The New York Jets are coming off arguably their most unforgivable loss in years. As 7.5-point favorites, they fell at home to a rookie quarterback who entered the game with zero career touchdown passes.
The defeat is almost entirely the fault of an offense that failed to score any touchdowns on 13 offensive possessions. New York’s defense came to play, allowing 10 points and 60 passing yards, but the offense failed to clear the extremely low bar set for them by the defense. It was an all too familiar sighting for Jets fans – one that was supposed to be eliminated with the addition of Aaron Rodgers.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
New York’s offense is a far cry from what fans expected to see. Through four games, the Jets rank 22nd in total yards per game, 22nd in net yards per pass attempt, and 27th in yards per rush attempt.
Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett cannot just sit on his hands and wait for things to get better. Changes need to happen if New York is going to spark its underwhelming offense, and they need to happen now.
Here are three changes the Jets should consider entering a Week 5 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings’ fourth-ranked scoring defense.
Give some of Jeremy Ruckert’s snaps to Brenden Bates
The Jets’ run-blocking has been abysmal this year.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Jets have produced 3.7 expected yards per carry (xYPC) on running back carries this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. This metric uses GPS tracking to estimate how many yards the runner is “expected” to gain based on the blocking. New York’s low ranking shows that the running backs are not being presented with favorable running lanes.
One of the biggest reasons for the Jets’ lack of running room has been the blocking of the tight ends. Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert have been constantly bullied on the edge.
Among the 52 tight ends with at least 50 run-blocking snaps this season, Ruckert ranks 44th in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grade (46.3) while Conklin ranks 46th (45.3). This lines up with the film. Week after week, Conklin and Ruckert can be seen blowing blocks.
Conklin is far and away the Jets’ best pass catcher at the tight end position, so they’ll just have to put up with his blocking and hope it gets better. But Ruckert is mostly a non-factor in the passing game. His role is built around blocking, and yet he has been a poor blocker this year.
The Jets do not have to sit around and wait for Ruckert to improve. They have a potential solution in place: TE3 Brenden Bates.
Bates is an undrafted rookie out of Kentucky who signed with the Chicago Bears. He was waived by Chicago as part of final roster cutdowns, but thanks to a promising preseason, he was claimed by the Jets and made New York’s 53-man roster. Bates has played in three games for the Jets and logged 16 offensive snaps (6.3%).
Bates has only played 11 run-blocking snaps this season, but he has looked solid when on the field. His PFF run-blocking grade of 66.6 ranks 15th among the 92 tight ends with at least 10 run-blocking snaps.
#Jets should think about giving more snaps to Brenden Bates to try & boost their run blocking. Top 2 TEs are struggling in the run game but Bates has shown good signs in his limited time pic.twitter.com/wPgCmEwLCG
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) October 1, 2024
This is a continuation of Bates’ success in the preseason, when his 74.9 run-blocking grade ranked sixth-best among 92 tight ends (min. 20 run-blocking snaps).
Brenden Bates #Jets pic.twitter.com/LY6H5V10Wo
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) August 28, 2024
There is no guarantee that Bates’ flashes will translate to a larger role. However, it is worth the shot, as things cannot get much worse. Ruckert has had three years to establish himself as a worthy TE2, and he still does not look the part. It is time for the Jets to try something new.
An immediate benching of Ruckert is excessive, but Hackett should start giving some of Ruckert’s snaps to Bates and see what happens. Ruckert has played 37% of the Jets’ offensive snaps this year compared to Bates’ 6%. In Week 4, perhaps it would be worthwhile to cut Ruckert down to around 25% and push Bates up to around 20%. Give it a shot and see if the rookie can bring a spark.
More Malachi Corley, less Xavier Gipson
Robert Saleh says Malachi Corley “just needs to continue to work” and that “[t]here’s a group of receivers ahead of him that are operating a little bit better than he is right now.”
It seems clear that Corley is not impressing the coaches in practice. Otherwise, the Jets would surely be using a third-round pick who they traded up to get (and apparently wanted to take in the second round).
