Many New York Jets fans might pipe down about Breece Hall after his effort against the Buffalo Bills. After all, his box score statistics read 18 carries for 113 yards (6.3 yards per carry) and five receptions for 56 yards, which is a typical Hall stat line from the last two seasons. Production-wise, Hall was back to his usual self.
However, there was still a glaring sign in this game that something is not right with him.
Visit our New York Jets Analytics page to learn the advanced football numbers.
Hall’s inability to beat safety Taylor Rapp for the touchdown on his season-long 42-yard breakaway run was Exhibit A. He would ordinarily have been able to beat Rapp with speed in this situation. Many Jets fans were surprised that Hall did not find the end zone here; this play was a major turning point, as the Jets would end up settling for a missed Greg Zuerlein field goal.
Hall looked noticeably slower than usual on that run, and GPS tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats (NGS) backs up the eye test. NGS clocked Hall’s top speed on that run at 19.49 mph. That is a 2.0-mph drop from his 21.5 mph max speed in 2023, which ranked as the fifth-highest among running backs. Although Hall reached 20.27 mph on his best run this season, that is still a 1.2-mph drop-off from his 2023 max.
Perhaps this can be chalked up to a small sample size. However, seeing Hall reach only 19.49 mph on an untouched breakaway run is highly concerning. That is exactly the type of run where running backs typically reach their highest speeds for the season. A player’s max speed on a breakaway is a fairly good way to gauge their long speed.
Compare the above play to Hall’s fastest play from the 2023 season. On another untouched breakaway run, Hall reached 21.5 mph.
Here is another 2023 breakaway run where Hall maxed out at 20.37 mph, slightly higher than his max speed so far in 2024 and nearly a full mile per hour ahead of his run against Buffalo – even with this run going for only 36 yards and with a defender tripping him more than 10 yards downfield.
Among 34 running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Hall’s 20.27 mph max speed ranks 13th. Obviously, that is not a terrible mark, but for a player whose calling card is speed, it is too pedestrian. His 19.49 mph mark on the 42-yard run would rank 19th.
Furthermore, in his first game back from an ACL tear last year, Hall hit a higher max speed than he has so far in 2024. His first run of the year against Buffalo, a 26-yard scamper, clocked at a max speed of 20.21 mph. A later 83-yard run clocked at 20.54. In other words, Hall is running more slowly now than he did 11 months after tearing his ACL.
While GPS measurements are not the be-all and end-all of speed, in this case, the numbers match the eye test. Hall simply does not look fast or explosive on the field.
This is not the Breece Hall that Jets fans grew to love. He might never be the player who posted a 21.87 mph reading on his second-to-last run before tearing his ACL in 2022, or the one who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash. But the 21.50 top speed in 2023 suggests he still had a superior second gear, and that is completely absent this season.
This is the most concrete evidence yet that Hall may potentially be less than one hundred percent. He missed minicamp this season due to an undisclosed lower-body injury but participated fully in training camp with no notable signs of anything amiss. However, the running game is notoriously difficult to evaluate during camp without real contact, tackling, and full speed in the open field.
All the traits that made Hall one of the best running backs in the NFL are not present this year. He cannot make defenders miss; after averaging 0.258 missed tackles forced per touch in 2023, he is down to 0.110 in 2024. He averaged 3.41 yards after contact per carry in 2023, ranking 4th out of 41 qualifiers, but he’s at 2.95 in 2024, which ranks 24th out of 40.
Despite his improved numbers in the box score, these issues persisted against Buffalo. Hall’s production spiked primarily because the Jets finally had a fantastic run-blocking game. He gained a season-high 62 yards before contact after gaining only 3 yards before contact over the first 5 games. However, he averaged just 2.83 yards after contact per carry against the Bills, which is even lower than his season average of 2.95. He was credited with forcing just one missed tackle on 18 carries (although he forced two on his five receptions).
All of these issues could be traced back to an injury. If running backs coming off significant leg injuries see drops in these areas, it makes sense that a running back suffering from a current leg injury would see a dropoff in these areas, too.
Hall undoubtedly had nice moments against the Bills, especially in the passing game. His 24-yard catch from Aaron Rodgers over the deep middle was a route most teams wouldn’t dare attempt with their running back. In total, he caught 5 balls on 6 targets for 56 yards.
Still, the overall picture in the Bills game and this whole season suggests Hall may not be in peak condition. If so, it is certainly commendable for him to keep grinding, but it also explains why he does not look like the same running back. The Jets do not seem inclined to make any changes even if they know Hall is hurt, so perhaps it is a moot point. This is more of an explanation for fans than a call for action.
Additionally, perhaps it tempers my accusation of Hall’s lack of effort. As FTN Football Almanac and NBC Sports writer Rivers McCown pointed out to me, Hall may not have put in 100% effort to try to tackle Andrew Van Ginkel on his pick-six due to an injury. The GPS numbers coupled with Hall not looking right all season certainly make that case. In general, my finger-pointing at Hall was unfair to him.
With injuries mounting for the Jets, having a compromised Hall is a major problem and not an easily fixable one.
