It’s the most extreme blend of apathy and desperation that sports has to offer: the final week of the NFL regular season.
Some teams, like the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings, will play as if their lives depend on it. Others could not care less about what happens.
The New York Jets undoubtedly fall into the latter category. After a season from hell, players are not hiding how eager they are to be put out of their misery. Veteran cornerback D.J. Reed already said that he is “ready to go to free agency” and “see what’s next for me.”
While the Jets have nothing to play for (besides “spoiling” the rival Miami Dolphins from earning what would likely be a third consecutive Wild Card beatdown), many fans at home are dreaming of a final push to climb the draft board. New York is one of a whopping nine teams situated between three and four wins, making Week 18 a tanking dogfight for the ages.
The 4-12 Jets are currently in possession of the seventh overall pick, but they could land anywhere from No. 2 to No. 10 by season’s end. Here is how the top 12 stands entering Week 18:
- New England (3-13 / .467 SOS)
- Tennessee (3-13 / .515)
- Cleveland (3-13 / .540)
- NY Giants (3-13 / .551)
- Jacksonville (4-12 / .474)
- Carolina (4-12 / .496)
- NY Jets (4-12 / .500)
- Las Vegas (4-12 / .544)
- Chicago (4-12 / .555)
- New Orleans (5-11 / .507)
- San Francisco (6-10 / .566)
- Indianapolis (7-9 / .460)
The Jets are one of five 4-12 teams tied for the fifth-worst record. They have clinched the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over Las Vegas and Chicago, protecting the Jets from falling behind one of those teams if they all have the same result this week.
The other two 4-12 teams, Jacksonville and Carolina, currently have the Jets beat in the SOS tiebreaker. Jacksonville has clinched the SOS tiebreaker over New York, so the Jets need a Jaguars win to surpass them, but New York’s schedule (136-136) is only one game behind Carolina’s (135-137), so that one could flip by the end of the week.
Meanwhile, four 3-13 teams sit ahead of the Jets. New York has clinched a lower SOS than three of those teams (Titans, Browns, Giants), giving the Jets an opportunity to surpass each of them if they end up tied at 4-13.
The only team in the top six that New York cannot surpass is New England. While the two teams can finish tied in the standings, New England’s nine-game advantage in SOS is too large for New York to make up in one week. The Patriots’ schedule has a record of 127-145 while the Jets’ has a record of 136-136.
The Jets also have the potential to drop three spots with a victory. Their SOS is currently two games weaker than the Saints’, which is a gap New Orleans could potentially close (although it is very unlikely), so if the Jets win while the Raiders, Bears, and Saints lose, the Jets have a chance to finish at No. 10. Most likely, though, the Jets’ floor is No. 9 if they win.
For Jets fans who want to see the team rise on the draft board, here is your rooting guide for Week 18. If each of these five outcomes occur, New York will have the second overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
Browns win @ Ravens
The Jets have clinched the SOS tiebreaker over Cleveland, so if New York loses and Cleveland wins, New York is guaranteed to have the higher pick.
This will be a tough one for the Browns, as they will be on the road against a Ravens team playing for the AFC North crown. However, Cleveland won the first matchup back in Week 8.
Panthers win @ Falcons
This one is not completely necessary for the Jets’ quest to the second overall pick, as the SOS gap between Carolina and New York is close enough that New York can technically surpass Carolina even if both teams lose. Carolina currently has the lower SOS and thus the higher pick, but only one game separates these teams’ schedules (135-137 versus 136-136), so the tiebreaker is up for grabs.
