Did the New York Jets do enough to make their run defense no longer a concern?
In 2022, most New York Jets fans and analysts were screaming for additions to their run defense before the start of the season. The Jets essentially stood pat and finished 10th in rush defense DVOA one year after finishing 26th.
The question is if the landscape is all that different entering 2023. The Jets’ run defense was shaky despite fairly strong statistics. Meanwhile, they lost two key players from their 2022 run defense and have yet to replace one of them.
Have the Jets done enough to address their run defense this offseason, or does it remain a weak point?
Run defense is a difficult area to evaluate analytically. Defensive “stops,” characterized by an offensive failure (in the form of negative Expected Points Added), do not tell the entire story. Tackles for loss fall into a similar category. Pure tackles say nothing about who actually made the play, only who happened to get credit for the final stop. Missed tackle rate can give a clue but is also limited. Because run defense is leverage-based, it often takes film study to know if a player performs well in the run game.
That’s where Pro Football Focus grades come in. Much as I don’t like to use them in place of “real” statistics, they’re the best way to quantify run defense right now. I will utilize their grades in this analysis along with Michael Nania’s charting from last season for Jets defenders. When the two do not concur, I will defer to Nania’s numbers.
Edge defender
- Returned: Carl Lawson (48.8 PFF run defense grade), John Franklin-Myers (76.8), Jermaine Johnson (68.7), Micheal Clemons (86.4), Bryce Huff (64.9)
- Added: Will McDonald (70.7 college grade)
- Subtracted: Vinny Curry (50.2)
PFF did not like Carl Lawson’s play in the run game, but Michael disagreed. Lawson’s 1.71 ratio of positive-to-negative plays in Nania’s charting was sixth-best on the team and above the expected league average of about 1.3. PFF’s graders might have been seeing Lawson’s low stop rate (4.6%, tied for 69th out of 88 qualified edge defenders) and his high miss rate (17.4%, ranked 74th), but he set a better edge than those stats give him credit for.
The Jets kept John Franklin-Myers outside precisely because he is an excellent and underrated edge-setter. In this area, PFF and Michael were in accord; Franklin-Myers’ 76.8 grade ranked 12th out of 88 qualified edge defenders, and Michael graded him as the Jets’ fourth-best run defender, by far the best among their starters with a 2.38 ratio. He had a +18 margin of positive-to-negative plays, which ranked third on the team.
After a rough start, Jermaine Johnson lived up to his college reputation as rock-solid against the run. PFF gave him a 68.7 grade (29th), while Michael charted him at a 1.5 ratio. Still, Johnson’s 9.8% stop rate ranked sixth among edge defenders, which means that he had a quantifiable impact on the run game.
Micheal Clemons was also statistically strong, posting an 8.1% run-stop rate, which ranked 14th out of 88 qualified edge defenders (min. 160 run defense snaps). Clemons was PFF’s highest-graded edge defender against the run at 86.4, and Michael charted him at a 3.67 ratio, the second-highest on the team.
Bryce Huff played only 16 run defense snaps all season, and all of them were in third-and-long situations where the offense ran a draw play. Huff is a well below-average run defender, which is why the Jets did not increase his snap count despite his league-leading pass-rushing efficiency.
Losing Vinny Curry doesn’t do much at all to the Jets’ defense, as despite his solid 7.0% run stop rate, he also missed three tackles for an 18.8% miss rate in the run game. Meanwhile, the addition of Will McDonald was not made for run defense purposes, at least in his rookie season. At 239 pounds and often having played 4/4i-tech for much of his college career, McDonald has a long way to go in the run game. As Joe Blewett pointed out in his review of McDonald, the rookie definitely does not have horrible instincts in the run game, but there’s a lot of room for work.
Overall, the edge position on run plays probably will not change that much. Clemons and Johnson are likely to see more work on the edge on early downs. Substituting Clemons in place of Lawson could actually help the Jets’ run defense even more.
Defensive tackle
- Returned: Quinnen Williams (77.7), Solomon Thomas (47.8)
- Added: Al Woods (65.2), Quinton Jefferson (40.7)
- Subtracted: Sheldon Rankins (67.5), Nathan Shepherd (58.6)
Quinnen Williams was a strong two-way player in 2022. He often ate up double-teams to allow other Jets defenders to hustle to the ball. Williams’ 77.7 PFF run defense grade ranked seventh out of 72 qualified interior defensive linemen, and Michael charted him with a 2.32 ratio, the fifth-best on the team. Williams also had the highest positive differential at +29.
