Aaron Rodgers has unofficially become the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback, which means it’s time for Aaron Glenn and the New York Jets to start game-planning.
Rodgers will be Glenn’s first opposing quarterback as the head coach of an NFL team. The storylines write themselves. Glenn made the decision to dump Rodgers, while Rodgers publicly criticized Glenn for the way he handled a meeting with Rodgers about his future in New York.
On the field, though, it’s a favorable matchup for Glenn to start with. Many players on the Jets’ roster are familiar with Rodgers’ tendencies after playing with him last year. In addition, Rodgers was a below-average quarterback last year. Plus, the Jets are playing at home, where they have won their last two matchups against Pittsburgh.
Glenn has plenty of factors working in his favor to create a strong Week 1 game plan for Rodgers. But it’s critical to consider the details when crafting any game plan. You must mold your approach around the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent.
So, how does the news of Rodgers joining the Steelers affect the Jets’ Week 1 matchup from a game-planning perspective?
Let’s analyze how Rodgers matches up against Glenn and the New York defense.
Can Aaron Rodgers beat man coverage at 41 years old?
As the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator, Glenn became notorious for his heavy reliance on man coverage. In 2024, the Lions led the NFL with a 47.7% man coverage rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The league average was 30%.
This spells trouble for Rodgers, who was abysmal against man coverage with the Jets last season. Rodgers was much more efficient against zone coverage.
Per FTN Fantasy, here is a comparison of Rodgers’ numbers against man and zone in 2024 (ranks out of 40 qualifiers):
- Aaron Rodgers vs. man coverage: 6.3 yards per attempt (30th), -0.02 EPA per dropback (28th), -7.4% DVOA (27th)
- Aaron Rodgers vs. zone coverage: 7.1 yards per attempt (14th), 0.08 EPA per dropback (17th), -3.1% DVOA (23rd)
Rodgers wasn’t outstanding against either coverage, but he was clearly more comfortable throwing against zone. He produced decent results against zone, while he was poor against man.
These splits make sense for a 41-year-old quarterback. Against zone, Rodgers can rely on his brain to make sound decisions and keep the chains moving.
But against man, the windows get tighter and the pressure comes home quicker (as man coverage is often combined with a blitz). Arm strength, precise accuracy, and pocket mobility become more paramount, and with Rodgers being diminished in all of those areas, he struggled to make things happen against man coverage.
Here is an example of Rodgers misfiring on a Garrett Wilson dig route against man coverage. Even with a clean pocket and good separation from Wilson, Rodgers throws a should-be pick.
Rodgers’ signature deft touch on throws outside of the numbers wasn’t there anymore. He frequently missed throws along the sideline against man coverage, even on plays like this one where the receiver ended up wide open.
Glenn and the Jets need to lean into Rodgers’ zone-man tendencies. Going man-heavy against Rodgers is clearly the best way to stop him at this stage of his career.
The Jets’ plans for their defensive scheme remain unclear. While Glenn is known for his man-heavy preferences, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has been a zone-heavy coach throughout his career. Speaking at Jets OTAs, Wilks recently stated that the Jets’ defensive scheme will be “a collaboration of both of our schemes and what we’re trying to get done.”
Perhaps this means the Jets are willing to be fluid from week to week, molding to the right game plan for each opponent rather than sticking to their scheme for 17 games. It would be a welcome change of pace for the organization after Robert Saleh’s scheme-rigid approach over the last four seasons.
If that is the case, the Jets should lean toward Glenn’s philosophies in Week 1. Rely on your lengthy corners, Sauce Gardner and Brandon Stephens, to win in press-man coverage, and dare the 41-year-old Rodgers to beat them in tight windows. Dropping back into soft zone coverages would be playing into the veteran quarterback’s hands.
Make Aaron Rodgers panic with the blitz
While Glenn and Wilks differ in their man-zone tendencies, both coaches have been enamored with blitzing throughout their careers. You can bet the house that New York’s defense will be blitz-heavy in 2025.
