Whenever a franchise signs a running back to a lucrative contract in today’s NFL, it’s something of a rousing statement—a major deviation from the direction the league is trending.
The running back position continues to become increasingly devalued in the NFL. Look no further than its $14.293 franchise tag value in 2026, the lowest among offensive and defensive positions. It joins tight end ($15.045M) as the only positions with a tag value below $20 million. This encapsulates just how far running backs have dropped down the positional value totem pole.
Because of the low value of running backs, many teams prefer to stay cheap at the position. Between mid-level free agents and post-first-round draft picks, it isn’t difficult to find quality running backs without using premium capital; hence, why teams hesitate to invest large chunks of cap space into the position.
There are a multitude of reasons for the decreasing value of running backs, but much of it is analytically driven. Teams have come to discover that running backs are mostly dependent on their surroundings to be successful. In most cases, save for a select few superstars, a running back’s impact is primarily determined by the quality of his situation: the blocking, the respect demanded by the passing game, the play-calling, and so on.
Rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards—teams in the analytics era have come to believe that all of these running back stats are much more determined by the offensive line, the quarterback, and the play-caller than the performance of the running back himself.
A growing belief around the NFL is that most running backs are merely byproducts of their situation; i.e., there aren’t many players at the position who make a significant difference compared to what another running back would do in the same shoes.
If most teams still believed that running backs could be substantial difference-makers, then the position wouldn’t have fallen to the lowest-paid non-special teams position in the sport. They’re not getting paid because teams more or less believe they don’t matter very much.
That brings us to Breece Hall and the New York Jets.
Is Breece Hall’s contract justified?
On Friday, the Jets inked Hall to a three-year, $45.75 million contract extension. He is now fifth among running backs in total contract value and third in average annual value ($15.25 million).
Given what we discussed about the state of the running back position, it stands to reason that, by signing Hall to this contract, the Jets are proclaiming that they believe Hall is an elite difference-maker at the position. They think his impact above a replacement-level running back is substantial enough to justify a $15-plus million salary at a position where many great teams are content with relying on the bargain bin.
So, is that really the case?
If we only look at box-score stats, it’d be easy to answer that question with a no.
Over the past three seasons (2023-25), Hall is just 12th among running backs in rushing yards (2,935) and 18th in rushing yards per game (59.9).
However, we have to include his tremendous impact as a receiver. After accounting for his receiving production, he jumps to ninth at the position in scrimmage yards (4,359) and 10th in scrimmage yards per game (89.0).
That looks better, but it’s still not close to matching his top-three salary.
There is also the lack of touchdowns, which creates an even bigger gap between Hall’s production and his salary. Since 2023, Hall is only 17th among running backs in total touchdowns (22) and 34th in total touchdowns per game (0.45).
Based on yards and touchdowns, Hall isn’t close to matching the contract New York signed him to. Of course, there is the caveat that the latest young, star player will always sign for top market value, but even considering that, Hall’s contract is an overpay based on box-score stats, especially given the lack of positional value.
Again, to justify signing a top-of-the-line contract at a non-premium position, the player had better be a game-changer; ranking 10th in scrimmage yards per game and 34th in touchdowns per game isn’t quite meeting that bar.
But box-score stats don’t matter in this conversation. At all.
Breece Hall’s real value
To understand how valuable a running back is, we have to account for their situation. The idea is to evaluate how much value he adds above expectation.
It doesn’t matter what his fantasy stats are; those are determined by his situation. There is a reason that many fantasy championships are won by the managers who are quick enough to add the backups to the latest injured stars—those backups are stepping into the same idealistic situation as the starter, and thus, can absorb the same numbers.
From a real football perspective, we want to know how much a running back helps his team sustain drives compared to what the average Joe would do with the same blocking, quarterback, and play-caller. That is how we understand what the player is worth, both monetarily and on the field (with the former being a byproduct of the latter).
It is through this lens that we can see Hall’s elite value.
According to NFL Pro, Hall racked up 241 yards over expected in the 2025 season, including 142 as a rusher and 99 after the catch. His 241 YOE was the seventh-best total among running backs. These numbers are calculated using GPS tracking data to estimate how many “expected” yards a player should gain on each play, based on the positioning of all blockers and defenders on the field.
- Bijan Robinson, ATL (514) — 257 RYOE, 257 YACOE
- James Cook, BUF (389) — 358 RYOE, 31 YACOE
- Derrick Henry, BAL (370) — 340 RYOE, 30 YACOE
- Jaylen Warren, PIT (305) — 181 RYOE, 124 YACOE
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (298) — 167 RYOE, 131 YACOE
- Jonathan Taylor, IND (274) — 195 RYOE, 79 YACOE
- Breece Hall, NYJ (241) — 142 RYOE, 99 YACOE
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (234) — 176 RYOE, 58 YACOE
- De’Von Achane, MIA (231) — 242 RYOE, -11 YACOE
- TreVeyon Henderson, NE (158) — 149 RYOE, 9 YACOE
This metric shows that Hall consistently created yards beyond what was blocked or schemed up for him. That’s where a running back’s true value lies, not in his total yards or touchdowns. Those things are determined by circumstances that are beyond the player’s control. What the player can control is how much he makes out of each situation compared to what the average guy would do in the same spot.
It’s nice to have a number to quantify it, but Jets fans have known this about Hall for years. Throughout his NFL career, Hall has dealt with a revolving door of poor quarterbacks, poor offensive coordinators, and bad offensive lines. Despite that, he has consistently managed to produce at a high level, and the eye test has shown that most of his production has come on self-created plays where there wasn’t much room given to him.
At the very least, Hall finally had a competent offensive line in 2025, but it still wasn’t great, and its decent play was overrode by historically bad play from the passing game, allowing teams to fixate on stopping Hall on the ground. Yet, he still was one of the top backs in rushing yards over expected.
Hall was also one of the leaders in YAC over expected, even with his play-caller strangely electing to give him a career-low 3.0 targets per game, a bizarre decision considering New York’s complete lack of reliable wide receivers.
The Jets are paying Hall the money they’re paying him because he has shown that he is one of the league’s best running backs when it comes to being a true difference-maker. There isn’t a single box-score stat out there that will justify his contract, but his value above replacement level can be seen in advanced metrics and the eye test.
The hope moving forward is that New York can give Hall a strong enough supporting cast to finally put up the superstar-level box-score stats he is capable of producing. If he can exceed expectations to the same degree in a more favorable situation, his raw production will skyrocket.
For now, though, the Jets are more than happy to pay Hall for the job he’s done with what he’s been given. As long as he continues to exceed expectations to the degree he did in 2025, the Jets will feel good about their investment.
Running backs who can merely meet expectations do indeed grow on trees, but running backs who can lift a team above their talent level do not, and Hall is a member of that rare breed.
