How many games will it take for New York Jets narratives to solidify?
After the Jets laid an egg against the 49ers, it was easy to run away with panicked overreactions. But for a true pattern to emerge, those issues would likely manifest in Week 2, as well.
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Taking a look at last week’s overreaction meter, which of the Jets’ worrisome Week 1 patterns continued against the Titans?
Pass rush
In Week 1, the Haason Reddick clamor was up to 100. The Jets mustered no true sacks (they were credited with two that did not result from the pass rush) and just two knockdowns against Brock Purdy. This was despite a relatively long average time to throw of 2.74 seconds.
Against the Titans, those concerns became even more acute, albeit due to injury rather than performance. Jermaine Johnson’s torn Achilles leaves Will McDonald and Micheal Clemons as the Jets’ starting edge defenders. Things were already thin enough without Johnson, but now the Jets have no proven pass rushers on the edge.
However, in the game itself, the Jets did make Will Levis far more uncomfortable than they did Purdy. According to Pro Football Focus, Levis was pressured on 48.6% of his dropbacks, the third-worst rate among starters in Week 2 (not including Monday Night Football). Johnson, McDonald, and Clemons were all credited with four pressures, and Javon Kinlaw and Solomon Thomas had three apiece.
Still, the Jets should not be too sanguine about their pass rush, especially with Johnson out. Levis’ 3.03 average time to throw was the eighth-longest among Week 2 passers. Levis has also been one of the most pressured quarterbacks since he entered the league, and he was one of the most pressured passers in college football during his final season. Therefore, pressuring Levis is not necessarily a reason to stand up and cheer.
Furthermore, the Jets picked on two players — right guard Dillon Radunz and right tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere. The pair combined to allow 13 of the 17 pressures Levis faced. Radunz had a 7.9% pressure rate in 2023 (the guard average was 5.2%), and Petit-Frere lost his starting job last season after posting a 6.9% rate in 2022 (the tackle average was 5.5% that season).
The Jets took advantage of a subpar pair of linemen, unlike in Week 1. They still have yet to show they can win against quality offensive linemen. They have another soft matchup in Week 3 — the Patriots’ right guard/right tackle tandem has been almost as bad as the Titans’ so far — but it’s something to keep a close eye on.
Where is Q?
Quinnen Williams’ lack of pass-rush production is also a concern. Williams has just four pressures on 57 snaps (7% pressure rate) after posting a 15.1% pressure rate last season. He has a 7.4% pass rush win rate, ranking 42nd out of 82 qualified interior defensive linemen (min. 25 pass rush snaps). With the rapidly deteriorating cast surrounding Williams, the Jets desperately need production from their best defensive lineman.
Part of this may well be due to the Jets’ new usage of Williams. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, in 2023, Williams lined up on the edge on just 34 of his 742 snaps (4.6%). In 2024, he’s already lined up there on 12 of his 92 snaps (13%). Additionally, in 2023, per PFF, Williams lined up at zero or one technique on 6.6% of his snaps. This year, he’s at 16.5% so far.
The Jets are miscasting Williams by playing him at nose tackle or on the edge on 29.5% of his snaps. He is a classic three-technique, using his power to take on double-teams in the middle. He’s not a two-gapper, and he’s not big enough to be a true nose. Dexter Lawrence, the best nose tackle in the NFL, is 342 pounds. Williams is 303. Williams also does not have the bend to win outside, minimizing the pass rush tools he can use on the edge.
Run defense
This one is difficult to parse out. The Titans rushed for 130 yards on 4.6 yards per carry a week after the 49ers put up 180 on 4.7. However, Will Levis’ four rushes for 38 yards (9.5 YPC) inflate that number; the other ball carriers averaged 3.8 yards per carry.
That’s not how rushing statistics work, but it is somewhat encouraging to see the Jets’ run defense hold up better against Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears after the pair averaged 5.2 yards per carry in Week 1.
Still, even excluding Levis’ scrambles, the Titans were seemingly more successful on the ground than the raw statistics would indicate. Their 41.7% success rate and -0.08 EPA per play on the ground each ranked 11th. Their 21.7% rush over expected rate* was the eighth-worst among teams in Week 2.
* Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE) measures how many rush yards the running back gained above what was expected at the handoff point. Rushes Over Expected (ROE) rate measures the percentage of a ball carrier’s runs with a positive RYOE value.
