The New York Jets’ slot receiver snaps are up for grabs
Acquiring Mike Williams helped solve the New York Jets’ No. 2 receiver crisis, as long as he stays healthy. What it didn’t do is provide a panacea for the depth of the team’s receiving problems from 2023.
Drafting Malachi Corley was supposed to be a part of the picture, but the Jets knew he’d need a lot of work on his route-running. Robert Saleh confirmed that at the time and has continued to reiterate it ever since. Jet X’s Robby Sabo has seen the same in training camp so far.
Williams will clearly be a starting outside receiver for the Jets. Over the last three seasons, he played 82.6% of his snaps out wide. From there, though, how individual players divide their snaps between playing wide, the slot, and (in the tight ends’ case) in-line is largely unknown.
Looking at the individual track records of Jets players and the team’s tendencies in 2023, let’s see if we can glean any insight about what rate of slot snaps each player will take. Of course, it’s critical to contextualize those numbers and not just look at the raw slot stats.
Jets’ 2023 slot percentages
In 2023, Jets pass-catchers took a combined 1,153 slot snaps on 738 quarterback dropbacks. This indicates the reality from the film that there are often multiple slot players. A play can have a slot player on both sides of the formation, as well as multiple slot players on one side. On average, that’s 1.56 slot snaps per dropback.
Here are the slot snap totals and percentages for every Jets pass-catcher to line up in 2023.
- Tyler Conklin: 309 (57.6%)
- Xavier Gipson: 223 (61.4%)
- Garrett Wilson: 222 (31.2%)
- Randall Cobb: 118 (74.7%)
- Allen Lazard: 107 (22.2%)
- Jeremy Ruckert: 52 (31.3%)
- Jason Brownlee: 39 (19.3%)
- C.J. Uzomah: 24 (17.9%)
- Malik Taylor: 20 (46.5%)
- Mecole Hardman: 15 (62.5%)
- Breece Hall: 10 (2.4%)
- Dalvin Cook: 7 (5.5%)
- Kenny Yeboah: 6 (13.3%)
- Israel Abanikanda: 1 (2.0%)
At a glance, there are a few notable contexts to keep in mind.
First of all, Tyler Conklin’s 57.6% slot rate was by far the highest of his career. He was at 29.5% in 2022 with the Jets and 10.3% in his final season in Minnesota. While having it happen in his first year under Nathaniel Hackett might suggest the trend will continue, it could also have been an outlier considering the Jets’ lack of receiving depth.
It is notable, though, that Jeremy Ruckert also had a fairly high slot rate, suggesting that Hackett may prefer to use his top two tight ends that way.
Xavier Gipson’s 61.4% slot rate was high, but not nearly as high as his 95.1% rate in college. With Williams taking the outside receiver spot that was sorely missing in 2023, Gipson may move back to an even higher slot rate in 2024. His 5-foot-9, 190-pound stature with 30⅛-inch arms is a pure slot receiver’s build.
Rodgers’ last few seasons
From 2019-22, Aaron Rodgers averaged 619 dropbacks per 17 games. That’s significantly lower than the Jets’ quarterbacks had in 2023, obviously due to constantly trailing. Even in 2022, though, when the Packers went 8-9, Rodgers had just 588 dropbacks over 17 games. The Jets will likely try to predicate their offense around the run game as much as possible, just as that Green Bay team did.
The Jets’ pass-catcher usage may be more similar to the Packers’ from 2019-21 when Davante Adams was with them. Adams played between 27.8% and 33.3% of his snaps in the slot over those three seasons. That closely mirrors Garrett Wilson’s 31.2% slot rate from 2023, although the Jets may prefer to use Wilson in the slot even more because he’s smaller and faster than Adams.
Notably, Allen Lazard played 40%, 53.2%, and 44.2% of his snaps in the slot from 2019-21. Even in 2022 when he was the Packers’ No. 1 receiver for a good chunk of the season, he played 37.7% of his snaps in the slot. That shrank to just 22.2% in his first season with the Jets. Perhaps Lazard will move to the slot most frequently with Williams taking over on the outside.