These are the outcomes that would tilt the SOS tiebreaker in New York’s favor over Carolina:
- Bengals win @ Steelers (worth 1.0 game)
- Bears win @ Packers (worth 0.5 games)
- Chiefs win @ Broncos (worth 0.5 games)
- Cardinals win vs. 49ers (worth 0.5 games)
- Lions win vs. Vikings (worth 0.5 games)
To be clear, the Jets most likely have to finish with an outright weaker schedule than the Panthers to win the tiebreaker. If the two teams tie in SOS, Carolina is currently projected to win the tiebreaker by way of the fifth condition. Here is the tiebreaking procedure for two teams from different conferences:
- Strength of schedule (Would be tied in this scenario)
- Head-to-head (NYJ and CAR did not play)
- Common games, minimum of four (NYJ and CAR only have two common games – ARI and DEN – so tiebreaker does not apply)
- Strength of victory (NYJ and CAR are tied at .297)
- Combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games (NYJ 45, CAR 57)
The wording for that final condition is a little confusing, but the NFL lays it out for us:
To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team’s position in the two categories; the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is “3.”
Currently, the Jets are 24th in points per game and 21st in points allowed per game, giving them a score of 45, while the Panthers are 25th in points per game and 32nd in points allowed per game, giving them a score of 57. If both teams lose, it would be realistically impossible for Carolina to make up that gap.
However, it is possible for New York to defeat Carolina by way of the fourth condition, strength of victory. While the two teams are currently tied in that department, the records of the opponents they each defeated will change after Week 18, potentially allowing New York to claim the tiebreaker before it gets down to condition number five.
Get all that?
Basically, to ensure they defeat Carolina in a tiebreaker, the Jets need to gain two games on the Panthers in the SOS department to outright surpass them. For that to happen, they must get the Bengals victory and at least three of the other four games. If the Bengals lose, the best the Jets can do is tie in SOS by getting each of the other four games to fall their way, which may or may not get it done. I’ll throw those games in here again so you can get the picture:
- Bengals win @ Steelers (worth 1.0 game) – Necessary to outright pass CAR
- Bears win @ Packers (worth 0.5 games)
- Chiefs win @ Broncos (worth 0.5 games)
- Cardinals win vs. 49ers (worth 0.5 games)
- Lions win vs. Vikings (worth 0.5 games)
A Panthers win would negate all of this, as it would allow the Jets to simply finish with an outright worse record by losing. It will be difficult, though, as the Panthers are just 1-6 on the road, with their only win coming over the pitiful Raiders. The Falcons are playing for a chance to win the NFC South.
Jaguars win @ Colts
The Jaguars have clinched the SOS tiebreaker over the Jets, so New York can only pass Jacksonville with a loss and a Jacksonville win.
Indianapolis is eliminated and has nothing to play for, so that could open the door for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 2-2 over their past four games, and they defeated the Colts back in Week 5.
Giants win @ Eagles
The Jets have clinched the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants, so the green team will be higher in the draft order if they lose and the blue team wins.
Philadelphia is locked into the No. 2 seed and has nothing to play for, making this a more winnable game for Big Blue than it may seem.
Titans win vs. Texans
New York has clinched the SOS tiebreaker over Tennessee, so they can jump Tennessee with a loss and a Titans win.
Houston is locked into the fourth seed and has nothing to play for. In the first matchup between these teams, Tennessee claimed the road victory in Houston, which remains their last win.
NY Jets Week 18 Tank Rooting Guide
If the Jets lose, each of the following results will push the Jets up one spot in the draft order; should all five of them occur, the Jets will pick second in the 2025 NFL draft:
- Browns win @ Ravens
- Panthers win @ Falcons
- Jaguars win @ Colts
- Giants win @ Eagles
- Titans win vs. Texans
The only caveat is that Carolina’s victory may not be necessary if things break right for New York to steal the tiebreaker. As a reminder, these are the games that would help the Jets make that happen (they trail the Panthers by 1.0 game and may or may not win the tiebreaker if the two teams’ SOS is tied):
- Bengals win @ Steelers (worth 1.0 game) – Necessary to outright pass CAR; would also need 3 of other 4 games
- Bears win @ Packers (worth 0.5 games)
- Chiefs win @ Broncos (worth 0.5 games)
- Cardinals win vs. 49ers (worth 0.5 games)
- Lions win vs. Vikings (worth 0.5 games)
In the event that the Jets win, here are the outcomes that would protect the Jets from falling any further than No. 7:
- Bears win @ Packers
- Raiders win vs. Chargers
- Saints win @ Buccaneers
