NY Jets have all the leverage in Haason Reddick situation

Haason Reddick has asked the New York Jets to trade him before he even participated in a practice with the team. Naturally, this has brought the “LOL Jets” narratives back out into the limelight. The Super Bowl hopes are off, Joe Douglas is a moron, and it’s time to start thinking about a top-10 pick next year.

There have been many situations in recent years where it made sense to clown the Jets. But this is not one of them.

The Jets have all the leverage in this game of hardball with Reddick. This situation is only transpiring because of one side’s unrealistic demands, puzzling plan, and bad-faith negotiation tactics.

While it is fair to criticize the Jets for making a major trade to acquire a player who they had not come to a firm agreement with, multiple reports throughout the past few months have indicated that Reddick’s representative informed the Jets that he would play under his current contract. That is why they went through with the deal. For a reason that remains unbeknownst to the public, Reddick and his side reneged on this after the trade was made.

And yes, you can knock the Jets for making this trade based on an unofficial verbal agreement. However, this type of situation – trading for a player who wants a new contract without having an agreement at the time of the trade – happens all the time in the NFL. Teams are supposed to be able to trust the good faith of the player and his agent, and things usually work out.

For instance, the Seahawks traded for Jets safety Jamal Adams in 2020 because he wanted a new contract, but the Seahawks wanted Adams to play out the 2020 season before paying him. So he did, and he had a monster season in a contract year. Seattle rewarded him with a massive contract extension after the season. That was a much different situation regarding the player’s age and contract situation, but the point is that New York’s decision to trade for a contract-hungry player without agreeing on a deal pre-trade is not unusual.

It has become obvious that Reddick’s demands are preposterous. Think back to when he was traded. The whole league knew he was available, and we know that New York was granted permission to speak with Reddick prior to completing the trade, so every team in the league had a chance to speak with him. This means Reddick was essentially a free agent. It is likely that most teams in the league inquired to check on his trade cost and contract demands.

Reddick is a great player that any team would love to have in a vacuum. So, if there was a team out there that was willing to give him the contract he is asking for, he would be on that team right now. Nobody took the bait. Instead, he ended up on a Jets team that is not positioned to sign him long-term and apparently only wants him on a one-year trial basis.

That just goes to show how unrealistic Reddick’s demands are. Out of 31 teams, the Jets were near the bottom of the list in terms of their financial capability to present Reddick with the deal he is seemingly asking for. Yet, that is where he ended up. If his demands were even slightly realistic, then a talent-needy team ripe with long-term cap flexibility – such as the Cardinals, Patriots, or Chargers – would have jumped on the opportunity to add him.

It has been speculated in various reports that Reddick is seeking $25-28 million per year. He is likely hoping to surpass the $24.5 million that Danielle Hunter, another sack artist entering his age-30 season, earned earlier this year.

Frankly, this is an absurd asking price for Reddick.

Based on current salaries, a $25 million APY would rank fifth-highest among edge rushers. That would tie Myles Garrett, placing him one spot behind T.J. Watt and one ahead of Hunter.

If you analyze players solely on sack totals, then sure, Reddick could justify this salary. Reddick has four consecutive double-digit sack seasons and has the fourth-most sacks in total (50.5) since 2020. This narrative is being peddled by casual analysts who only use the Statmuse search bar to evaluate players.

But that’s not how football works. There is more that goes into determining an edge rusher’s value than sacks. And when you look at the whole picture with Reddick, it becomes clear that, while he is a great player, he is not quite as dominant as his sack numbers suggest.

Over the four-year span in which his 50.5 sacks rank fourth in the league (2020-23), Reddick created pressure on 12.7% of his pass-rush snaps, per Pro Football Focus. For perspective, that rate would have ranked 38th out of 95 qualified edge rushers in the 2023 season. The league average was 11.6%. In 2023, Reddick was actually below his usual average, posting a 12.0% pressure rate that ranked 45th out of 95 qualifiers.

What this tells us is that, while Reddick is a world-class finisher, he does not wreck plays nearly as consistently as the players he thinks he should be paid similarly to.

Let’s compare Reddick’s 2023 pressure rate and pressure total to the highest-paid edge rushers in the league (based on APY):

• 1. Nick Bosa ($34M): 16.8% (10th) / 95 total pressures (3rd)
• 2. Josh Hines-Allen ($28.3M): 17.5% (4th) / 90 total pressures (5th)
• 3. Brian Burns ($28.2M): 10.6% (60th) / 40 total pressures (52nd)
• 4. T.J. Watt ($28M): 15.6% (17th) / 86 total pressures (7th)
• 5. Myles Garrett ($25M): 17.2% (6th) / 86 total pressures (6th)
• X. Haason Reddick ($25M): 12.0% (45th) / 67 total pressures (15th)
• 6. Danielle Hunter ($24.5M): 13.0% (35th) / 80 total pressures (9th)
• 6. Montez Sweat ($24.5M): 12.4% (41st) / 64 total pressures (18th)
• 8. Rashan Gary ($24M): 15.6% (16th) / 60 total pressures (20th)
• 9. Maxx Crosby ($23.5M): 14.3% (25th) / 94 total pressures (4th)
• 10. Bradley Chubb ($22M): 14.7% (21st) / 70 total pressures (12th)

Reddick had a lower pressure rate than nine of the 10 highest-paid edge rushers, with the only exception being Brian Burns, who cannot really be compared to Reddick from a contract standpoint since he is about five years younger.

