The new rules may change the New York Jets’ approach to the kickoff
In 1982, the New York Jets were done in by the mud. In 2024, they want to ensure it’s not something else.
The ’82 Jets were widely considered a better team than the Miami Dolphins. It was a fluky (or not-so-fluky) situation that tilted the field in Miami’s favor.
In 2024, the Jets’ roster strength rivals virtually any other in the NFL. They are currently favorites in 15 of 17 games.
But a quirky rule change could counterbalance the Jets’ advantages. Any new rule can cause unusual or unexpected outcomes. The change in the kickoff rules could cause even more chaos.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero stated that some teams see the new kickoff as the equivalent of playing Cover-0 on every play. Cover-0 is a risky defensive call that leaves no deep safety and off-man coverage across the board. All other players blitz. While it can lead to a quick sack, if the passer gets the ball past the lone layer of defense, it can lead to a house call.
The comparison is apt. Since the kicking team’s players cannot move until the ball is touched or hits the ground, it will likely leave only one layer of defense against a return touchdown. There’s the possibility that kick return touchdowns explode, as well as deep returns into opponent territory.
The prevailing assumption is that teams will try to kick the ball short of the end zone to mitigate returns. If the kicker hits the ball through the end zone, the ball will go out to the 30 instead of the 25. That’s usually better field position than kicking teams are willing to concede.
In 2023, kickoffs that landed between the one-to-five-yard line had a median starting field position of 26.7. This would theoretically indicate that a team kicking the ball out of the end zone is ceding a median of 3.3 yards of field position for their defense.
That 26.7 median came when the kicking team was allowed to run downfield from the moment the ball was kicked. Is it not possible that this crucial change would cause a median difference of more than 3.3 yards?
Of all kickers in the NFL, Greg Zuerlein has been one of the biggest touchback masters over the last two seasons. He posted an 83.9% touchback rate in 2022 and 90.6% in 2023. Presumably, special teams coordinator Brant Boyer would want to change that in 2024.
However, what if the risk of a deep kick return still makes it worthwhile to kick the ball through the end zone? This applies particularly to a team with a strong defense. Maybe the Jets should just concede the 30-yard line start. After all, their opponents averaged a 29.8 starting field position in 2023 and 29.9 in 2022. Those defenses finished sixth and third in DVOA (an efficiency metric adjusted for opponent and game context).
The Jets were excellent in covering kickoff returns from 2021-23. They’ve allowed 17.8, 20.9, and 15.4 yards per kickoff return over the past three seasons, ranked first, fifth, and first. Still, that coverage came when their coverage team could run downfield immediately rather than waiting.
Additionally, the Jets’ best cover man, Justin Hardee, is no longer with the team. Irvin Charles is a very strong special teams cover player. However, the Jets’ punt coverage yielded an 87-yard return touchdown with Charles present and Hardee absent.
Then again, outside of that return touchdown, the Jets actually allowed fewer yards per punt return with just Charles than with Charles and Hardee. The difference was 8.8 yards per return vs. 9.8. It’s hard to extrapolate kick coverage from punt coverage, but perhaps Charles will be enough to mitigate the loss of Hardee.
My guess is that to begin the 2024 season, Boyer will have Zuerlein attempt to kick the ball between the one and five-yard line. He’ll be watching the results closely, though, both from the Jets and around the NFL. There’s no way to predict exactly what the results will be, but it’s possible to envision a scenario where Zuerlein goes back to kicking the ball through the end zone.
The Jets’ kick returner competition is wide-open and will certainly be important. Equally important, though, is the Jets’ coverage decisions — which could influence the outcome of games.
