When it comes to NFL draft discourse, narratives are omnipresent.
The draft is ultimately a guessing game, so to make the most accurate guesses possible, the best thing we can do is study history to develop trends that can be used as a guide. Those trends then get converted into narratives, which are used to back any and all draft arguments.
You’ve heard these narratives. They typically go along the lines of, “You can’t draft this position at this part of the draft” or “This type of prospect is much likelier to work out than that one.”
As Darren Mougey prepares for his first draft as the general manager of the New York Jets, this is the popular narrative he should not adhere to.
“You cannot take a RB or TE in the top 10”
Look, I’m an analytics-minded guy. Typically, I agree with the idea that running back and tight end are non-premium positions, thus making them ill-advised selections in the top 10.
But that isn’t a hard rule. While teams should lean towards this trend, every situation must be analyzed individually. Barring yourself from taking any particular position in a certain part of the draft could cause you to miss out on elite players.
The Jets are in a unique spot where using the seventh overall pick on a running back or tight end can be justified. Throughout history, most teams in this position did not have the same luxury.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is arguably the best running back prospect in at least 15 years. This is a draft class that is unusually light on blue-chip talents at the top. If Jeanty is on the board at No. 7, he could easily be the Jets’ highest-graded available player. With an offensive line in place that provided top-five run-blocking over the final 13 weeks of the 2024 season, Jeanty could immediately be a superstar in New York.
This draft features two tight ends receiving top 10-15 buzz in Penn State’s Tyler Warren and Michigan’s Colston Loveland. The Jets have arguably the worst tight end unit in the NFL as of today. As much as that would already increase the justification of drafting a tight end in any situation, the tight end position is especially important for this Jets team. They hired an OC from an offensive system that heavily utilizes 12 personnel, while they are committed to building a system around a run-first QB – which demands reliable tight ends.
These are very good reasons to go with Jeanty or a tight end. Whether these reasons make them the best options is contingent on the alternatives at the more premium positions.
If this draft class offered slam-dunk options at wide receiver and offensive tackle for the Jets to take at No. 7, it would be a no-brainer for New York to ignore Jeanty and the tight ends. They would not think twice about nabbing a tantalizing WR2 for their uber-thin receiver unit or securing a long-term starting right tackle to complete their offensive line.
That isn’t the case, though.
There is only one wide receiver prospect who is considered remotely close to worthy of a top-10 pick, and that is Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan. If the Jets love McMillan, then yes, they should prioritize him over the less premium positions. However, based on McMillan’s spotty film, it seems iffy that New York would give him a higher overall grade than players like Jeanty, Warren, or even Loveland.
After McMillan, only one other wide receiver prospect is ranked in the top 32 of NFL Mock Draft Database’s consensus big board, and that is Texas’ Matthew Golden, down at No. 20. It’s McMillan or bust regarding the Jets’ wide receiver options at No. 7. And unless the Jets like McMillan much more than the consensus, they would probably be reaching to fill a need if they took him.
The offensive tackle position is where the real debate comes into play. This is where the Jets will likely have legitimate options to compete with the non-premium positions.
Two tackles are ranked within the top-8 of the consensus big board: LSU’s Will Campbell (No. 7) and Missouri’s Armand Membou (No. 8). There is a realistic chance that at least one of them will be available when the Jets are on the clock.
If the Jets hold these prospects in a similar regard to the consensus, it should be a no-brainer to take them with the seventh overall pick. A tackle with a top-8 grade is easily more valuable than a similarly ranked running back or tight end prospect. Even if the competition were a “generational” running back or tight end, the top-8 tackle is arguably still a better selection.
That is if the Jets have Campbell and/or Membou graded that highly, though. We are going off the consensus here, but each team has its own individual board. A prospect ranked eighth by the consensus could be 20th on one team’s board.
And if the Jets do not love the best available tackle nearly as much as they love Jeanty or their favorite tight end, they should not allow narratives about positional value to force them into reaching for a prospect who they believe is significantly worse.
Taking the narratives about positional value into account, the best-case scenario for New York is that one of the top two tackles falls to No. 7, and Mougey likes them enough to take them. In a vacuum, a tackle makes a greater impact than an equally talented running back or tight end every day of the week and twice on Sundays. So, that is what the Jets should shoot for.
But they cannot force it to happen. They must stick to their board, even if it means going after a position that isn’t typically considered worthy of the seventh overall pick.
The key caveat, though, is to understand exactly how large of a gap there must be to justify taking a running back or a tight end over a tackle. If the tackle is graded slightly worse than the RB/TE, you take the tackle without hesitation. It is only if the tackle is significantly worse that you go for the less valuable position.
Membou is the prospect who may have the best chance of pushing the Jets toward Jeanty or a tight end. While he is currently the No. 8 overall prospect according to the consensus, Membou is a late riser who was not held in nearly as high of a regard before the draft process.
On January 3, Membou was No. 51 overall, and on January 27, he was No. 32. Only after an eye-popping combine did Membou begin to garner top-10 buzz. Thus, it begs the question: is he really a top-10 player, or are teams buying into workout-warrior hype in a class that lacks can’t-miss prospects at the top?
Clearly, some teams truly do value Membou highly enough to select him in the top 10, or else he wouldn’t be generating this type of buzz in the media. However, given where his reputation was before he got a chance to run 40 yards in a tank top, it is fair to wonder whether some teams still view him as the prospect he was when the only thing to judge him on was his film.
If the Jets are one of those teams, it could push them to take Jeanty or a tight end instead. It would shock fans and media members based on Membou’s current consensus ranking, but remember, teams do not operate off of that board. They draw their own conclusions – considering their own scheme, philosophy, and preferences – and operate around those.
To summarize, Mougey should not rule out any position at any part of the draft because of popular narratives. He must consider the unique situation at hand and make the best decision possible with all factors considered. This is an approach he must maintain throughout his entire Jets tenure, not just with this particular selection.
In this specific scenario, though, the debate is whether Mougey and the Jets can justify using their seventh overall pick on a “non-premium” position, specifically a running back or a tight end. For most teams in this spot, the answer would be “no,” but the Jets’ situation is unusual, and Mougey must embrace that.
If the Jets pass on a wide receiver or tackle at No. 7 in favor of Jeanty or a tight end, fans and writers would be unwise to immediately write it off as poor decision-making. The factors at play open the door for Mougey to consider all options.
