NY Jets: What will Steve Wilks’ defensive scheme look like?

After four years under Jeff Ulbrich, the New York Jets’ defense is in for a schematic overhaul under new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks.

Head coach Aaron Glenn has already stated that he will delegate play calling duties to Wilks, which means the Jets’ new DC will have a prominent role in molding the defense’s identity.

Glenn will also have significant input, so we don’t know exactly what the Jets’ defense will look like just yet. Most likely, it will be some combination of Glenn and Wilks’ respective philosophies. However, with Wilks holding the play sheet, it’s worth analyzing Wilks’ career tendencies to get an idea of what a Wilks-led Jets defense might look like.

Using data from NFL Next Gen Stats, I went back and compiled key metrics from Wilks’ five seasons as a defensive leader:

• 2017 Carolina Panthers (Defensive coordinator)
• 2018 Arizona Cardinals (Head coach)
• 2019 Cleveland Browns (Defensive coordinator)
• 2022 Carolina Panthers (Def. passing game coordinator, promoted to interim head coach after Week 5)
• 2023 San Francisco 49ers (Defensive coordinator)

Considering Wilks has never run the same team’s defense for consecutive seasons, it is somewhat difficult to pinpoint a precise read on what his defensive philosophies are. Unlike Glenn, he never got a chance to plant his feet in the ground and build something for multiple years. Each of his stops were one-and-done, meaning he was always at least partially influenced by the circumstances of the team he inherited.

That is where the value of agglomeration comes in. Combining all five of his seasons allows us to identify trends. If Wilks did something consistently across five different seasons with five different head coaches, that is likely a major part of his personal philosophy.

Without further ado, let’s break down Wilks’ tendencies as a defensive leader.

Personnel

Nickel usage

Whenever a new defensive coach is hired, one of the most popular questions is whether he is a 4-3 or 3-4 guy. In reality, for most defensive coaches in 2025, the answer is neither.

In 2024, NFL teams used a nickel package (5 DBs) on 65% of defensive plays. Only one team (Rams) used nickel less than 50% of the time.

However, some teams use their “base” package (4 DBs) significantly more than others. In 2024, there were six teams that used base more than 30% of the time, while there were five teams that used it less than 15% of the time. This is where the differentiation comes in, even if just about every team primarily relies on nickel in a league where three-receiver sets are king.

For Wilks, his tendencies in this area were among the most consistent in any of the categories I studied. Jets fans can be pretty certain about what to expect from him here.

A Steve Wilks defense will heavily rely on nickel. Across his five seasons, Wilks’ teams had an average ranking of 7th in nickel rate. Their average nickel rate was 74.4%.

• 2017 Panthers: 51.9%, 18th
• 2018 Cardinals: 85.9%, 1st
• 2019 Browns: 83.9%, 1st
• 2022 Panthers: 69.8%, 9th
• 2023 49ers: 80.3%, 4th

This rate is dragged down by the 2017 Panthers, who placed 18th with a 51.9% nickel rate. However, that team was led by a defensive head coach in Ron Rivera. In each of Wilks’ next four stops, he was either the head coach or working under an offensive head coach. Across those four seasons, Wilks’ teams had an average ranking of 4th in nickel rate, including first-place finishes with the 2018 Cardinals and 2019 Browns.

Wilks’ average nickel rate over his four most recent stops was 80%. Expect this to continue in New York.

This means the Jets will ask for more snaps out of their slot cornerback than most other teams. Fortunately, the Jets are prepared for this, as they have a great one in Michael Carter II. In this regard, Wilks’ philosophy is a great fit for the Jets’ roster.

The Jets were a nickel-leaning team under Saleh and Ulbrich, although not to the same extent as Wilks. Over the last four years, the Jets had a 71.8% nickel rate.

4-3 vs. 3-4

Given his heavy reliance on nickel, Wilks does not use base very often. His average base rate was 23.5% across his five stops, with an average ranking of 19th. If you remove the 2017 Panthers, those numbers dip to 17.7% and 23rd.

When he does use base, expect Wilks to lean heavily toward 4-3 alignments. Across his five stops, Wilks had an average 4-3 usage rate of 21.1% and an average 3-4 usage rate of just 2.2%. Another way to interpret those numbers is that Wilks deployed a 4-3 alignment 90.6% of the time when he used base.

In three of his five seasons, Wilks’ teams essentially never used 3-4 packages. Most of the reps came with the 2019 Browns (used 3-4 on 7.2% of all plays), with another chunk coming from the 2023 Niners (3.0%).

Dime

Dime packages (6+ DB) are not a fixture in Wilks’ defenses. His teams had an average dime usage rate of just 1.4%. Expect Wilks to primarily rotate one front-seven player for one defensive back, with dime packages being a rarity.

Coverages

Man vs. zone

Under Saleh and Ulbrich, the Jets leaned heavily toward zone coverage, although to a normal degree among NFL teams. From 2021-24, they had a 68.5%/31.5% split in favor of zone; the league average over that span was 70.5%/29.5%. So, they actually used slightly more man than the average team.

