The New York Jets’ defense should aim for the stars against Atlanta
The New York Jets have not been themselves on defense over the last two weeks. They allowed 393 total yards to the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 and 395 yards to the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. Those marks stand as their fourth and third-worst totals since the start of the 2022 season. It is the first time since 2021 that the Jets have allowed more than 370 yards in back-to-back games.
While those were two high-quality opponents and the defense received no help from a despicable offense, those obstacles did not stop the Jets’ defense earlier in the season when the offense was equally inept and the opponents were equally strong. The defense simply has not been playing up to the lofty standards they have established for themselves over the past two seasons.
Considering this, it’s likely the defense is going to come out on Sunday with a surge of intense motivation as they aim to swiftly end their slump and get back to playing elite football.
Couple that motivation with a vulnerable opponent, and there is a very good opportunity for New York to enjoy an afternoon of complete dominance on defense.
Despite a myriad of weapons and a lot of hype in the offseason, the Atlanta Falcons are a subpar offensive team, ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. They are especially poor on the road. The Falcons rank 27th with 15.0 points per game on the road, which is the root of their 1-4 road record.
The Jets’ defense has a chance to put together a signature game on Sunday. We’re not talking about one of those games where they play “pretty good” (think 13-17 points allowed with a takeaway or two) and would’ve won if the offense were just okay. No, sir. We’re talking about a performance so great that the Jets can win the game even if the offense puts out its usual single-digit stinker.
Atlanta scored no more than seven points in two of its five road games. Those two games came in back-to-back weeks; they scored 6 points at Detroit in Week 3 and 7 points at Jacksonville in Week 4. Each of the Falcons’ opponents in those games possessed a strong defense, although neither was as strong as the Jets. Jacksonville is fifth in defensive DVOA and Detroit is 10th. New York is fourth.
Those are the only two road games that Atlanta has played against a top-10 defense based on DVOA. Across their other three road games, the Falcons averaged 20.7 points per game.
When the Falcons’ offense has headed on the road to play great defenses this season, they have been completely embarrassed. If Jacksonville and Detroit can accomplish that, then the Jets – who have a better defense than both teams – can absolutely do it.
How can the Jets replicate Jacksonville and Detroit’s home cooking against Atlanta’s offense? Here are the keys to pulling it off.
1. Convert pressures into sacks
Interestingly, the Jaguars and Lions actually didn’t do an amazing job of applying pressure on Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder. Across the two games, Atlanta allowed pressure on 37.5% of its passing plays, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranked 16th-lowest from Weeks 3-4.
What the Jaguars and Lions did do extremely well is turn those pressures into sacks.
The Falcons allowed 11 sacks over those two games, tied for the third-most in the NFL over that span. Considering the Falcons did not allow a ton of pressure, this means they allowed an extremely high pressure-to-sack conversion rate.
Ridder was sacked on 11 of his 30 pressured dropbacks, a 36.7% rate that ranked fourth-worst over that span. For perspective, that’s nearly double the NFL average this season, which is 20.1%.
The Jets are likely to create a lot of pressure on Ridder tomorrow, as they have effortlessly generated pressure against nearly every opponent this season. But they have to translate those pressures into a bevy of sacks if they plan on dominating Atlanta. Otherwise, they will probably only have a “pretty good” defensive performance instead of a mesmerizing one.
Detroit and Jacksonville’s sack production is the primary outlier that stands between those two games and the rest of Atlanta’s games. Outside of that stretch, Ridder has done a decent job of avoiding sacks. 11 of his 25 sacks this season came in those two games. In Week 12, Ridder was not sacked once against New Orleans.
For the Jets to rack up sacks on Ridder to the degree that Detroit and Jacksonville did, the key is to get home quickly. Against Detroit and Jacksonville, Ridder’s average sack occurred 3.09 seconds after the snap, which is very fast. For perspective, that would rank as the seventh-fastest average snap-to-sack time among 39 qualified quarterbacks this season.
Effective blitzing is a crucial part of getting this done. The Jets don’t necessarily have to blitz a lot, but they must be effective when doing so. Five of Ridder’s 11 sacks came on plays where he was blitzed (5+ pass rushers). This is despite Ridder seeing only 19 blitzes in those games, which means he was sacked a whopping 26.3% of the time when blitzed (league average is 9.6%).
In preparation for this game, the Jets’ pass rushers must place a heavy emphasis on wrapping up when they get home. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich must focus on choosing the correct moments to dial up the blitz. If the team can tick these two boxes, plenty of sacks should be on the way.
Looking at individual players, Quinnen Williams is someone who should have a great chance of breaking out in the sack department. Williams has been having a phenomenal year in just about every category besides the sack column (2.0). This could be the week he starts catching up to his 2022 pace.
Williams primarily lines up on the right side of the Jets’ defensive line, which means he will spend most of the game matching up against Falcons left guard Matthew Bergeron. This is a juicy matchup. Bergeron has allowed a pressure rate of 10.6% in true pass sets, ranking 48th out of 59 qualified guards (min. 100 true pass sets). Williams has generated a 20% pressure rate in true pass sets, ranking fifth-best among 52 qualified defensive tackles (min. 100 true pass sets).
Atlanta likes to get the ball out quickly, which helps them keep true pass sets to a minimum. Ridder averages 2.63 seconds from snap to throw, ranking eighth-quickest among 35 qualified quarterbacks (min. 150 dropbacks). This lightens the burden on the offensive line, as they have to play fewer reps in which they are asked to hold up for a long time.