It is understandable that New York is not using Corley based on practice-field issues that are invisible to outsiders. The coaches’ judgment based on practice-field performance should be respected. We, as fans and media, cannot evaluate these reps, yet they are an essential part of teams’ decision-making.
However, Corley’s absence is becoming increasingly difficult to justify because of the alternative being used over him.
I have a hard time seeing what Xavier Gipson is not doing on the field that Corley cannot. Whatever subtle, fundamental, or intangible aspects of the position that Corley might be struggling with in practice, Gipson is not providing either. In Sunday’s game against the Broncos, Gipson was clearly not on the same page with Rodgers on multiple routes. Rodgers was visibly angry at Gipson after one incompletion.
This reaction from Rodgers is what the Jets have been missing. Finally some accountability & passion in the room. Enough believing things will work themselves out. Hold people accountable and make change. With Rodgers' dedication fans can finally trust that progress might happen pic.twitter.com/rjGbN45Pvh
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 30, 2024
On the year, Gipson has caught only 3-of-6 targets for 22 yards and one first down.
Corley can’t replicate that production?
The Jets even threw a give-up third-and-14 screen to Gipson against Denver, which only netted six yards. It is puzzling to suggest that Corley is not capable of at least getting the ball on plays as simple as this. It is the perfect type of play to maximize Corley’s skill set without putting too much on his plate.
Even outside of the screen, the rest of Gipson’s role against Denver was nothing that should be too complex for Corley to handle. Gipson was targeted on two straight-line go routes along the sideline. Both fell incomplete, which is not surprising given Gipson’s lack of a catch radius or acrobatic catch skills.
Corley has a larger frame than Gipson and is more acrobatic, making him a more appealing target for Rodgers on these throws. Considering Gipson’s results on these routes, you’re telling me Corley cannot go out there and run a straight-line go route and be more effective? It is not as if Gipson is out there dissecting defenses with complex option routes that require precise timing and genius football IQ.
Similar to the Ruckert-Bates situation, I am not suggesting the Jets should suddenly bench Gipson and give all of his plays to Corley. Rather, they should simply begin to shift some of Gipson’s reps to Corley and see what happens. It is a low-risk, high-reward proposition. If the experiment fails, it could hardly make the team much worse, as there is not much room beneath the floor that Gipson has set this year. If it works, there is substantial room for improvement.
Experiment with a more balanced split between Breece Hall and Braelon Allen
Breece Hall was supposed to be the Jets’ LaDainian Tomlinson or Christian McCaffrey. He was going to dominate the touches in both phases on his way to a No. 1 fantasy football finish.
It might be time to scrap that plan for the sake of the team.
Through four weeks, not only has Hall failed to establish himself as the No. 1 running back in the NFL, but he has not even been the best running back on his team. Braelon Allen (4.8 yards per rush attempt) has outperformed Hall (3.1 yards per rush attempt) so far. It is that simple.
As I broke down in an earlier article, the difference in efficiency is partially due to Allen being fortunate enough to receive better blocking than Hall. However, even when you account for that, Allen has been a flat-out better playmaker than Hall.
Allen has a 91.1 rushing grade at Pro Football Focus, the best in the NFL among running backs with at least 20 rushing attempts. Hall’s rushing grade is a mediocre 65.3, ranked 38th out of 53 qualifiers.
In addition, Allen is averaging 3.59 yards after contact per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus, which ranks eighth-best at the position. Hall is only producing 2.96 yards after contact per attempt, ranked 27th.
Allen is also nearly 50% more likely to force a missed tackle than Hall. Allen has forced 5 missed tackles on 27 attempts (0.185 per attempt) while Hall has forced 7 missed tackles on 56 attempts (0.125 per attempt).
Braelon Allen. #Jets pic.twitter.com/UeC1RCq6Ov
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 23, 2024
Overall, no matter what the explanation is, there has been a stark difference in effectiveness between Allen’s plays and Hall’s plays. Among 53 running backs (min. 20 carries), Allen is seventh in EPA per attempt (0.12) and third in success rate (59.3%). Hall is 43rd in EPA per attempt (-0.28) and 49th in success rate (26.8%). Yes, you read that right: Allen’s carries are more than twice as likely to be successful (generate positive EPA) than Hall’s.
