The New York Jets have many holes and few options on their offensive line
The biggest Hard Knocks narrative became a headline for the New York Jets throughout the 2023 season.
After Robert Saleh chewed out his offensive line during the preseason, those struggles carried over to the regular season in a league-worst way. The Jets ranked in the bottom three in the NFL in virtually all blocking-related categories, from Pro Football Focus grades to sack rates to yards before contact.
This offseason, the Jets have been busy telling the world that Aaron Rodgers will make it all disappear. However, the Wild Card playoffs put on full display that this is simply not the case. In today’s NFL, a quarterback is only as good as his supporting cast. Pass protection is the first line of defense in that area.
The problem is that the Jets have at least two glaring holes on the line. Both tackle spots must be filled this offseason. The question of Laken Tomlinson looms large, as well. There may be a potential solution that can give the Jets some relief while also catering to their preferences.
Tomlinson’s performance
Over his two years with the Jets, Tomlinson has been nothing short of abysmal. He took his already poor 2022 season to new lows in 2023. Here are his statistics and rankings out of 65 qualified guards (min. 300 pass block snaps and 185 run block snaps).
- 7% pressure rate (57th)
- 0.95% sack rate (55th)
- 10.3% true pass set pressure rate (52nd) – A true pass set is a pass play where the ball is released between 2-4 seconds with at least 4 pass rushers and no play-action or screen.
- 1.67% true pass set sack rate (52nd)
- 3.8% non-true pass set pressure rate (58th)
- 49.6 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade (56th)
- 366 snaps per penalty (16th)
Pretty much the only thing Tomlinson did well was avoid penalties. As both a pass-blocker and a run-blocker, he was a bottom-10 guard in the NFL. This is not a starter-level performance. Compare his numbers to Nate Herbig’s from 2022:
- 4.2% pressure rate
- 0.2% sack rate
- 7.7% true pass set pressure rate
- 1.7% non-true pass set pressure rate
- 55.7 PFF run-blocking grade
- 106 snaps per penalty
The only area in which Tomlinson came close to outdoing Herbig’s 2022 performance is in penalty rate. Herbig was significantly better in both the pass and run phases of the game. Herbig is now on a two-year, $8 million contract with the Steelers, though he appeared in only three games for them this season. Imagine how much more stable the Jets’ line could have been with Herbig at guard instead of Tomlinson.
The problem
There are two issues the Jets face if they want to release Tomlinson. One is that it opens up yet another hole on the offensive line when they already have two. The second is the dead cap involved.
If the Jets want to cut Tomlinson before June 1, they’ll incur a $10.7 million dead cap charge while saving $8.1 million. That is likely enough cap space saved to replace him with a competent starter, as players of Kevin Zeitler’s ilk are unlikely to garner more than that. Still, it’s a hefty sum to swallow.
On the other hand, if they wait until after June 1 to release Tomlinson, the Jets can save $13 million with only $5.9 million in dead cap. That is a lot more palatable for any team. The primary issue with this is that the savings will not take effect until after June 1, which doesn’t give the Jets the cap relief they need to sign other players. In that case, Tomlinson’s full $18.9 million cap hit would count until after June 1. Still, the Jets can try other cap gymnastics to make this work.
There is a third route they can follow — and this one might actually be the most likely to happen.
The other option
The Jets can ask Tomlinson to take a pay cut just as they did with Carl Lawson last season. Tomlinson is likely to accept the cut primarily because his value on the market would be quite low. The Jets won’t owe him any money if they release him, which means he has $13 million on the line.
How far can the Jets push his pay cut? That likely depends on what he thinks he’s worth on the free-agent market. He will be entering his age-32 season and coming off back-to-back poor seasons after several solid seasons in San Francisco. His only real asset is his durability; he has played every game in six consecutive seasons. While that is worth something, it’s difficult to gauge how much.
Over the Cap values Tomlinson at just $3.9 million, but their valuation rarely matches the pay a player receives. Tomlinson does have his former Pro Bowl pedigree, but he’s also getting up in age.
Last year, Lawson took a $6 million pay cut in the final season of his deal. It reduced his total cap hit from $15 million to $9 million. Lawson was coming off a far better year than Tomlinson is; he managed to stay healthy and played as an average edge defender, posting an 11.3% pressure rate (right at the league average in 2022) and playing decent run defense. Still, $9 million was roughly what he would have been worth in free agency, so his salary was reduced to that amount.
How much lower than $13 million can the Jets cut Tomlinson’s total salary? Can they get him to take a $5-6 million pay cut? That would be enough to sign another guard to compete with him or to play on the other side if they choose to move Alijah Vera-Tucker to tackle.
Tomlinson was so bad this past year that he deserves to be released. However, the Jets tend to hold on to their own, as demonstrated by Lawson last year. If that is going to happen, Tomlinson must make it worth their while for the Jets to make their whole offensive line work.