While RYOE can be an unstable metric, prone to some strange conclusions, this would tend to indicate that the Titans did not maximize their opportunities based on the blocking. Negative RYOE is usually attributed to the back rather than good defensive play.
Tackling in the run game also continues to be an issue. After missing 10 tackles on 38 carries in Week 1 (0.26 per carry), the Jets missed another 7 tackles on 28 carries in Week 2 (0.25). The Titans did not take advantage of those misses the way the 49ers did, but the inability to tackle will haunt the Jets if they cannot clean it up.
The matchup with the Patriots in Week 3 will test the Jets’ run defense. New England’s 75 rush attempts are the third-most in the NFL. Their 4.7 yards per carry is tied for 12th, and their 1.1 RYOE per carry ranks seventh.
In the Jets’ Week 3 loss to the Patriots last season, they held Rhamondre Stevenson to just 3.1 YPC on 19 carries — but Ezekiel Elliott gashed them with 16 carries for 80 yards (5.0 YPC). All told, New England had 40 rush attempts in the game and averaged 3.9 YPC. Perhaps the Jets would live with that outcome, but they cannot afford another San Francisco showing.
Breece Hall + run-blocking
Breece Hall’s 26-yard touchdown reception from Aaron Rodgers was a thing of beauty. According to Rodgers, Hall asked for the go ball against a linebacker, and Rodgers obliged. The completion probability of the pass was 28% according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Overall, Hall caught 7 of 8 targets for 52 yards and that touchdown. He shrugged off the yips from Week 1, not dropping a ball or fumbling.
In the run game, Hall and the Jets as a whole did not look as good. Hall’s final average of 4.4 yards per carry was predicated on one 30-yard scamper. On his remaining carries, he averaged just 2.6 YPC. It was the same story for Braelon Allen: he outran the defender to the edge on his 20-yard touchdown, but his remaining six carries went for 13 yards (1.9 YPC).
The underlying metrics from Hall’s performance are mixed. His 35.7% success rate remained low (18th), as did his -0.26 EPA per carry (22nd). However, his 1.2 RYOE per carry tied for ninth, and his 57.1% ROE rate ranked fourth. His expected yards per carry (xYPC) was just 3.2 (26th). The RYOE and ROE indicate Hall consistently outperformed his blocking, which places the onus on the offensive line.
On every Hall run, there seemed to be just one blocker who whiffed on their assignment and caused the play to fail.
On this play, there could have been a massive cutback lane had John Simpson not whiffed on his block. Had Simpson been able to contain No. 91, Joe Tippmann could have sealed off No. 97. Look at the side view; it may well have set up a one-on-one between Hall and the safety in the open field, especially once No. 21 ran into the man Tyron Smith was blocking.
Here, if Tyler Conklin hadn’t badly whiffed on his initial block, Hall might have had a one-on-one with the safety with plenty of space. He would have taken a direct angle outside rather than cutting out wide to avoid the penetrator. Perhaps the safety would have tackled Hall for a short gain, but there was plenty of potential here on a first-and-10 play. Instead, the Jets lost six yards and set up a second-and-16.
Some of the struggles came from bad scheming combined with bad blocking. For example, on this third-and-one play, CBS color commentator Charles Davis said, “If you’re going to run it inside, you’re running into about 700 pounds of beef in terms of [T’Vondre] Sweat, [No.] 93, and [Jeffery] Simmons, [No.] 98.”
Guess what the Jets did?
Now, the play could have still worked if Simmons hadn’t used a swim move to get straight past Alijah Vera-Tucker. Even though Ernest Jones (No. 53) filled the hole quickly, Vera-Tucker might have been able to pick him up instead of falling. Most NFL teams run the ball on third-and-one, even when the defense knows it’s coming.
But in this case, when the Jets already weren’t running the ball well, coming out in shotgun and running the ball into the teeth of a defense with two stout run-stuffers in the middle is suspect at best.
The Jets’ offensive linemen have withstood the pass-blocking test thus far. Run-blocking remains an issue for the whole unit.
The Patriots have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry, the third-lowest in the NFL. It doesn’t get any easier for this unit in Week 3, but the Jets will need them to be more consistent.
Predictably, the answer to all three Jets overreactions is “wait and see.” The Jets have the right to feel somewhat better about all three after Week 2, but they’ll need to beat teams with inferior talent more convincingly to quell the concerns.