Like his nickel usage, this is another area where Wilks displayed a consistent trend across his previous stops. Under Wilks, expect the Jets to become a more zone-heavy team.

This data is unavailable prior to the 2018 season, but over Wilks’ four most recent stops, his teams employed an average zone-man split of 74.3%/25.7%. Each team ranked somewhere from 11th to 3rd in zone rate:

• 2018 Cardinals: 75.7% zone (3rd), 24.3% man – 2018 NFL average: 64.7%/35.3%
• 2019 Browns: 66.9% zone (9th), 33.1% man – 2019 NFL average: 62.7%/37.3%
• 2022 Panthers: 77.3% zone (8th), 22.7% man – 2022 NFL average: 70.9%/29.1%
• 2023 49ers: 77.2% zone (11th), 22.8% man – 2023 NFL average: 71.6%/28.4%

This is particularly notable because Wilks’ arrival tended to correspond with a substantial increase in zone usage for his team. The 2018 Browns ranked 26th in zone rate before jumping 17 spots to 9th under Wilks. Similarly, the 2021 Panthers ranked 27th in zone rate and jumped 19 spots to 8th in 2022.

The Jets ranked 24th with a 64.6% zone rate in 2024. Don’t be surprised if they jump into the top 10 this season, which would most likely entail running zone at least 75% of the time.

Coverage types

Seen below are Wilks’ average usage rates and rankings across his past four stops (data unavailable pre-2018) in each of the different coverage types.

1. Cover 3: 35.5% (11th)
2. Cover 4: 24.9% (4th)
3. Cover 1: 20.0% (26th)
4. Cover 2: 10.8% (19th)
5. Cover 0: 4.4% (13th)
6. Cover 6: 3.3% (26th)
7. Cover 2 Man: 1.2% (21st)

This is how Wilks’ usage rates compared to the NFL average (across the four seasons in the data sample: 2018-19 and 2022-23).

1. Cover 4: +10.5% (Wilks 24.9%, NFL 14.4%)
2. Cover 3: +3.8% (Wilks 35.5%, NFL 31.7%)
3. Cover 0: +0.1% (Wilks 4.4%, NFL 4.3%)
4. Cover 2 Man: -0.9% (Wilks 1.2%, NFL 2.1%)
5. Cover 2: -2.4% (Wilks 10.8%, NFL 13.2%)
6. Cover 6: -4.8% (Wilks 3.3%, NFL 8.1%)
7. Cover 1: -6.2% (Wilks 20.0%, NFL 26.2%)

Here are these numbers visualized in a pie chart; the color coding represents how much Wilks used the coverage relative to NFL average.

As you can see, Cover 4 (quarters) is the most notable staple in Wilks’ defenses. Each of his past four teams registered a top-five ranking in Cover 4 usage rate, combining to use it on approximately one-fourth of their plays. This is extremely high compared to the rest of the league, which typically uses it around 15% of the time.

Even more noteworthy is that Wilks’ teams rose an average of 14 spots in Cover 4 usage rate compared to the previous season. This was the highest average rise associated with Wilks of any metric that I analyzed in this study. If there is one thing Jets fans can count on him to do after reading this article, it’s run Cover 4.

Interestingly, though, the Jets were already a Cover 4-heavy team under Saleh and Ulbrich. They had an average Cover 4 rate of 26% across the past four seasons, even higher than Wilks’ rate.

However, the 2024 season marked the lowest Cover 4 rate of the Saleh-Ulbrich era, as the Jets used it 18.7% of the time. This still ranked eighth-highest, though. In each of the previous two seasons, they were over 28%, leading the NFL at 31.3% in 2022.

So, if Wilks maintains his heavy usage of Cover 4, it won’t be a culture shock for the Jets’ returning defenders.

On the contrary, Wilks’ reliance on Cover 3 would be a change of pace for New York. Wilks’ average Cover 3 rate of 35.5% is much higher than the Jets’ 26.8% rate from 2021-24, which was well below the NFL average.

Wilks’ increased usage of Cover 3 comes at the trade-off of Cover 1, which the Jets preferred but Wilks tends to avoid. The Jets used Cover 1 at a 28.2% rate from 2021-24 while Wilks’ rate was 20% across his past four stops; this gap is very close in size to the one that separates them in Cover 3.

The difference between Wilks and Saleh-Ulbrich in Cover 1 and Cover 3 usage largely explains the difference in zone and man usage. Both are single-high coverages, but in situations where Saleh and Ulbrich would call Cover 1 (man coverage for the outside corners), Wilks prefers to call Cover 3 (zone across the board). This is the main source of Wilks’ heavier lean toward zone coverage compared to Saleh and Ulbrich’s Jets.

