If you follow the NFL draft closely throughout the year, you know how quickly a wave can rise and fall. That goes not only for the stocks of individual prospects, but also for the rumored preferences of teams.
Consensus beliefs around the draft only last for so long. After a few weeks of Michigan cornerback Will Johnson standing out as the consensus favorite to be drafted seventh overall by the New York Jets, a new leader in the clubhouse has emerged.
According to NFL Mock Draft Database, these are the top 10 picks of the consensus mock draft as of March 2 (comprised using mock drafts only from the previous week):
- Tennessee Titans: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State (53%)
- Cleveland Browns: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (26%)
- New York Giants: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado (36%)
- New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU (49%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan (63%)
- Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State (23%)
- New York Jets: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State (21%)
- Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia (27%)
- New Orleans Saints: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona (23%)
- Chicago Bears: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas (21%)
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is the new favorite to be drafted by New York with the seventh overall pick. Johnson, meanwhile, is now projected to be selected 11th overall by the San Francisco 49ers.
Warren was a popular mock draft selection for the Jets ever since the regular season concluded, but steam has been picking up in recent weeks. This hype may be partly driven by NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, who mocked Warren to the Jets in each of his first two predictions. When Jeremiah doubled down on Warren-to-New York on February 20, it was one of only five selections in the top 10 that Jeremiah replicated.
While Warren is the new favorite to land in Florham Park, he is far from a slam dunk. With only 21% of mock drafts sending Warren to the Jets, their selection is tied for the least predictable in the top 10, equaling the Chicago Bears at No. 10.
Ultimately, mock drafts amount to nothing more than a fun exercise for fans and writers. Come draft time each year, the public is shocked when, surprise, surprise, NFL teams do not have the same opinions as the people making predictions in their bedrooms. Mock drafts tell us how people on the outside feel about the draft, but not necessarily NFL teams. That information cannot be known until the picks are actually made.
Nonetheless, mock drafts serve as a fascinating indicator of how prospects’ stocks are fluctuating in the eyes of the public. While teams do not always feel similarly, it is worthwhile to keep track of the NFL draft’s stock market if you are a die-hard fan of the sport or any particular team.
With so many key events happening throughout the build-up to the draft, mock drafts can keep you in the loop on who’s shining and who’s faltering in these events, whether it’s the Senior Bowl, the combine, pro days, meetings, top 30 visits, or anything else. They also reflect the rumors and reports that begin to emerge as important people around the league convene to spill some tea at NFL-wide events, such as the combine and pro days.
The Jets desperately need both receiving ability and blocking ability at the tight end position. Tyler Warren would address both issues in Tanner Engstrand’s offensive scheme, and it seems the word is getting out. But is the word getting out from the Jets themselves, or merely from outsiders connecting the dots? We’ll get the answer on April 25.
