It wouldn’t be proper NFL draft coverage if we hyped up everything the New York Jets did. Criticism must be delivered where it’s due.
So, allow us to open a discourse about the selection that many view as the Jets’ most puzzling of the 2025 draft: Georgia wide receiver Arian Smith.
Chosen with the eighth pick of the fourth round (110th overall), Smith wasn’t a premium pick, but he wasn’t a throwaway pick, either. This is a spot in the draft where you’d love to get a solid day one backup who could develop into a valuable starter by the end of his rookie contract.
Smith, though, carries the resume of someone you would expect to be drafted much later on day three, if at all.
Arian Smith: Major weaknesses and lack of dominant production
Smith spent five years at Georgia and is already going to be 24 years old in his rookie season. You expect these players to come into the NFL with some degree of proven floor. Yet, Smith was a non-factor for the majority of his college career, and he was still unimpressive in his breakout year.
Smith failed to reach 10 receptions or 200 receiving yards in any of his first four seasons. At the end of his age-22 season, Smith had 20 career receptions.
The good news is that Smith finally broke out in 2024. However, even then, his peak wasn’t all that impressive for someone already 23 years old. He caught 48 passes for 817 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. Smith’s 58.4 receiving yards per game ranked 115th among FBS players.
More concerning than Smith’s pedestrian overall production is the number of major weaknesses in his game.
Smith dropped 10 passes, per PFF, tying him for the third-most in college football. Additionally, he caught just 2-of-9 contested targets; his 22.2% contested-catch rate was the seventh-worst among FBS wide receivers with at least nine contested targets.
While Smith was an active deep threat, his game severely lacked versatility. Smith ran a limited route tree that usually saw him running either a go or post route; he rarely did damage in other ways.
Smith was a total non-factor in the short range (0-9 air yards), catching just six short passes for 41 yards. In the intermediate area (10-19 air yards), he caught 12 passes for 240 yards. Altogether, that’s 18 receptions for 281 yards on passes thrown 0-19 air yards, an average of just 1.3 receptions and 20.0 yards per game.
To top it all off, Smith graded out as a below-average run blocker in PFF’s system (58.8) and committed five penalties.
So, what’s the appeal?
Smith’s appeal is completely upside-based. New York’s belief in his potential stems from his intriguing physical gifts.
If you want the game’s most uncoachable trait – speed – he’s got it in spades. Smith ran a 4.36 in the forty, which ranked fifth-best among wide receivers at the combine and placed him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers all-time.
To boot, Smith posted a 38-inch vertical (78th percentile among WR), 127-inch broad jump (83rd percentile), and 6.82 three-cone (74th percentile). This shows that he complements his straight-line speed with explosiveness and quickness, making him a complete all-around athlete.
Overall, Smith earned a RAS (Relative Athletic Score) of 9.20, the best mark among New York’s seven draft picks. Topping that list is an impressive feat, as New York tied for second in the NFL with six 8.0+ RAS players drafted.
On the field, the only consistently appealing aspect of Smith’s game was his deep prowess. In his career, Smith generated 19.7 yards per reception on an ADOT (average depth of target) of 17.0. At the very least, the man can get down the field and produce yardage in chunks.
Other than that, though, it’s all projection with Smith.
The film
A review of Smith’s film shows precisely what you’d expect based on the information presented. His wheels are undeniable, but that’s the only positive thing you can confidently say about him. The weaknesses show up constantly, and until he corrects them, his speed won’t mean much.
This is a poor curl route. On his break, Smith needs many elongated steps to halt his momentum. He begins his break around the 18-yard line, and by the time he gets turned around, he is all the way out at the 22, still drifting upfield. He then stumbles as he tries to get out of the break and come back to the quarterback.
While Smith was not targeted on this play, the route itself exemplifies why Georgia almost exclusively used him as a deep threat: his route-running needs significant development. You will never be open against man coverage at the NFL level if you need four yards to halt your momentum on a curl route and cannot get out of the break cleanly.
Smith does a nice job of threatening the CB deep and getting him to open his hips outside before cutting underneath him for separation on the post route. But he can’t haul in a low-but-catchable sliding attempt.
This play highlights the limitations of Smith’s frame. He is small across the board: 6’0⅛” height (35th percentile for WR all-time), 179 pounds (7th percentile), 31¼” arms (30th percentile), and 9″ hands (21st percentile). With a limited catch radius, he will struggle to grab difficult passes outside of his frame, such as this one.
This is not the most accurate screen pass you will see, but it is still a pass that should be caught 95% of the time by an NFL receiver, and Smith flubs it. He is very lucky it does not turn into a fumble or an interception.
Smith averaged a solid 7.9 YAC per reception in his college career. However, that mostly came from Georgia putting Smith in positions to maximize his speed, whether it was on deep passes or well-designed screens.
Elusiveness is not something Smith brought to the table, as he forced just six missed tackles on 68 career receptions. You see why on this play. Smith gets a favorable one-on-one in space but is halted in his tracks after a lackadaisical juke attempt.
Smith makes a pretty lazy cut on this in-breaker; he is jogging as he breaks over the middle. Despite the reduced effort, he still slips and falls. Smith ends up getting targeted over the middle, and he is lucky that his route does not cause an interception.
Every NFL wide receiver must be able to contribute as a blocker. Smith’s effort as a blocker is generally fine, but he shows too many instances of getting beaten due to poor technique.
Here is an example of Smith using his vertical speed to create a potential deep shot. This is far from the best coverage he will ever see, but he does a nice job of using his hands to clear himself through the contact, and the long speed is obvious.
Undeniable upside, but too low of a floor for the draft position
The Jets heavily focused on adding uncoachable traits throughout the 2025 draft class. They believe their coaching staff can fix players’ fundamentals and technique in coachable areas. As a result, they are willing to gamble on high-ceiling/low-floor players with elite physical tools and glaring on-field deficiencies.
While this logic applies to Smith as much as any of their picks, it feels as if the Jets jumped the gun a bit by taking Smith in the fourth round. Yes, he has uncoachable athleticism and fixable issues, but he has so many issues that it feels like the Jets could have found a much safer blend of ceiling and floor with the 110th overall pick.
Smith’s ceiling is high if the Jets can coach him up, but he has a long, long way to go before he gets there. He’s the type of player you’d love to have in your building with a late-day three pick or as an undrafted free agent, but near the top of the fourth round, the Jets likely could have found players with similar upside who require less development.