Speaking of which, it should be noted that Reddick is older than all 10 of these players. Hunter and Watt are only a few weeks behind him, but they are better players.

Reddick’s age is a major factor in this whole discussion. If he were 25-27 years old, then the Jets would be in the wrong right now. But at 30 years old (in September), Reddick is a risky player to invest in long-term.

This is especially true when you consider his style of play. Reddick is a speed rusher who relies on his athletic sack-finishing skills to be effective. He is not someone who wins primarily with finesse and technique. Those types of rushers often age well, but speed rushers are riskier. It’s fair to wonder how much longer Reddick will be an elite athlete who can finish sacks at an absurd rate, and when that elite athleticism wears off, can he still be a player who is worth superstar money?

Reddick already showed signs of decline in 2023. After posting 16 sacks, five forced fumbles, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 2022, Reddick dropped to 11 sacks, zero forced fumbles, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 2022. The sack and forced fumble dips occurred despite Reddick playing 109 more pass-rush snaps in 2023 than he did in 2022.

If Reddick takes another similarly-sized drop in 2024, he will be an average starter at best. It is fair to assume that Reddick’s 2022-23 drop-off is a major reason why teams are afraid to pay him now and want to see him play in 2024 before they invest in him.

The last part of the equation to determine Reddick’s value is his run defense. He is only average in this area, whereas many of the highest-paid edge rushers complement their elite pass-rushing with similarly great run defense.

In 2023, Reddick ranked 42nd out of 86 qualified edge rushers with a 64.0 run defense grade at Pro Football Focus. This is right on par with his usual standard; his yearly average over the past four seasons is 62.8.

Compare that to the 2023 PFF run defense grades of the current top-10 highest-paid edge rushers:

• 1. Nick Bosa ($34M): 81.9 (7th)
• 2. Josh Hines-Allen ($28.3M): 73.2 (20th)
• 3. Brian Burns ($28.2M): 62.7 (45th)
• 4. T.J. Watt ($28M): 80.7 (9th)
• 5. Myles Garrett ($25M): 82.9 (6th)
• X. Haason Reddick ($25M): 64.0 (42nd)
• 6. Danielle Hunter ($24.5M): 51.7 (72nd)
• 6. Montez Sweat ($24.5M): 72.9 (22nd)
• 8. Rashan Gary ($24M): 76.4 (16th)
• 9. Maxx Crosby ($23.5M): 92.7 (1st)
• 10. Bradley Chubb ($22M): 71.1 (25th)

Only Burns and Hunter were lower than Reddick, and each of the other eight players rated significantly higher.

Burns, as we mentioned, is too young to be used as a contract comparison for Reddick. Hunter’s season was an outlier; his average grade over the past four seasons was 70.4, including 73.7 in 2022, so he is likely viewed by the league as a much better run defender than Reddick.

At this point, it should be obvious why the Jets are balking at Reddick’s demands. If $25 million is what his camp is seeking, they are grossly overestimating his true value. Only sack totals would put Reddick in that range. But when you consider that he…

• Is older than each of the top 10 highest-paid edge rushers
• Had a worse pressure rate in 2023 than 9/10
• Is a worse run defender than 9/10
• Declined significantly in 2023
• Has the type of skill set that does not lend itself well to aging

… it makes total sense what the Jets are doing.

Reddick is probably valued as a high-teens player ($17-19M per year) by the Jets and teams around the league. But Reddick can prove he’s worth more than that by… playing football.

Therein lies the reason why all the leverage rests in New York’s hands. By now, we have deduced that there is likely a massive gap between the number Reddick thinks he’s worth and the number that New York (and the entire NFL) thinks he’s worth. Reddick can only close that gap by going out there in 2024 and lighting the world on fire. If he sits on his couch, not only is he losing money in the present via fines, but he’s losing future money by doing nothing to prove why he’s worth what he thinks he is.

Not to mention, Reddick has zero leverage to threaten to sit out the whole year. If he does, his 2024 contract will simply roll into 2025. He will remain a Jet on the same contract, placing himself in the same position he is in right now, only having a worse market value because he’s one year older, rusty coming off a lost season (hello, Le’Veon Bell), and has the “distraction” label attached to his name.

Sitting out the entire 2024 season is a doomsday scenario for Reddick and his agent. Joe Douglas knows they will not allow things to go that far. Given that sitting out the season is a non-option for Reddick, it is a near guarantee that he will show up at some point, and if he wants to maximize his market value in 2025, he’s best off playing as many games as possible. This is why, as ugly as things look right now, Reddick’s best and likeliest move is to show up for Week 1.