This extends to the passing game, too. Among 90 running backs (min. 9 targets), Allen is 19th in EPA per target (0.34), while Hall is 62nd (-0.24).
It is difficult to explain why Hall has been so much less effective this year than last year, but four games in, the results are the results. Allen’s plays are yielding far better results than Hall’s plays. So, until anything changes, the Jets should close the gap between Allen and Hall’s workloads.
Just like with the Ruckert-Bates and Gipson-Corley situations, the solution here is not extreme. The Jets should not bench Hall. The Jets should not make Allen their go-to guy. It has only been four games. That is not enough to suddenly give up on a guy who many people (myself excluded) thought would be the best running back in football less than one month ago.
The solution is to slowly close the gap and see what happens. In fact, the Jets have already begun trending down this path. Take a look at the split between Hall and Allen’s offensive opportunities in each game:
- Week 1 at San Francisco: 92% Hall, 8% Allen — 22 Hall plays (16 rushes/6 targets), 2 Allen plays (1 rush/1 target)
- Week 2 at Tennessee: 67% Hall, 33% Allen — 22 Hall plays (14 rushes/8 targets), 11 Allen plays (7 rushes/4 targets)
- Week 3 vs. New England: 60% Hall, 40% Allen — 21 Hall plays (16 rushes/5 targets), 14 Allen plays (11 rushes/3 targets)
- Week 4 vs. Denver: 63% Hall, 37% Allen — 15 Hall plays (10 rushes/5 targets), 9 Allen plays (8 rushes/1 target)
Over the last two games, the Jets have already flirted with a 60-40 split in Hall’s favor, which in itself is far closer than what anybody imagined prior to the season. So, the Jets deserve some credit for already pushing this forward.
This week against Minnesota, they should take another step. If I were Hackett, I would experiment with a 50-50 split and see what happens. In a perfect world, a fresher version of Hall maximizes the reduced workload to get his efficiency back up to where it used to be, while Allen remains just as efficient as he has been considering he remains in a non-workhorse role.
A balanced two-headed monster of Hall and Allen would be devastating for opposing defenses. You either have a fresh Allen or a fresh Hall on the field at all times. Assuming it gets Hall back to his peak effectiveness, how would defenses stop that combination? Sure, it would diminish Hall’s individual ceiling compared to what we all expected, but that is not what matters. The team’s success is what matters.
Just look at the success of Detroit’s thunder-and-lightning duo, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They have received an almost 50-50 split of the offensive opportunities this year (72 carries-plus-targets for Montgomery, 67 for Gibbs). Both running backs are talented enough to be the workhorse for many teams, but they are each more dangerous when they do not have to carry as much of a workload, and Detroit is reaping the benefits.
Montgomery (5.1/17th) and Gibbs (5.4/14th) are each averaging over 5.0 yards per offensive opportunity (carries-plus-targets) this season, placing both of them in the top-17 among the 49 running backs with at least 30 opportunities. Thanks to their combination of efficiency and volume, they both rank in the top 12 among running backs in total scrimmage yards; Montgomery is 11th (365) and Gibbs is 12th (361).
Hall and Allen are capable of mimicking this model.
Maybe it doesn’t work. Perhaps Allen’s efficiency will dwindle with an uptick in touches from his current No. 2 role. Perhaps Hall needs a heavier workload of touches to get his rhythm back. Maybe Allen and Hall’s early-season performances are outliers, meaning Allen cools off and Hall heats up, therefore bringing us back to square one when we thought Hall should be dominating the touches.
If any of those things happen, there is nothing stopping the Jets from quickly adjusting. But the experiment is worth attempting.
Right now, the Jets have one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL and one of the least efficient, yet it’s the latter who is getting the majority of the touches. The disparity in performance between these two players may seem like a shock compared to what we expected, but as surprising as it may be, it is the reality until proven otherwise, and the Jets should adjust accordingly.