Furthermore, the Packers lined up their top tight end in the slot fairly regularly. Jimmy Graham was at 45.2% in 2019, while Robert Tonyan was at 37.8% in 2020 and 46.4% in 2021. This would suggest that Conklin’s usage was not merely a fluke, but it was more extreme than usual. Although Hackett was not the play-caller for the Packers at the time, he may have had more input on personnel usage.
The other interesting point is that running back Aaron Jones’ slot usage was at 4.7%, 8%, and 7.3% from 2019-21. Breece Hall saw just 2.4% of slot snaps in 2023. Hall commented that Jahmyr Gibbs’ usage was like a running back’s dream; Gibbs saw 9.4% of his snaps in the slot in 2023. Could Hall’s slot usage increase in 2024?
2024 questions
The first question is how many snaps each of these receivers will see, to begin with. In OTAs and early in training camp, Xavier Gipson lined up as the Jets’ starting slot receiver. However, that was with Mike Williams on the sidelines.
Would Gipson have continued to line up as the starter in 11 personnel with Williams there, or would Lazard or Wilson have taken his place with the other one lining up outside?
With Gipson’s recent injury keeping him out a couple of weeks, Malik Taylor has taken over in the slot. Taylor is a long shot to make the Jets’ roster. The main takeaway from that is just how raw Corley is. He’s nowhere near ready to receive significant slot snaps, let alone be a starter. That begs the question of how often Corley will be utilized altogether. He played over 90% of his snaps in the slot at Western Kentucky.
It’s worth noting that Lazard could be a starting No. 3 receiver in the Jets’ offense and still maintain his ideal supporting role. From 2019-21, he played in 73%, 73%, and 89% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in games he appeared in, but he saw just 3.9 targets per game or 66 targets over 17 games. That would have ranked fourth on the Jets in 2023, and that was without Williams.
Projected 2024 slot distribution
Using the Jets’ 1.56 slot snap rate in 2023 and Rodgers’ average of 619 dropbacks per season, let’s say the Jets have 967 slot snaps to go around in 2024. Here’s a projection of how those snaps could be split up.
- Garrett Wilson: 185 (31%)
- Conklin: 184 (40%)
- Gipson: 159 (58%)
- Lazard: 159 (35%)
- Corley: 134 (66%)
- Williams: 61 (15%)
- Ruckert: 52 (29%)
- Breece Hall: 22 (5.7%)
- Yeboah: 8 (11%)
- Braelon Allen: 3 (5%)
Of course, many factors will change these numbers. Rodgers may have more dropbacks, the Jets may have more or fewer slot snaps, and different receivers will be in and out of the lineup. I accounted for Mike Williams missing a few games.
I think the Jets will keep Wilson at roughly the same slot rate from 2023 while trying to give Lazard more slot snaps. With two slot-heavy receivers making the roster in Gipson and Corley, someone’s slot snaps will need to decrease. I see Conklin’s slot rate remaining fairly high but still diminishing significantly from 2023. I put Corley at 66% slot and Gipson 58%, but I could honestly see Corley getting an even higher slot rate, pushing down either Gipson’s or Conklin’s slot rate further.
As much as Hall might want to line up as a receiver, I see that happening more on the outside than in the slot. There’s just too much competition there.
Overall, the Jets likely won’t have one set starting slot receiver. That’s not all that unusual, either. Among 80 qualified receivers in 2023 (min. 50 targets), only four had a slot rate above 60%, only 11 above 50%, and only 16 above 40%. That means that at least half the teams in the NFL do not have a starting receiver playing in the slot more than 40% of the time.
Still, there will definitely be a lot of jostling for those slot snaps. It will be interesting to see how the Jets’ lineup shifts as camp progresses.
