Yes, even after firing Robert Saleh, the New York Jets still have to put up with Nathaniel Hackett as their offensive coordinator. But that doesn’t mean the offense must remain completely untouched.
Saleh was the Jets’ head coach. And not in a Rex Ryan sort of way. While Saleh is a former defensive coordinator, he wasn’t calling defensive plays for the Jets, nor did his efforts lean toward that side of the ball as Rex’s did. Saleh was brought in to be a CEO-type coach who had his fingerprints on all facets of the team.
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So, yes, Saleh did have a major effect on the offense, and yes, Jeff Ulbrich has a chance to facilitate improvement on that side of the ball.
Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo summed up Ulbrich’s potential impact on the offense in an expertly laid-out X post. As per Sabo’s post, here are some “extremely surface-level ideas” a head coach of Saleh’s mold (now Ulbrich) might throw out during the week:
- “How should we handle tempo? Do they handle it well? Has anybody tested them yet this year? We know this: O’Connell is an aggressive game manager; when things get tight, he lets his QB sling it.”
- “Let’s do everything we can to jump on them from the start. Since they haven’t experienced much time (if any) while trailing in games this year, we have to have to deploy an aggressive mindset from the jump.”
- “Man, they love run-fitting aggression and really gamble on defense. Flores is a high-risk, high-reward defensive mind. Hey, Hack, how do we feel about an uptempo look from the start that forces them to spread out from the jump (empty, five-wide weapon, etc.)?”
This is what happens when fans completely SPLIT offense and defense. It's not even close to reality.
The head coach sets the tone for the entire week and spearheads the game plan, which is something that goes well beyond what happens on offense and defense. For instance, here… https://t.co/vcEIzysvfz
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) October 8, 2024
So, yeah, Hackett still designs and calls plays for the Jets. But it’s now on Ulbrich to establish the overall mentality and philosophy of the offense during game prep each week. And if Ulbrich can enforce some changes in that role compared to what Saleh was bringing to the table, he can jumpstart the Jets offense regardless of Hackett still being the man who holds the play sheet on gameday.
Here are some changes Ulbrich should aim to integrate.
More motion
Many people are calling for the Jets to use more pre-snap motion. They have a point; according to NFL Next Gen Stats, New York ranks 31st with a pre-snap motion rate of 46.5%, ahead of only the Broncos.
The Jets are far behind the league average of 62.7%. So, while most teams are using motion nearly two-thirds of the time, the Jets are using it less than half the time. That is a major disparity.
When you look at the top of the motion leaderboard and see the teams/coaches who are up there, it becomes obvious that New York is behind the curve.
Here are the top teams in motion usage this season:
- Dolphins (84.9%) – Elite offense in recent years when the starting QB has been healthy
- Rams (82.8%) – Won Super Bowl with this scheme
- 49ers (80.2%) – Consistent elite offense with this scheme, 2 NFC championships
- Lions (78.5%) – Great offense (7th in PPG)
- Chiefs (78.0%) – Speaks for itself
- Packers (77.9%) – Great offense (8th in PPG)
- Bills (77.7%) – Elite offense (3rd in PPG)
- Texans (71.4%) – Cold start this year but a great offense in 2023
That is a who’s who of the league’s most explosive offenses and most respected offensive coaches. Why not try to place yourself among that company? If these teams are relying on motion, it is probably a smart thing to do.
The bottom of the motion list is much less appealing. Here are the bottom eight teams in motion usage this season:
- Broncos (33.4%) – 28th in YPG
- Jets (46.5%) – 27th in YPG
- Colts (46.6%) – 11th in YPG
- Browns (47.2%) – 32nd in YPG
- Commanders (47.6%) – Exception… 1st in PPG, 3rd in YPG
- Bears (48.7%) – 26th in YPG
- Jaguars (50.3%) – 13th in YPG
- Titans (54.5%) – 30th in YPG
Outside of the sensation that is the Washington Commanders, there are a lot of putrid offenses in there.
It is obvious that relying on pre-snap motion is a wise move in the modern NFL. However, Aaron Rodgers has said in the past that he is not a big fan of motion. He spoke about this in 2022, saying he sometimes “gets after” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur for using too much motion.
“When you have so much motion, it’s hard to get tempo going. You always have to make sure you’re set, and you have a motion, or a double motion, or a jet off of it,” Rodgers said.
Too bad, Aaron.
This is where Ulbrich needs to step up and be the leader in the room that Saleh could not. Rodgers is a player. Ulbrich is the head coach. Rodgers’ outdated preferences cannot continue to hold the Jets back when the offense is performing as poorly as it is – especially when Rodgers himself is performing poorly.
Ulbrich has an opportunity to make a statement by imposing changes that need to be made. Enough of the archaic offensive ideologies. It’s 2024. Let’s put people in motion to open up more space, create advantages for our talented playmakers, and make it easier for our quarterback to read the defense.
Ulbrich might not call the Jets’ offensive plays, but he can step up in the room and demand that the Jets use motion more often as part of a philosophical shift. They have motion plays in the playbook; they’re doing it almost half the time. How often they use those plays is something that can be altered by the overarching mentality and philosophy imposed by the head coach. Saleh, ever-conservative and ever-complacent, went along with Hackett and Rodgers’ ways. Ulbrich does not have to.
