Here we go again.
Around this time every year, NFL teams unveil their “first unofficial depth chart” of the season. These are typically shown on the “depth chart” page of the team’s official website.
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The New York Jets have just unveiled their first unofficial depth chart. It already has fans in a tizzy for multiple reasons, the most notable being Will McDonald‘s listing as a second-team edge rusher behind Micheal Clemons.
When does Douglas take any heat for the McDonald miss
— Bill (@Zamunda714) August 5, 2024
It baffles me that fans still overreact to these things every year. Recent history has proven that the first unofficial depth chart is unreliable for deducing a player’s status in his development or predicting his role in the upcoming season.
You can pick any season and find a perfect example of this. In fact, if you go back just one season, you can find a nearly identical situation. In 2023, the Jets’ first unofficial depth chart featured Jermaine Johnson as a second-team edge rusher, slotted behind Carl Lawson.
Like McDonald today, Johnson was seeking to forge a second-year breakout after being used in a situational role in his rookie year. If the first unofficial depth chart were to believed, Johnson had shown no progress as of August and was bound for another year as a backup. Johnson actually went on to lead the Jets’ edge rushers in snaps while nearly doubling his rookie-year snap percentage (34% to 66%). Maybe, just maybe, let’s give McDonald a chance to prove himself on the field before we bring out the pitchforks because of a few columns typed out by an intern.
That 2023 depth chart also featured Micheal Clemons as a second-team edge rusher, while Bryce Huff was buried on the third team. In reality, Huff went on to play 42% of the Jets’ defensive snaps while Clemons played 32%.
So, this year is not the first time that Clemons has been listed surprisingly high on the depth chart. That’s because these depth charts are sorted according to the team’s preferences for base personnel.
It is true that the Jets currently prefer Clemons over McDonald in base situations. Clemons is on the team to stop the run, while the Jets primarily drafted McDonald to be an explosive speed rusher in passing situations.
However, the Jets will have their pass-rush package on the field more frequently than their base package; hence Huff out-snapping Clemons in 2023 despite being listed lower on the depth chart. McDonald figures to do the same in 2024 as he presumably steps into Huff’s old role.
The 2022 season provided even more evidence as to why you should not read into the first unofficial depth chart.
Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios were over Garrett Wilson. Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman were over Breece Hall. Sauce Gardner shared a slot in the first-team column with Bryce Hall. C.J. Uzomah was over Tyler Conklin.
The Jets' "first unofficial depth chart" of 2022 featured
– Elijah Moore & Braxton Berrios over Garrett Wilson
– Michael Carter & Tevin Coleman over Breece Hall
– CJ Uzomah over Tyler Conklin
– Sauce Gardner sharing a spot with Bryce Hall
I will choose to not react to these pic.twitter.com/AFsyVozLfe
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) August 5, 2024
The Jets still have three joint practices, three preseason games, and plenty of training camp practices left. Evaluating an “unofficial depth chart” on August 5 is a waste of time.
Then, once the season arrives, things will change even faster than they do throughout August. Players will show development in-season, forcing alterations to the depth chart.
In 2022, Hall and Wilson did begin the season as backups, but they quickly forced their way into workhorse roles. Wilson was starting and leading the team in targets by Week 2. Hall was dominating the touches out of the backfield by Week 4.
Huff was a healthy scratch in the Jets’ first three games of 2022. He was a third-year former undrafted free agent who was not getting activated on gamedays – much lower stock than a second-year first-round pick who displayed great promise as a rookie. If you don’t believe in McDonald right now, then surely there was no reason to believe in Huff back then.
Yet, when the Jets gave Huff his shot in Week 4, he proved his worth, forcing the Jets to keep him active for the rest of the season. It just goes to show that you can’t judge a player by his placement on the roster totem pole – only by his accomplishments on the field. Sometimes, even the team itself doesn’t know what it has in a player.
In 2023, Huff continued to exemplify the impact that in-season development can have on the depth chart. Huff had an average snap percentage of 29% over the Jets’ first four games of 2023. As a response to his excellent production in those games, the Jets boosted his average snap percentage to 48% over the next 13 games.
Sometimes, a player demands more snaps through his performance, just like Wilson, Hall, and Huff did. But other times, a player needs time to work through some growing pains before he can hit his ceiling.
Most fans don’t remember it now, but Johnson started off very slowly in 2023. Through four games, Johnson had five pressures, one sack, one quarterback hit, and zero pass deflections. The Jets could have diminished his snap count, as I admittedly called for, but they did not stop believing in him. They continued giving him a high snap count.
Johnson rewarded their faith as he exploded from Week 5 onward. Over his last 13 games, Johnson had 51 pressures, six sacks, 15 quarterback hits, and seven pass deflections. So, if Johnson can go through four quiet regular season games and still find his footing, McDonald is far from the hot seat as we sit here in early August.
Remember, Johnson was in the same position one year ago – second-team edge rusher on the first unofficial depth chart. Johnson proceeded to enjoy an utterly dominant preseason run. After that, the Jets had seen enough growth from Johnson to entrust him with a major role by the time of the season opener. While it took a few games until he translated that growth into production, the improvement that Johnson showed in the preseason proved to be legitimate. At the very least, McDonald deserves the same opportunity to show his growth in the preseason before fans start worrying about his development.
If the first unofficial depth chart were gospel, none of these developmental arcs would have occurred. Depth charts are fluid and can change in the blink of an eye. Each day is another opportunity for the script to be flipped. I would argue that every ounce of energy poured into an August 5 depth chart is an ounce of energy wasted.
Let’s allow these guys to prove themselves. I wouldn’t read into a depth chart that was crafted without even a single joint practice in the books, let alone a preseason game.
