Between his penchant for missed tackles and social media antics, Sauce Gardner has been the subject of great ire among New York Jets fans this week.
The heat beneath Gardner’s seat gradually became warmer throughout a 2024 season in which many believe the two-time All-Pro has not been playing up to his standards. Following his big missed tackle in Sunday’s loss to Arizona and his ensuing comments online, things reached a boiling point. Gardner’s stock among Jets fans is as low as it has ever been.
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But are some fans and media members overreacting?
It is inarguable that Gardner’s tackling has been woeful and that his behavior on social media is unacceptable for a team leader. However, his overall play has not been quite as poor as the drama surrounding him would lead you to believe.
Gardner’s sustained positive impact on the Jets (even with his missed tackles) is best exemplified by working backward throughout New York’s team-wide defensive metrics. Think about it.
The Jets are third in the NFL in sacks this season (32). Yet, any Jets fan who has watched the team closely would tell you that the team’s pass rush has not been a strength this year based on the eye test. This is backed up by their team-wide pass-rush grade of 66.9 at Pro Football Focus, which only ranks 18th in the NFL. In addition, most of the Jets’ sacks do not occur until well after the ball is snapped. Of their 32 sacks, 24 of them (75%) came at least 4.0 seconds post-snap.
Do the math. The Jets’ pass rush is mediocre, yet they have the third-most sacks in the NFL, and three-quarters of those sacks occurred after four seconds. There is only one way this can transpire: excellent coverage leading to a plethora of coverage sacks.
Though it has certainly been an off year for Gardner, he remains the engine behind the Jets’ quality coverage. Many other aspects of the defense have fallen off a cliff, but the coverage remains solid. New York is allowing the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.4) and fourth-lowest wide-open target rate (19.0%), while they have the sixth-best team coverage grade at PFF (74.7).
The Jets have a few players who have covered well this season, but when you narrow it down, Gardner remains the MVP of the unit. Not only is he drawing CB1 responsibilities, but Gardner is the Jets’ only defensive back who has started all 10 games this season, and he leads all defensive players on the team with 345 snaps played in coverage. His coverage has undoubtedly been the primary driving force in allowing New York to rack up sacks at a much higher rate than they should be able to based on the true quality of their pass rush.
Individually, Gardner is still doing an excellent job of winning his assignments and forcing quarterbacks to move on to their next read. According to PFF, he has been targeted once every 9.8 coverage snaps, which is the eighth-best rate among 84 qualified cornerbacks (min. 200 coverage snaps).
This ability, while subtle and nothing that will show up on either the stat sheet or a highlight reel, is still something that makes an enormous impact. Without a CB1 who excels to this degree at preventing targets, the Jets would likely have a sack total that more closely resembles the true quality of their pass rush. Instead, Gardner has been quietly doing his job outside of the broadcast-TV view, forcing quarterbacks to hold the ball longer and therefore buying more time for his teammates to get home.
One would be remiss to leave out this part of Gardner’s game when discussing him. This is an elite trait that cannot be ignored despite his issues in other areas.
However, it is still fair to say that Gardner’s coverage has declined overall. Whereas he was arguably the NFL’s best cover corner from 2022-23, his coverage can only be described as “good” in 2024, which is a large step back. This is due to the results when Gardner does get targeted.
While Gardner has remained top-notch at limiting targets and making quarterbacks hold the ball, opponents have enjoyed far more success when challenging him than they did over his first two seasons. Gardner has yielded a 100.8 passer rating and 15.7 yards per reception on throws in his direction, both career-highs. His previous career averages were 63.0 and 9.9, respectively. On top of that, Gardner has already set a new career-high with 7 penalties after only having 5 in each of his first two seasons.
With excellent target limitation but subpar results when targeted, Gardner settles in as a good cover corner overall. His coverage grade at PFF is 69.4, which ranks 25th out of 84 qualifiers. While better than many people are giving him credit for, it is a far cry from his 90.8 in 2023 and 90.0 in 2022, which led the position each year.
Gardner’s results when targeted greatly diminish the overall quality of his coverage this year, therefore raising legitimate questions about where his stock truly lies as he enters contract negotiations with the Jets. When coupled with his egregious tackling and shaky off-field persona, is merely “good” coverage in 2024 enough for him to be made the NFL’s highest-paid cornerback before he has proven he can bounce back to covering at a dominant level?
There are arguments for and against it. On one hand, Gardner’s three-year body of work remains impeccable. Two first-team All-Pro appearances in a cornerback’s first three seasons is unprecedented territory, even if they came in the first two seasons before a third-year drop. It’s only been 10 games, anyway; there is time for him to balance his numbers out.
On the other hand, cornerback is a highly athleticism-based position where players often peak early decline quickly. Jets fans know how short Darrelle Revis’s prime was. Can the Jets afford to make a record-setting investment in Gardner before he proves that his 2024 season (thus far) was a fluke and not a sign of incoming decline?
Ultimately, at the current moment in time, it is best for Jets fans to avoid taking too strong of a stance on Gardner in either direction. To support Gardner too intensely would be to overlook his woeful tackling, alarmingly lengthy takeaway-less streak, massive decline in efficiency on targets in his direction, and questionable off-field choices. However, to criticize Gardner too harshly would be to overlook his historic three-year body of work and his still-excellent ability to deter targets in 2024, which has helped make an otherwise mediocre Jets pass rush look much better at times.
Gardner still has seven games left to get back on track. All Jets fans should hope to see him clean up his tackling and regain his previous stinginess on throws in his direction, thus re-establishing himself as one of the game’s clear-cut elite cornerbacks.
If Gardner can finish strong, it will be a no-brainer for the Jets to put these last 10 games in the rearview and make Gardner the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL. If his issues through the last 10 games persist over the next seven, the Jets will still likely pay him, but the conversation around whether it was the right move will become much more complex.