However, against the Jets’ elite secondary, Ridder will likely be forced into holding the ball longer than usual, creating more opportunities for Williams and the Jets’ pass rushers to tee off on Atlanta’s offensive line in true pass set scenarios.
Don’t just create pressure, but finish when you do. That is the primary key for New York Sunday.
2. Shut down Drake London
Second-year wide receiver Drake London is the focal point of Atlanta’s passing attack, leading the team in receptions (45), receiving yards (565), and receiving first downs (32).
Atlanta’s success is closely attached to London’s success. Across six games where London recorded at least five receptions and 54 receiving yards, the Falcons are 4-2. In his other four games, where London recorded maximums of three receptions and 36 receiving yards, the Falcons went 1-3. They also lost the one game that London missed.
Two of London’s worst games came in Atlanta’s single-digit outings against Detroit and Jacksonville. London caught 2-of-6 targets for 31 yards against Detroit and 3-of-7 targets for 28 yards against Jacksonville (although he had a touchdown). Those stand as two of his three worst games of the season in terms of receiving yards, catch rate, and yards per target.
Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed must enforce their will against Atlanta’s big-bodied weapon on the outside.
3. Limit Bijan Robinson through the air
Rookie running back Bijan Robinson has made some game-changing plays for Atlanta in the passing game. Robinson leads the team with three receiving touchdowns, and the Falcons are 3-0 when he catches a touchdown. They are 2-6 when he does not catch a touchdown.
The Jets have had some trouble covering running backs this year. They have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game (41.5) and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (4) to running backs. Linebackers C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams must be prepared for Robinson to leak out of the backfield and make plays as a receiver.
Against Detroit and Jacksonville, Robinson made plenty of receptions but did not do much with them. He caught 4-of-6 passes for 27 yards against Detroit and 5-of-5 passes for 32 yards against Jacksonville. Ultimately, Robinson averaged only 6.8 yards per reception against the Lions and 6.4 against the Jaguars, both falling over a full yard below his season average of 7.9 in all other games.
Robinson will get his share of receptions. As long as the Jets keep him in front of them, they will have a great chance to prevent Atlanta from scoring any touchdowns through the air. In 11 games, the Falcons have only thrown seven touchdown passes to players outside of Robinson (0.6 per game).
Simply hold Robinson in check as a receiver, and the Jets’ elite secondary should be able to silence Atlanta’s other weapons – therefore buying plenty of time for the pass rush to operate. And if the pass rush can take advantage by converting those opportunities into sacks, the Jets will be on their way to a tremendous defensive performance on Sunday.
4. Stuff the first-down run game
Our first three keys won’t matter if the Jets allow Atlanta to go crazy on the ground. Unless the Jets put Atlanta into long-distance second and third downs, the Falcons will happily rely on the run game, screens, and quick passes all day long. This game plan would minimize the number of opportunities for New York’s pass rush to tee off and negate the impact of the Jets’ cornerbacks on the outside.
To prevent Atlanta from neutralizing the Jets’ advantages, New York has to stuff the first-down run game. This way, they can force Ridder into taking long dropbacks on second and third down, which would allow the cornerbacks to enforce their will in coverage and buy time for the pass rush to get home.
Detroit and Jacksonville did an excellent job of this. Across the two games, Atlanta averaged only 2.8 yards per run play on first down.
The lack of rushing success on first down caused Atlanta to face unfavorable situations on second and third down. Their average to-go distance on second down was 8.5 yards (fifth-longest in NFL from Weeks 3-4), and on third down, their average to-go distance was almost identical at 8.4 yards (third-longest).
With complete control of the down-and-distance battle, Detroit and Jacksonville were able to force Atlanta into obvious passing situations that emphasized their weaknesses in that phase of the game. Unsurprisingly, this led to Atlanta constantly making costly mistakes.
Stopping Atlanta’s first-down run game is all about containing the edge. Atlanta goes outside of the tackles on a league-high 78% of its first-down rush attempts. This means the Jets’ edge rushers and defensive backs must be prepared for a heavy workload on the ground.
Detroit and Jacksonville successfully thwarted these outside runs, allowing 2.8 yards per carry on first-down rush attempts to the outside. This was thanks to tremendous run support on the outside. Across the two games, Detroit and Jacksonville’s edge defenders and defensive backs combined for 28 tackles and only three missed tackles against the run.
While the players did an excellent job, the coaches also deserve credit for an aggressive game plan that worked like a charm. Both coaching staffs placed a heavy emphasis on stacking the box. Atlanta faced a loaded box (more defenders than blockers in the box) on 64% of its first-down rush attempts from Weeks 3-4, which led the NFL over that span. This is a plan that Jeff Ulbrich should strongly consider mimicking.
Atlanta is one of the most run-heavy teams in football, ranking third in the league with a 48.6% run play rate. They want to run the football and will attempt to establish that part of their offense early and often. If they are successful, all of the Jets’ advantages will be negated, allowing the Falcons to control the pace of the game and win the field-position battle.
And, yes, even if the Jets get gashed on the ground, they will probably hold up in the red zone a few times and ultimately hold the Falcons to a modest day on the scoreboard. But if the Jets’ defense wants to take the bull by the horns and win this game by themselves – leaving nothing to Tim Boyle – they have to obliterate Atlanta’s offense, and that will not be possible without consistent success against the first-down run game.
As the Lions and Jaguars showed, if you’re a talented defensive team facing the Falcons at home, all you need to do is shut down the first-down run game and everything else will trickle down from there.
