Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the first coming of the lord and savior for the New York Jets. Now, he’s joined by his faithful lieutenant on the road to redemption, Davante Adams (pardon the mixed metaphors).
Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett already reviewed Adams’ film from the 2024 season so far and gave the lowdown on whether he is still the same elite receiver as his reputation would suggest. Going on the premise that he is, indeed, still playing at a high level, here are the specific areas where Adams can help the Jets’ offense.
Chemistry
This one is obvious. Rodgers and Adams have perhaps the best chemistry of any quarterback and receiver in NFL history. From 2018-21, Adams averaged 119 receptions, 1,463 yards, and 14.5 touchdowns per season. They had almost a psychic ability to read what the other was thinking and adjust accordingly.
Rodgers once described a play against the Browns where he wanted to give Adams a hand signal to change his route but decided against it. Adams freelanced the route exactly as Rodgers wanted, resulting in a touchdown.
The Jets’ quarterback relies on chemistry with his receivers perhaps more than any other passer in the NFL. He has not had that with any of the Jets’ receivers except, perhaps, Allen Lazard. Time after time, Jets receivers fail to look for the back-shoulder ball at the sticks or adjust their routes based on the coverage and leverage. If there’s any receiver who will do that, it’s Adams.
In particular, Garrett Wilson has consistently been out of sync with Rodgers. If these balls went to Adams instead of Wilson (or, in one case, Xavier Gipson), they would have likely if not certainly been caught.
Then there were the game-sealing interceptions to Mike Williams over the last two games.
The first was a bad throw by Rodgers, as he placed the ball too far inside. Still, with better chemistry, Williams would have been expecting the ball and at least had an opportunity to make a contested catch or prevent the interception.
On the second, it is arguable whether Rodgers underthrew the ball or intentionally placed it in that spot to put Williams’ body between Taron Johnson and the ball. Regardless, Williams failed to adjust and slipped, allowing Johnson to intercept the pass. The crux of the play, though, was Williams running the wrong route.
Rodgers should not have called him out for it in his press conference, but it is pretty clear on the replay that Williams was supposed to run the route up the sideline outside the numbers. If Adams and Lazard had been running that route combination together, that’s likely a completed pass.
From 2018-21, Adams averaged 10.8 targets per game. That is a baseline expectation for what he will see from Rodgers. He also caught 70.6% of his targets over that time, never going below 66.9% in a season.
Adams’ catch rate dipped to just 59.9% over the past two seasons. For a 31-year-old receiver, that can certainly be taken as a sign of decline. Adams’ ESPN receiver metrics have also nosedived, going from an 83 overall score in 2021 (3rd-ranked) to 66 in 2022 (22nd), 59 in 2023 (34th), and 52 in 2024 (37th). (To be fair, I have not found ESPN’s receiver metrics to be all that accurate, but other sites that track receiver data concur that he has declined.)
However, Blewett’s film review demonstrates that Adams still has his route-running precision and nuance, which means he and Rodgers should be able to pick up where they left off.
Tough catches
One of the biggest issues the Jets have had in their passing game is the inability to make tough catches. They’re not drops, exactly, and sometimes they’re not even contested catches. It’s more that Jets receivers rarely catch anything that is not exactly on target and in their bread basket. This was on full display against Minnesota and reared its ugly head against Buffalo, as well.
Garrett Wilson had his best game of the season against Buffalo. He caught 8 of 10 targets for 107 yards and a score. Six of his eight receptions (75%) went for first downs when he was at just 54.5% in the five games prior.
However, the two balls he failed to catch were critical. They were plays a team needs from its No. 1 receiver. Both plays were in the end zone on third down. Those two drives resulted in three combined points, as Greg Zuerlein missed a 32-yard field goal after Wilson’s second non-catch.
The Jets did not lose because of Wilson. Had Zuerlein been able to make his field goals, the Jets would have won. If not for a boneheaded holding penalty against Tyron Smith (the play before Wilson’s second non-catch), the Jets would have won. If not for Mike Williams running the wrong route, the Jets might have won. If not for Ashtyn Davis playing with outside leverage in the red zone, the Jets might have won. If not for, if not for, if not for.
Still, if the receiver on those plays was Davante Adams, there is a far greater chance that at least one if not both of those balls would have been caught. The 216-pound Adams is far better suited to use his body to wall off defenders from the ball than the 187-pound, scrawny Wilson.
Watch Adams do exactly that in the Raiders’ first game this season.
Now that Adams is with the Jets, he will almost certainly be the target in those situations. He was 5-for-8 on contested targets this year with the Raiders, although he was just 12-for-34 (35.3%) last season. Adams is not an elite contested catcher, but his 43.3% career rate dwarfs Wilson’s 34.8%.
Williams could have potentially been that receiver, as he has been one of the best contested-catch players since he entered the NFL. However, he and Rodgers have not gelled, and the Jets are now expected to trade him before the deadline.
There were many other examples of such situations throughout the season.
Here, Adams would have almost certainly made the catch. It was a picture-perfect throw, and Lazard dropped it. The Jets had to settle for a field goal, which could have influenced the script on the Jets’ final drive.