Pass rush

Blitzing

Some of the tendencies we have discussed so far wouldn’t be a severe change for the Jets. Wilks loves to use nickel packages, yet the Jets already leaned that way. Wilks loves to run Cover 4, yet the Jets used even more of it.

This is the area where Wilks will likely change the Jets’ defensive scheme in the most significant way.

Blitzing is about to make a return in New York. Across his five seasons, Wilks’ teams registered an average blitz rate of 36%, resulting in an average ranking of 8th in that category. On average, Wilks’ teams rose six spots in blitz rate compared to their previous season.

• 2017 Panthers: 42.6% (1st)
• 2018 Cardinals: 41.6% (1st)
• 2019 Browns: 38.9% (4th)
• 2022 Panthers: 36.4% (6th)
• 2023 Niners: 20.5% (30th)

The numbers are skewed by Wilks’ 2023 season in San Francisco, where he mostly ran the 49ers’ defense the same way as his predecessors, DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh. San Francisco ranked 30th with a 20.5% blitz rate in 2023. Over his previous four seasons, Wilks’ teams had an average blitz rate of 39.9%, an average ranking of 3rd, and an average rise of nine spots.

Interestingly, Wilks was fired by San Francisco after one season, with head coach Kyle Shanahan citing philosophical differences.

“Just where we are and where we are going as football team from a scheme standpoint and things like it, looking through it all throughout the year and these last few days, I felt pretty strongly this was what was best for our organization,” Shanahan said after firing Wilks.

Perhaps the philosophical differences were more related to what Wilks wanted to do rather than what he actually did, because the 49ers defense looked pretty similar to previous years in his one season.

They had a low blitz rate (30th, as we just mentioned), even though Wilks loves blitzing. That was actually nine spots lower than their 2022 blitz rate under Ryans. In terms of coverage rates, they barely changed; San Francisco’s top four coverages under Wilks were in the same order as they were in 2022: Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 1, and then Cover 2.

And the defense performed excellently, too. It was not quite to the level of the 2022 team, which finished first in defensive DVOA, but they finished fourth under Wilks in 2023, which is still outstanding.

Wilks’ puzzling departure from San Francisco is a different story for a different day. Regarding the Jets, Wilks’ preference for blitzing would certainly be a major tone-shifter for a defense that became known for its lack of blitzing over the past four seasons.

The Jets’ average blitz rate from 2021-24 was 23.2%, below the league average of 28.1% and far below Wilks’ average of 36% across his past five stops. New York was particularly blitz-averse when the defense was healthy, talented, and able to execute Saleh and Ulbrich’s vision to the fullest. They had the NFL’s lowest blitz rate in both 2022 (16.3%) and 2023 (17.4%). Each rate is less than half of Wilks’.

New York pumped its blitz rate up to a 13th-ranked 30.2% in 2024 as a response to a dearth of talent in the trenches, but Saleh and Ulbrich’s core philosophy was to rely on the four-man rush and drop seven in coverage. They would only push the blitz rate up if it was necessary. Under Wilks, blitzing will be the norm on a weekly basis.

Zone vs. man blitzes

In accordance with his preference for running zone coverage, Wilks’ teams tended to use zone blitzes more than the average team.

Over his past four seasons, Wilks’ teams had an average zone blitz rate of 18% (average ranking of 11th) – i.e. they ran a zone blitz on 18% of all passing plays. If you remove the 2023 season in San Francisco, that number rises to 21.3% (average ranking of 5th). This is nearly double the NFL average of 11.8% over that span.

Wilks still called plenty of man blitzes, with an average rate of 16.3% across the past four seasons (average ranking of 15th), but he leaned much more heavily toward zone blitzing than most teams. Over his previous three stops pre-Niners, Wilks’ teams had a 54.8%/45.2% zone-man split on blitzes; the league average was 42%/58%.

Main takeaways

Here are the most consistent tendencies that can be identified from Wilks’ previous stops as a defensive leader:

• Heavy lean toward nickel over base
• In base situations, almost exclusively uses 4-3 over 3-4
• Heavy lean toward zone over man
• Loves Cover 4
• Prefers Cover 3 over Cover 1 in single-high
• Heavy blitzing, with a strong lean toward zone blitzes

Surely, Wilks will tweak some of his philosophies to fit the Jets’ situation. He will take his core philosophies and mold them according to Glenn’s vision and the makeup of the roster. We won’t know exactly what the Jets’ defense will look like until they take the field in Week 1.

Nonetheless, Wilks’ career background gives us an idea of what he will most likely seek to do in New York. There are a multitude of trends that consistently followed Wilks from one team to the next. It carries weight that there is so much consistency in his tendencies despite bouncing around so often, proving these trends are likely a product of his personal preferences.

In 2025, expect the Jets’ defense to be a blitz-heavy unit that primarily operates out of nickel and heavily relies on zone coverage. In base, they will likely continue to be a 4-3 team.

Keep these trends in mind as the Jets evaluate potential free agent, trade, and draft acquisitions in the coming months.