Sheldon Rankins was the Jets’ other starter last season and made a big improvement in the run game. Still, Michael charted him at a 1.38 ratio, which is roughly average; his 67.5 PFF grade ranked 26th, which is above average. Rankins’ 26th-ranked 8.4% run stop rate likely had something to do with his PFF grade. Al Woods, his replacement in the run game, had a slightly lower PFF grade at 65.2. Still, Woods’ run-stop rate was similar at 8.5%.
Quinton Jefferson’s 40.7 PFF grade explains exactly who he is as a run defender: a supreme liability. The Jets will try to get him off the field on early downs. However, they gave Solomon Thomas 178 run defense snaps last season despite Thomas’ 47.8 PFF grade, which concurred with Michael’s 0.92 ratio. Thomas was heavily involved in whatever run defense struggles the Jets had, as was Nathan Shepherd. The good news is that Thomas and Jefferson are highly unlikely to be on the field at the same time in run defense, unlike how Thomas and Shepherd came on together last year.
All in all, getting Williams and Woods on the field together on early downs as much as possible would help the Jets’ run defense.
Linebacker
- Returned: C.J. Mosley (73.8), Quincy Williams (60.8), Jamien Sherwood (80.4), Chazz Surratt (N/A), Hamsah Nasirildeen (63.2)
- Added: Zaire Barnes (88.9, college)
- Subtracted: Kwon Alexander (63.6), Marcell Harris (71.3)
Mosley ranked fifth on the team with 8.9 plays saved over average and second on the team with a +22 margin between good and bad run play. His 73.8 PFF grade ranked 22nd out of 82 linebackers with at least 150 run defense snaps, which is fairly accurate in terms of how he played.
Quincy Williams is the ultimate boom-or-bust player in the run game. His 44 positive plays ranked third on the team behind only Quinnen and Mosley. However, his 29 negative plays were the second-most on the team. He did still save 5.2 plays more than average, which makes his 53rd-ranked 60.8 PFF grade slightly unfair, especially since his 9.6% stop rate tied for 11th among linebackers. Even his 9.3% miss rate in the run game wasn’t too far below average, ranking 43rd out of 82. (It was in the passing game where his missed tackles were the most costly.)
Sherwood had just 14 snaps in run defense, while Nasirildeen had four, so their grades don’t mean much. Sherwood did show some flashes of good instincts on those snaps, as he had five positive plays and just one negative play with 3.2 plays saved over average.
Zaire Barnes’ strong PFF run defense grade could be part of why the Jets drafted him. I predicted that he will make the Jets’ 53-man roster, although I’m not sure how much of a defensive role he will have. I think he might play primarily special teams barring injury.
Harris had just 43 run defense snaps, so losing him isn’t anything major. It’s the loss of Alexander, which I believe will stick, that is more detrimental. Despite his 47th-ranked 63.6 PFF grade, Michael ranked Alexander as the Jets’ fourth-best run defender in 2022 with 11.2 plays saved over average. His 2.31 ratio was also significantly above the 1.3 average.
Cornerback
- Returned: Sauce Gardner (69.2), D.J. Reed (47.2), Michael Carter II (78.4), Brandin Echols (31.1 in 2021), Bryce Hall (53.1 in 2021)
- Added: Javelin Guidry (53.2 in 2021)
- Subtracted: N/A
Sauce Gardner made the occasional business decision in run defense, but he was fine overall, ranking 31st out of 84 cornerbacks in PFF run defense grade. His 1.57 ratio and 1.6 plays saved are consistent with that PFF grade.
D.J. Reed had a highly disappointing season in run defense; in the previous two years, he had posted PFF grades of 87.2 and 85.8, respectively, in that area. Michael had him at -0.1 plays saved and a 1.30 ratio, which is not terrible (it’s just about average) but shows up on film as egregious misses. A bounce-back year from Reed as a run defender could go a long way for the Jets.