It’s yet another area where the Jets should be able to exploit Rodgers.
Per FTN Fantasy, here is a comparison of Rodgers’ numbers when blitzed and not blitzed in 2024 (ranks out of 40 qualifiers):
- Aaron Rodgers vs. blitz: 6.1 yards per attempt (33rd), -0.06 EPA per dropback (30th), -13.1% DVOA (29th)
- Aaron Rodgers vs. no blitz: 6.9 yards per attempt (21st), 0.07 EPA per dropback (18th), -0.9% DVOA (22nd)
Rodgers’ EPA per dropback is inverted based on whether he is blitzed or not. His yards per attempt goes up nearly a full yard, and his DVOA rises from well below average to nearly league-average.
One would think that Rodgers would be successful against blitzes, as his experience and intelligence should allow him to expertly dissect them and find answers quickly. However, it’s not really the blitzing itself that caused Rodgers issues. His blitz numbers go hand-in-hand with the man coverage numbers.
Rodgers tended to struggle against blitzes because those are often used with man coverage behind them. If we break the numbers down a step further, we can see that Rodgers was noticeably worse against man blitzes than he was against zone blitzes.
- Aaron Rodgers vs. man blitzes: 6.1 yards per attempt (29th), -0.20 EPA per dropback (33rd), -18.6% DVOA (27th)
- Aaron Rodgers vs. zone blitzes: 6.0 yards per attempt (33rd), 0.11 EPA per dropback (14th), -10.2% DVOA (25th)
Rodgers’ ability to push the ball downfield did not change based on man or zone blitzes, but as shown by the large difference in his EPA per dropback, he was drastically more efficient against zone blitzes. It’s specifically the man blitzes that give him trouble.
Why did Rodgers have so much trouble with man coverage? It’s not just his diminished arm strength, accuracy, and mobility: it’s also the fact that he no longer trusts those aspects of his game.
On this play, Rodgers displays a lack of confidence in his ability to stand tall in the pocket against a blitz, so he rushes to the checkdown and misses a wide-open Garrett Wilson over the middle.
The common denominator here is the man coverage. If the Jets come after Rodgers with a hefty dosage of man coverage, bringing the blitz while doing so, they will give him plenty of trouble against a hostile road crowd full of bitter Jets fans.
Aaron Glenn has done this before
Glenn has already executed this game plan against Rodgers multiple times. Back in 2022, Glenn’s Lions swept Rodgers’ Packers, holding Green Bay to 25 points (12.5 per game) across the two matchups.
These were Rodgers’ numbers in two games against Glenn’s defense:
- 40 for 70 (57.1%)
- 496 yards (7.1 yards per attempt)
- 2 touchdowns
- 4 interceptions (a fifth was called back due to an unrelated penalty)
- 64.9 passer rating
- -0.18 EPA per dropback
- -29.7% DVOA
Those numbers make Zach Wilson look good.
How did Glenn pull it off? The exact game plan we’ve been talking about.
Across his two games against Detroit, Rodgers threw an absolutely mind-boggling 57.1% of his pass attempts against man coverage. That’s nearly 10% higher than the Lions’ league-leading rate in 2024.
When throwing against the Lions’ man coverage, Rodgers had a 52.5 passer rating, -0.26 EPA per dropback, and a -50.2% DVOA. He threw three interceptions on just 40 pass attempts and completed 52.5% of his pass attempts.
We’re still three months out from gameday in East Rutherford, but Glenn’s game plan for his Jets debut has already become quite obvious following Thursday’s news. Overload Pittsburgh with man coverage, and Rodgers will crumble.
Another thing to think about is how Arthur Smith is going to handle Rodgers. Will he give him carte blanche like the regime did here in New York ? Rodgers doesn’t want motion and wants to hold on to the ball until the bitter end before he makes his decision. Just look at this past season and the defensive playbook writes itself.