Haason Reddick’s holdout from the New York Jets has passed from the realm of “just business” and into the realm of the outrageous.
It is one thing to want more money, but a whole different ballgame to lose even more money in the process. The math on Reddick’s holdout is starting to add up to just that.
Here is the breakdown of the ramifications of the holdout.
It's been a costly summer holdout for "#Jets" LB Haason Reddick.
Fines/Forfeitures ($5.07M)
Minicamp: $101,716
Training Camp: $2,050,000
Preseason: $2,375,000
Workout Bonus: $250,000
Discretionary Fine: $300,000He'll forfeit an additional $791,666 per regular season week…
— Spotrac (@spotrac) September 5, 2024
Reddick’s base salary this season is $14.25 million. He has already been fined $4.82 million. He also lost out on his $250,000 workout bonus. Now he forfeited his Week 1 game check of $791,666, making the losses $5.86 million and counting. Even if he reports the day after the Jets-49ers game, his maximum earnings for 2024 will be $8.39 million.
Suppose he returns to play out the season and hits free agency next year. Say he even gets the $25 million per year he sought in a two-year deal akin to Danielle Hunter’s. That still means his two-year earnings would be $33.6 million — or $16.8 million per year, which is not too much more than what his base salary was supposed to be this year.
But then, let’s say Reddick carries his holdout further. He doesn’t report until Week 13, the latest he can report and still accrue a season. Otherwise, his contract will toll and he will remain under contract with the Jets rather than hitting the free-agent market.
At that point, missing 11 games (the Jets’ bye week is in Week 12), he would have forfeited $8.7 million in addition to the $4.82 million in fines from before the season. That means he would make only $730,000 for the remaining six games. Again, he then hits free agency and gets $50 million over two years. That means his earnings from 2024-25 would be $25.7 million, or $12.85 million per year — meaning he made less money over two years than he would have by playing in 2024.
Let’s say he sits out the whole year and “dies on his sword,” as Dianna Russini of The Athletic said. He will then have forfeited his entire salary plus $4.82 million in fines, a total of $19.07 million. Even if he gets that $50 million deal over two years, his total earnings from 2024-25 would be just $20.2 million — or $10.1 million per year. Talk about being underpaid.
To recap, suppose Reddick does get that $25 million-per-year deal in the offseason, whether in free agency or via a sign-and-trade. These would be his totals over the two years from 2024-25 based on his reporting date.
- No holdout: $39.5 million ($19.75 million per year)
- Reported Week 1: $34.4 million ($17.2 million)
- Reports Week 2: $33.6 million ($16.8 million)
- Reports Week 8: $28.9 million ($14.45 million)
- Reports Week 13: $25.7 million ($12.85 million)
- Does not report: $20.2 million ($10.1 million)
Additionally, Joe Douglas likely would have added some incentives or even a pay raise had Reddick reported. That seems like a pipe dream now. But Reddick clearly still hopes that somehow, some way, Douglas will cave to their demands and make the holdout worthwhile.
If Reddick does not report by Week 8, he will have lost more money than he can hope to make back. As it is, his two-year average is decreasing by the week. He is rapidly ensuring that he will be underpaid not only in 2024 but in total value from 2024-25.
This assumes that Reddick can get the $25 million per year he seeks on the open market. Reports that teams hung up on the Eagles when they heard how much Reddick demanded indicate otherwise.
Furthermore, teams may shy away from giving the bag to a 31-year-old edge rusher who sat out for a year. In particular, the results of Le’Veon Bell’s and Deshaun Watson’s year-long hiatuses could cause even more wariness. Bell was 27 at the time of his holdout, and Watson was 26. What would sitting out a year do to a 31-year-old?
Conceivably, Reddick could report in Week 2, receive a contract that pays him only $20 million next year, and make a two-year salary of $28.6 million. That’s $14.3 million per year, which is almost exactly what he’s fighting vehemently against right now.
Decision-making
Reddick can come out ahead in this situation only if Douglas caves to his full demands. He has painted himself into a corner. The idea of “dying on his sword” to stand on principle seemingly holds no merit when the holdout is about money and Reddick is rapidly losing it. But the reason he is doing so is apparent in the study of human behavior and decision-making.
In game theory, there is a concept called the ultimatum game between two players. The proposer receives $10 and is told to offer part of it to the responder. If the responder accepts the offer, both players receive the allotted money; if the responder rejects it, neither player receives anything.
If both players play logically and in perfect self-interest, the proposer would offer a $9/$1 split and the responder would accept it. Ultimately, the responder comes out ahead if they make any money at all. However, studies show over and over in a wide variety of settings that proposers usually offer a $6/$4 split, and responders usually reject lower offers.
There is extensive research and discussion about why this is. According to the Foundation for Teaching Economics, a study by Bolton et al. (1991),
“concluded that responders reject splits they deem to be unfair because their dislike for a low offer is stronger than the value they place on the money at stake (emphasis added). Proposers who offer highly unequal splits are seen as deserving punishment and responders punish them by rejecting their offers. Because proposers anticipate that responders might react this way, they make more generous offers.”
In many ways, this study reflects exactly what has happened with Reddick. Douglas made him an offer that he likely found insulting. He is now holding out as punishment because his dislike of that offer is stronger than his desire for the money.
Therefore, as absurd as Reddick’s holdout is from a financial perspective, it is perfectly understandable based on studies of human nature. That means Reddick’s holdout could truly continue all season.