Michael Carter II was one of PFF’s most overrated run defenders, per Michael. His PFF grade was ninth-best among cornerbacks, but Michael graded him at a 1.25 ratio and -0.6 plays saved. Again, that’s not too far below average, but PFF considered Carter II a strong run defender. In fact, Carter II is one of the reasons I think the Jets will play big nickel more often; they’d rather get Chuck Clark into his position as often as possible to help with run defense.
In 2021, when Brandin Echols and Bryce Hall were the Jets’ starting cornerbacks, both players graded out poorly. Echols, in particular, is a dime cornerback for a reason: the Jets don’t want him out there on running downs. Javelin Guidry also doesn’t perform well as a run defender (should he make the roster).
I did not include Justin Hardee here because he is a cornerback in name only.
Safety
- Returned: Jordan Whitehead (59.4), Tony Adams (83.7), Ashtyn Davis (43.1 in 2021)
- Added: Chuck Clark (76.9), Adrian Amos (69.7), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (71.5 at cornerback in college), Trey Dean (69.7 in college)
- Subtracted: Lamarcus Joyner (62.1), Will Parks (74.4)
Whitehead’s PFF grade reflects Michael’s assessment of him as a run defender: he was the 55th-ranked safety out of 77 and the worst run defender on the Jets, posting -9.5 plays saved and a 0.93 ratio. He actually had two more negative plays than positive ones in the run game. For all his reputation as a hard hitter, Whitehead is more boom-or-bust than Quincy Williams, and his busts are more frequent than his booms.
Clark is a very solid addition for the Jets’ run defense. He was the 16th-best safety in that area in 2022, per PFF, and his 6.9% missed tackle rate was 13th-best. Amos also graded out well as a run defender, which he has done consistently throughout his career.
Adams had only 56 run defense snaps, but his 83.7 PFF grade was second on the Jets. He had 2.6 plays saved on those few snaps, showing promise for a possible increased role in 2023. He also posted an excellent 7.1% stop rate; the best qualified safety had a 6.8% rate. Davis barely played defense last year, but his 2021 PFF grade speaks for itself.
Bernard-Converse is likely going to be transitioned to safety in the NFL. I have him making the roster over Dean, but it’s possible that both of them will make it. Despite Dean’s reputation as a downhill safety, Bernard-Converse also did a fairly good job against the run as a cornerback.
Losing Joyner is an addition by subtraction. 62.1 was a generous grade for his run defense. He had a 0.45 ratio and -8.1 plays saved over average. On 96 run snaps, Parks was reasonably effective, posting a 2.67 ratio and 3.5 plays saved over average.
Overall outlook
Retaining Whitehead and losing Alexander might be the two biggest concerns for the Jets’ run defense. Both of those areas could have used upgrades.
As of now, it appears that the team plans to run Clark out at free safety and keep Whitehead in the strong position, which means that there will be no reduction in Whitehead’s role. Ideally, Clark would be Whitehead’s replacement, which would be a tremendous upgrade in run defense. Amos would also be an upgrade over Whitehead, although it is unclear where he fits into the picture, as he is yet another box safety.
Sherwood could replace Alexander as the weakside linebacker and perform capably in the run game. He certainly showed flashes in a limited sample size. However, as a converted safety, it remains to be seen if he has the play strength and technique to be consistent in the run game. Then again, Alexander is just 227 pounds, so the size issue is mitigated if a player has good leverage and gap discipline. Robert Saleh referred to wanting to monitor Sherwood’s progress in that area.
Losing Rankins could hurt in the run game, but mainly on downs that could be both run or pass. In general, Woods will likely see the field a lot on early downs, which could actually end up being an upgrade. He is certainly more likely to be consistent than Rankins, who was atrocious against the run in 2021 before rebounding in 2022.
The biggest wild cards for the Jets’ run defense are Sherwood, Quincy Williams, and Reed. Sherwood is an unknown, as stated before. There is still hope that Williams can improve and be a little less boom-or-bust, which could make a huge difference. A Reed bounceback would pay dividends. Mosley could be a little bit of a wild card, as well, given his age.
The Jets have a number of excellent run defenders along the edge. Lawson, Johnson, and Clemons almost singlehandedly oversaw the team’s improvement in this area from 2021 to 2022.
Could the Jets’ run defense still be a concern? Yes, primarily because of Quincy Williams, Whitehead, and the weakside linebacker position. However, it definitely looks a lot better than it did last offseason. It would be surprising to see this aspect of the defense decline significantly in 2023.
