearing from their teammate and friend and seeing with their own eyes that he’s on the road to recovery. In the team’s battle with the New England Patriots the week after the incident, Nyhiem Hines authored NFL poetry when he returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. Hines followed it up with a second TD return later in the game as Buffalo wiped out New England.
Still, as much as emotions play a role in football, the players are the leading actors. Burrow and Allen are two of the NFL’s playoff heavyweights at the QB position. Buffalo’s defense was better in the regular season, but the Bengals’ D has come on strong, ranking 11th in total defensive DVOA. The defensive battle in this game will be as intriguing as the quarterback competition.
The Bengals will be fired up in their own right, as receiver Tee Higgins was the one whose routine run into Hamlin started the unfortunate chain of events. Higgins received support from Hamlin’s family after some fans foolishly attempted to criticize him for a normal football play. The Bengals’ No. 2 receiver would be a No. 1 on many teams and was sixth among all receivers in DVOA this season.
Best Bets, Bills vs. Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase, Anytime TD: +110
Although the Bills ranked ninth in total pass defense DVOA, they were 29th against No. 1 receivers. Tre’ White’s return helped with that somewhat, but as Garrett Wilson demonstrated, White can be turned around by proficient route runners.
Chase did not have quite as strong of a sophomore season as his rookie campaign, but he still ranked 20th among receivers in DYAR with 190 despite missing five games. He also broke the 1,000-yard mark and scored nine TDs in 12 games.
Chase is a good bet to get in the end zone as the Bills struggle to cover the Bengals’ elite receiver trio.
Josh Allen: under 276.5 passing yards (-110)
The Bengals ranked 23rd in the NFL in allowing 227.9 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Still, their total pass defense DVOA was 12th in the NFL, which would indicate that a lot of those passing yards were not high-leverage.
Ultimately, the timing of the yardage doesn’t matter for the bet, but I see this game as a closely fought contest that will require some rushing from both sides. Josh Allen tried to play way too much hero ball last week, and I believe Ken Dorsey will exhort him to be more conservative with the ball to avoid turnovers.
276.5 is a high number, even above Allen’s season-long average of 267.8 passing yards per game. Although Allen averages 295.7 passing yards per game in his postseason career and he threw for 352 yards last week against the Dolphins, I don’t see him exceeding that total in this game.