For all of these reasons, Reddick’s trade request is baffling and does not increase the Jets’ desperation at all. Nobody wanted him at his asking price four months ago. Why would they want him now in the midst of this display? Let alone next year if he sits out in 2024? Reddick’s camp might be upset with the Jets right now, but the rest of the league feels the same way about him and will not change their stance until he proves himself on the field.

Douglas and the Jets know that Reddick’s options are:

• Keep sitting on the couch and paying fines while diminishing his future market value both to the Jets and other teams
• Show up and play football

So… why budge?

The argument to budge is that the Jets need Reddick. And, yes, to an extent, they do.

After losing the elite pass-rushing impact of Bryce Huff, which was a big part of their defensive success over the past two seasons, the Jets needed a replacement, and they got it in Reddick. While Reddick is a different type of player than Huff (Reddick is an elite big-play machine while Huff makes fewer big plays but is far more consistent) and will not be around long-term, he is a perfect fit for the Jets’ system and is poised for a big year if he plays.

The Jets’ defensive ceiling will be lowered without Reddick. There is no debating that. As much talent as their defense has, and as much as they like the young edge rushers they have in place, they will miss him when he is not out there.

With that being said, the Jets’ desperation for Reddick is nowhere close to Reddick’s desperation for the Jets. New York can survive without Reddick.

The Jets have two first-round edge rushers who they drafted over the past three drafts. One of them (Jermaine Johnson) made the Pro Bowl last year and graded as the 16th-best edge rusher at PFF, proving himself as a dynamic two-way force. The other (Will McDonald) was uber-efficient in a limited role as a rookie and projects as a great fit for the role Huff played last season.

Most importantly, if Reddick decides to hold out into the season, he will be holding out through a part of the schedule where the Jets probably won’t miss him. Save for the season opener in San Francisco, the Jets’ next four games are against the Titans, Patriots, Broncos, and Vikings. New York is currently favored in all four of these games by an average of 5.6 points. The Jets could sweep this stretch even without Reddick. By Week 5, Reddick could make himself look silly by watching the Jets go 4-1 in his absence.

Again, do not take this as me diminishing Reddick’s talent and importance to the Jets. They are, without question, a better team with him on the field. While Johnson and McDonald are talented, they both have a lot to prove in their respective roles. Johnson was good last year with Huff and John Franklin-Myers around him, but can the Jets’ defense play to its full potential with Johnson as its best edge rusher? McDonald made the most of his measly 99 pass-rush snaps last year, but is he ready to step up and be a starter opposite Johnson?

Having Reddick on the field would give the Jets a much more sensible depth chart that gets the most out of everybody. Johnson would not be held to the high standards of being the Jets’ top edge rusher. McDonald could step into Huff’s situational pass-rushing role without having to bear the pressure of a starting role until he’s improved his run defense and overall strength.

So, yes, Reddick is valuable to the Jets, and they should be doing what they can to get him on the field. But Reddick needs to play football in 2024 far more than the Jets need him – or any other team, for that matter, if his asking price does not change. If Reddick waits out the Jets, the Jets are never going to budge, and no other NFL team is going to, either. Reddick will not gain anything until he demonstrates his value on the field.

A compromise makes sense – but a fair one, at that. The Jets have the leverage here, so nothing will happen until Reddick gives in and comes closer to the Jets’ demands. Let’s break down what the Jets are probably willing to offer.

It seems obvious the Jets do not want to extend Reddick long-term – at least not until after he has a strong season, but probably not at that point, either, given the long-term concerns with Reddick’s sustainability and the vast number of young core players the Jets would prefer to extend over Reddick.

Not to mention, being in a win-now year, the Jets would probably rather have a motivated Reddick in a contract year than a paid and satisfied one, especially now that he has shown his true colors as a mercenary. On top of that, if Reddick plays well and the Jets let him walk next year, they can recoup a third-round compensatory pick in 2026 that makes up for the third-round pick they dealt to acquire him.

So, a long-term extension does not seem like it is on the table here. The Jets don’t seem to view him as part of their long-term plans, and it’s doubtful Reddick would want to be with the Jets long-term at this point, anyway. This means the two sides need to find a way to make Reddick happy enough to take the field in 2024 without extending him long-term.

And it seems like the Jets have been very eager to do this all along. It has been reported that the Jets are willing to adjust Reddick’s current deal by increasing the guaranteed money and adding incentives. This is an extremely fair offer for both sides.

It is understandable that Reddick does not want to show up to camp on his non-guaranteed $14.5 million salary. If he gets injured tomorrow, he is screwed. You understand his perspective in this regard, and it seems the Jets understand it, too.

On top of that, it is also understandable that Reddick views his $14.5 million salary as slightly insulting. For all of the faults that we mentioned, $14.5 million still seems a bit low for a player with his accomplishments. That is why it makes sense for the Jets to add incentives and give him a chance to maximize his payout in 2024. Play well, and not only will you increase your value on the open market next year, but you will get what you deserve in the short term, too.

Reddick’s only option is to take the Jets’ offer of increased 2024 guarantees and incentives, show up, have a giant year, and go sign a big deal somewhere else in 2025. The Jets know it. And that is why they are wise to wait him out.