It is worth noting that Adams has had drop issues at times. His 6.6% career drop rate is worse than the 6.1% league average for receivers in 2023. He had an 8% drop rate last year and was at 10% through three games this season. Still, from 2017-21 with Rodgers, Adams averaged a 4.6% drop rate. He dropped just five balls compared to 238 receptions (2.1%) in 2020-21.
Even after catching 80% of his targets against Buffalo, Wilson’s 63.1% catch rate is still the third-lowest among 20 receivers with an average depth of target under 10.0. Though he’s been charged with only one drop, he’s not making the plays a top receiver must make.
Adams is far more likely to make them despite some inconsistent numbers with his hands. He made plenty of tough catches over his years with Rodgers.
Touchdowns, not field goals
The Jets have been mediocre in scoring touchdowns this season. They rank 18th in red-zone touchdown rate (52.9%) and 19th in touchdowns per drive (0.21). It cost them against the Bills when they converted just one of their four red-zone drives into touchdowns.
The Jets’ biggest problem with scoring touchdowns right now is that their best receiving weapon isn’t all that adept at finding the end zone.
In 2023, receivers with at least 60 targets averaged a touchdown catch on 4.8% of their targets and 7.7% of their receptions. For his career, Wilson has caught a touchdown on just 2.7% of his targets and 4.6% of his receptions, far below the 2023 averages for receivers. Even this season, he’s merely close to average with a touchdown on 4.6% of his targets and 7.3% of his receptions.
Williams has far better career marks. He’s scored on 6.1% of his career targets and 9.7% of his career receptions. He could be one solution for the Jets, but Rodgers simply doesn’t trust him.
It is unnecessary to compare Tyler Conklin’s touchdown numbers to other tight ends’. He has not scored a touchdown in his last 32 games. He lacks any real vertical capability and has just 16 career red-zone targets in two-plus seasons with the Jets. Conklin has a nose for not finding the end zone.
Astonishingly, Allen Lazard is the Jets’ best touchdown threat. He has scored on 7.6% of his career targets and 11.9% of his career receptions. His career marks when Rodgers is his quarterback are even better: a touchdown on 8% of targets and 12.4% of receptions. Those marks would have ranked 9th and 11th, respectively, among 71 qualified receivers (min. 60 targets) in 2023.
Still, as Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania explained, Lazard is generally far more productive as a complementary weapon. Therefore, they need another legitimate scoring threat.
Enter Adams. He has scored on 7.2% of his career targets and 10.8% of his receptions. Though those numbers took a dip in 2023 (4.7% and 7.8%), he was at 8.2% and 14% as recently as 2022 when he scored 14 touchdowns. That season, he caught footballs from another quarterback with whom he had previous chemistry (Derek Carr).
Again, there is no guarantee that Adams can live up to his previous standard or even close to it. But if he is at even 80% of his prime, that still gives the Jets another excellent touchdown threat.
Effect on Garrett Wilson
This may be the most important element of all. Wilson has been consistently disappointing since his rookie season. A strong game against Buffalo notwithstanding, the Jets don’t seem to be able to unlock his potential.
Wilson’s target share will certainly plummet with the acquisition of Adams. The Jets have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game this season. If Adams eats up 10.8 of those (28.8%), it is highly unlikely that Wilson will get anywhere near the 10.8 targets per game he has averaged until now.
However, having Adams occupying the defense’s attention could bring back the big-play element for Wilson. For one thing, it will give him better matchups and keep safeties away from him over the top.
More importantly, having Adams will allow Wilson to get away from running go routes. That has never been his strength. He is at his best in the middle of the field, particularly on crossing routes and digs. He’ll be able to run those more frequently with a genuine deep threat.
Even without Adams, the Buffalo game showed how to get Wilson going. His two biggest plays were 24 and 23-yard gains on crossing routes. He caught another in-breaker for 14 yards and a slant for 14 yards. Yes, he also had a 16-yard screen, but a good chunk of his success came on routes over the middle.
It was surprising to see Rodgers’ willingness to target Wilson over the middle on anything other than a slant. He is generally averse to throwing over the middle except on slants. Perhaps that was a focal point from Todd Downing, which would be a major credit to the Jets’ new play-caller.
With Adams in tow, Downing can scheme Wilson open more often. That’s when his YAC ability can truly turn him into a big-play threat.
It’s not that Wilson can’t be the No. 1 receiver in the right offense; he did a pretty good job of it in 2022. But he is far better off as a No. 2, running a route tree suited to his strengths rather than taking on the burden of being a vertical threat.
Wilson may not have many 100-yard games in his future. But that’s the beauty of it: if Adams plays to his standard, the Jets won’t need 100-yard games from Wilson. They’ll have their No. 1 receiver. Everyone will slide down one spot in the Jets’ target hierarchy, which is better for all of them. And it’s best of all for Wilson.
There is certainly a reason for the Jets to be excited about their offense now that they acquired Adams. He checks many of the boxes that were previously missing. It is up to Rodgers and Adams to recapture their old magic and spark a more consistent and explosive output.
