The New York Jets have some players who may be due for regression
When a player has a breakout season, the natural inclination is to assume that they will continue to produce at a high level. The same goes for long-time veterans: it’s hard to predict any regression until it actually happens. However, sometimes it is just one magical season, and veterans tend to hit a wall rather quickly.
The New York Jets are relying on several breakout players, as well as key veterans on the wrong side of 30. Their candidates for regression fall into those two categories. Here are four Jets players who could take a step back in 2024.
LB Quincy Williams
Some considered Quincy Williams’ three-year, $18 million contract during the 2023 offseason an overpay. Then Williams went on to produce a first-team All-Pro season. He led all linebackers with 8 pass breakups and 52 run stops (tackles that constitute a failure by the offense). Williams was voted by his teammates as the Jets’ team MVP in 2023.
However, Williams was still a lot shakier than Jets fans recognize. He allowed four touchdowns into his coverage, and his boom-or-bust playing style cost the Jets big chunks when he missed. Williams will always have the ceiling to make many splashy plays because of his speed and tackle radius, but if his big plays in coverage fall off, he could regress to the Quincy Williams from 2021-22: many splash plays but too many costly whiffs in the run game and coverage.
QB Aaron Rodgers
This one falls into the category of Captain Obvious. At 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, Aaron Rodgers is a prime candidate for regression. Many quarterbacks hit a sudden wall; Peyton Manning in the second half of the 2014 season was a prime example. While Rodgers’ arm strength seems intact (unlike Manning’s, which was shot), his age alone is a risk factor. Furthermore, his play was “okay” at best in 2022, and it remains to be seen if that was an aberration due to a poor supporting cast and a broken thumb or a sign of things to come.
RT Morgan Moses
Morgan Moses is coming off back-to-back strong seasons with the Ravens, including the best pass-blocking numbers of his career. He has posted 4.3% and 5.3% pressure rates over the past two seasons, considerably better than the 5.5% and 6.2% positional averages.
Still, the last time he was with the Jets in 2021, his 7.2% pressure rate was downright ugly. His run-blocking has been solid throughout, so that aspect of his game is more likely to remain positive. However, there’s a chance that outside the cushy confines of the Ravens’ offense and blocking for an immobile quarterback, Moses could take a tumble.
WR Mike Williams
Mike Williams is also in the realm of obvious. Much of the Jets’ passing offense depends on his health. However, just as important as whether he can stay on the field is whether he can maintain the level of play he’s posted for the past few seasons. A 30-year-old receiver coming off a torn ACL is a candidate for regression. In particular, Williams’ contested-catch play style tends to suddenly fall off a cliff. If Williams can’t maintain his career 54.3% contested catch rate, he could become another has-been quickly.