More. Motion.
Less predictability with motion
Whether the Jets use more motion or not, one thing they definitely must improve is their predictability with motion. New York is making it easy for teams to predict what’s coming based on whether they use motion.
The Jets have run the ball on 45.9% of their motion plays. This is fine; it is almost equal to the league average (45.7%). The problem is the Jets’ play calling without motion. When the Jets do not use motion, they run the ball only 26.2% of the time, ranked 30th in the NFL.
The 19.7% disparity between New York’s run rate with motion versus without motion is the sixth-largest in the NFL. Essentially, the Jets’ motion decision gives opponents a nearly 20% boost in predictability on what might be coming. Motion? It’s a coin flip, so be prepared for a run. No motion? Very good shot of a pass.
This predictability has been most palpable on early downs, which have been the Jets’ biggest problem. New York still ranks 10th-best on third down with a 42.3% conversion rate, but the Jets’ 4.2 yards per play on first or second down ranks 31st ahead of only the Browns. Their early-down failures can be traced back to their predictability.
On first or second down, the Jets have a 24.8% disparity between their motion run rate (53.1%) and their no-motion run rate (28.3%), fourth-largest in the NFL and even higher than their overall disparity of 19.7%. This makes the calculus very simple for opposing defenses. Play the run if there’s motion, sit back if there’s not.
It is imperative for Ulbrich to facilitate a deep dive into the Jets’ play calling tendencies and figure out where they can be less predictable. This is just one of many areas where the Jets are tipping their hand.
Dump the 12 personnel into the Hudson River
Ever since he was hired in 2021, Saleh had been trying to build the Jets into an essential carbon copy of the 2019-20 San Francisco team he hailed from. Defensively, it’s worked pretty well, but his offensive visions failed miserably.
Part of that vision was to be a run-first offense that relies on heavy personnel packages. That has trickled into 2024. The Jets have used 12 personnel (1 RB/2 TE/2 WR) on 26.6% of their plays this year, ranked eighth in the NFL.
If you’re Ulbrich, the message in this area should be simple: STOP.
Due largely to their abysmal blocking at the tight end position, the Jets’ 12 personnel package is utterly awful. They rank 30th in the NFL with 3.3 yards per play when using 12 personnel.
Most of the other teams that have struggled this much with 12 personnel are barely using the package. Of the six other teams averaging less than 4 yards per play with 12 personnel, four are using it less than 15% of the time, and all of them are using it less than the Jets are.
Among the top 10 teams who have used 12 personnel the most frequently, the average yards per play is precisely 5.0. The Jets’ 3.3 is the worst among those 10 teams by nearly a full yard compared to the closest team. New York’s 12 personnel package is nowhere near good enough to justify how often it’s being used.
The bottom line is that New York has been extremely stubborn by continuing to feature this package. It is time to toss the 2-TE sets aside and focus on things the Jets are better at.
This is another miscue that reflects back on Saleh. Dating back to 2021, the Jets have been doing this largely because of the mentality Saleh was trying to establish from the day he walked in the building: run-first, safe, conservative, ball-control, rely on the defense, protect the QB – yada, yada, yada.
Enough. It’s not working. The Jets do not have the talent at tight end to use 12 personnel. Get the second tight end off the field and start getting your best five players on the field.
If you take out the 12 personnel plays, the Jets are averaging 5.0 yards per play. That still isn’t great – if you averaged 5.0 yards per play overall, it would tie the Raiders and Giants for 21st – but it is miles ahead of their unspeakable 3.3 yards per play with 12 personnel. That is a half-yard worse than the Browns’ league-worst 3.8 yards per play.
The Jets’ overreliance on 12 personnel is primarily hurting them in the run game. Out of 12 personnel, the Jets are averaging -0.38 Expected Points Added (EPA) per attempt, which ranks 27th. Their success rate (percentage of runs generating positive EPA) is a dismal 25.0%, ranked 30th.
With any other package, the results look completely different. Without 12 personnel, the Jets are averaging -0.01 EPA per rush attempt (15th) with a 47.5% success rate (6th).
With Jeremy Ruckert (41.0 PFF run-blocking grade) having a poor season as a run blocker, I suggested the Jets give more snaps to Brenden Bates in the Vikings game. They obliged, giving him 10 snaps, and, boy, was my suggestion a foolish one. Bates missed block after block on his way to a 30.2 run-blocking grade. He now has a 42.0 grade on the season.
Ruckert and Bates are both having terrible seasons as run blockers, and neither offers you anything in the passing game, either. There is no situation where the Jets are a better team by placing either Ruckert or Bates on the field over Mike Williams or a second running back.
Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Tyler Conklin are the Jets’ three every-down skill players. The results yielded by the other two skill spots are largely dependent on the coaching staff’s deployment decisions. It’s time for the Jets to drop the “identity” schtick and put the best five out there. Drop the 12 personnel and increase the 11 personnel (more Mike Williams) and 21 personnel (more Breece Hall/Braelon Allen packages).
Ulbrich has a chance to impose drastic changes in the Jets’ offensive identity. Will he do it? Or will we see more of the same? We’ll get our first glimpse on Monday. I will be keeping an eye on these three specific areas to track whether the head coaching change resulted in any instant changes to the team’s offensive philosophy.
