After the New York Jets’ victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, it seemed like there was a split between the fanbase.
Some were ecstatic that the Jets were able to pull out a victory in a close game, something they haven’t been able to do this season. Meanwhile, others were thoroughly disappointed that the Jets “hurt” their draft stock by winning a meaningless game in a lost season.
Do the results of the game really matter in a lost season? Well, the answer may travel much deeper than a simple yes or no.
Top-5 or bust
For the Jets, only one thing truly mattered this season if the plan in 2025 is to move on from current quarterback Aaron Rodgers: Secure a top-five pick. There are two reasons for that line of thought.
A top-five draft pick increases the likelihood of another team trying to trade up for “their guy.” If there was a player that the Jets weren’t incredibly high on (or if they were “sniped”), it gives them the flexibility to move back in the first round and recoup capital while still landing a first-round talent.
The other scenario is that a top-5 pick gives the Jets a greater chance of landing one of the top quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL draft: Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. The odds of either of those players being available after the fifth pick in the draft are extremely slim.
On top of that, it doesn’t make sense for the Jets to reach with a top-10 pick by taking Jalen Milroe or Drew Allar (who some mocked to the Jets before he decided to return to Penn State).
Unfortunately, the odds of the Jets getting a top-5 pick this season were always slim to none.
A roster too talented
Bad news for Jets fans who want the team to tank: the likelihood of it ever happening was non-existent. That’s because the Jets’ roster construction simply doesn’t allow the team to be that bad in the grand scheme of things.
Rodgers was always going to start off slow this season because of his Achilles. Unfortunately, the Jets were unable to overcome that. However, once the Jets traded for Davante Adams midseason, any hope of a tank was washed away.
Regardless of what fans think of Rodgers, Adams, or even Sauce Gardner, the Jets’ problem was never their roster. The self-sabotage in New York was always due to inferior coaching. It was a problem with Robert Saleh, and it has continued under Jeff Ulbrich.
Unless the Jets planned on benching most of their starters, a top-5 selection was just a feverish dream for fans looking for a change in New York.
Are the Jets really missing out?
History has shown that selecting a quarterback in the top five doesn’t always pan out. It’s something that Jets fans are all too aware of. Yet, even if the team doesn’t opt to select a quarterback, are they truly missing out on an elite talent?
Fortunately, one can look right at the Jets’ recent draft history to find an answer to this.
It’s early, but Olu Fashanu, selected No. 11 overall last year, has looked like a long-term answer at the tackle position for New York. In 2023, No. 15 selection Will McDonald has turned into one of the better pure pass rushers in the NFL.
The Jets selected Gardner fourth overall in 2022. However, they also had two other incredible picks in that draft as well. The team chose Garrett Wilson 10th overall and Jermaine Johnson with their 26th pick. Both of those players have turned out to be key building blocks for the team going forward.
Tanking doesn’t work
The other aspect that the “tank” fans omit is that it never really works in practice. This is something else that Jets fans know all too well. For a team that has missed the playoffs for 14 straight seasons, nothing ever seems to get better.
The Jets have had 17 first-round picks since 2011, with an average draft position of 11.9. While some of those picks have been successful, they have never been enough to lift the team out of irrelevance.
That’s because, unlike most other sports, football is a true team game.
The 53-man roster makes it nearly impossible for one player to be a true difference-maker in terms of a team’s success. In conjunction with coaching, the ability of one player to make that type of difference becomes near-impossible.
We can also examine another team in recent memory to strengthen the idea that tanking doesn’t work.
Tank for Trevor – for what?
I will be the first to admit that it’s quite obvious Trevor Lawrence is much better than Zach Wilson. However, “tanking for Trevor” hasn’t done much for the Jacksonville Jaguars, either.
It’s impossible to play the series of “what ifs” that may have come with Trevor. However, we can look at what he’s done thus far with the Jaguars. In his first season, Jacksonville went 3-14 and owned the first overall pick for the second straight season.
The Jaguars would make the playoffs in 2022 and fall short in the divisional round. However, they missed the playoffs in 2023 with their second consecutive 9-8 season. This season, Jacksonville has converted back to its old ways.
With Lawrence at quarterback, the Jaguars were 2-8 this season. The former No. 1 overall pick looked like a shell of himself, despite having multiple weapons on offense. While his season would eventually be lost to injury, the Lawrence era in Jacksonville has shown that he wasn’t the generational prospect many once presumed.
So while it’s understandable that Jets fans want what’s best for the team, tanking doesn’t mean that it will fix what woes New York. In fact, it almost keeps the team in a perpetual cycle of mediocrity.
Because of that, selecting a top-five player will not change the culture and stigma surrounding the Jets. Filling the organization with the right people, from executives to coaches, is the only true variable that can turn the Jets from a bottom-of-the-barrel organization into a winning franchise.
