Heading into the 2025 NFL season, offensive tackle Olu Fashanu has a case as one of the New York Jets’ most important players.
The second-year pro will be tasked with locking down the Jets’ blindside. Ideally, this will be the case for the next decade.
Fashanu bounced around in his rookie year. He logged 159 snaps at right tackle and 37 at right guard before playing his final 336 at left tackle. Once he finally got to his natural position, Fashanu’s performance improved significantly.
His first two games could have gone better, but Fashanu was excellent following the bye. Over his final four games (Weeks 13-16), Fashanu didn’t allow a single sack over 212 pass-blocking snaps, yielding just seven total pressures. His pressure rate (4.58%) and pass-block efficiency (97.7) each ranked 10th-best among 26 left tackles with at least 150 snaps over that period, per Pro Football Focus.
While it was an impressive start, only the future matters now. What can fans realistically expect from Fashanu in Year 2?
To answer this question, I looked at the second-year leaps of four first-round offensive tackles from the last two drafts.
Second-year leaps from early first-round OTs
For this study, I looked at Charles Cross and Ikem Ekwonu from the 2022 draft, as well as Paris Johnson and Darnell Wright from the 2023 draft. I chose these players because they were drafted in the same range as Fashanu (picks 6-11) and possess similar physical profiles.
By analyzing their career arcs, we can get a better idea of what Fashanu’s growth in Year 2 should look like. Here is how each player performed in their first and second seasons.
| Paris Johnson | Darnell Wright | Charles Cross | Ikem Ekwonu | Average | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 1st Season | 2nd Season | 1st Season | 2nd Season | 1st Season | 2nd Season | 1st Season | 2nd Season | 1st Year | 2nd Year | Average Change |
| PFF Overall Grade | 60.1 | 80.8 | 62.4 | 79.3 | 63.7 | 67.6 | 65.3 | 67.4 | 62.9 | 73.8 | +17.3% |
| PFF Pass Blocking Grade | 64.2 | 78.1 | 61.4 | 65.4 | 63.9 | 69.7 | 67.5 | 62.3 | 64.3 | 71.4 | +11.0% |
| PFF Run Blocking Grade | 55.1 | 73.8 | 66.0 | 82.2 | 62.8 | 58.3 | 64.0 | 77.0 | 62.0 | 73.1 | +17.9% |
| Pressure Rate | 6.62% | 4.76% | 8.25% | 4.97% | 7.37% | 8.12% | 5.20% | 6.43% | 6.94% | 6.08% | -12.4% |
| Sack Rate | 1.26% | 0.83% | 1.13% | 0.99% | 1.08% | 1.16% | 1.16% | 1.61% | 1.16% | 1.18% | +2.1% |
| Pass Blocking Efficiency | 96.1 | 97.2 | 95.3 | 97.0 | 95.8 | 95.4 | 96.8 | 96 | 96.0 | 96.4 | +0.4% |
On average, the four players graded as lower-tier starters in Year 1 before improving to above-average starters in Year 2. Their overall PFF grades increased by 17.3%.
In their rookie years, they recorded an average overall PFF grade of 62.9. For perspective, this would have ranked 51st out of 67 qualified tackles in 2024. But in their second years, they improved to an average grade of 73.8, which would have been good enough for 25th.
Improvement occurred in both phases. In pass protection, they saw an 11% increase in their PFF pass-blocking grade and a 12.4% reduction to their pressure rate. Their PFF run-blocking grade increased by 17.9%.
If we used these trends to project Fashanu’s second season, what would his numbers look like?
Projecting Olu Fashanu’s second-year leap
For this projection, I analyzed Fashanu’s rookie-year production across his six games at left tackle (Weeks 10-16). Here are his statistics from this period and rankings among 67 offensive tackles over that span:
- Total snaps: 336
- PFF overall grade: 70.2 (33rd)
- PFF pass-blocking grade: 74.7 (28th)
- PFF run-blocking grade: 64.3 (37th)
- Pressures allowed: 12
- Pressure rate allowed: 4.25% (40th)
- Sacks allowed: 1
- Sack rate allowed: 0.47% (29th)
- Pass-blocking efficiency: 96.9 (T-37th)
As expected from his pre-draft profile, Fashanu was solid in pass protection, ranking in the top half of PFF’s pass-blocking grade. He also allowed just one sack over his six appearances at left tackle.
There is room for Fashanu to improve as a run blocker, but he was still middle-of-the-pack in this area, which is a promising starting point for a 22-year-old rookie. Fashanu was expected to struggle as a run blocker in his rookie year, so he is already ahead of schedule.
Overall, Fashanu was an approximately league-average starting left tackle in his rookie year, which is encouraging. So, what should we expect in his second season?
Fashanu is coming off a stronger starting point than any of the four first-rounders we analyzed above. Compared against those players, Fashanu’s rookie season ranked first in overall grade, pass-blocking grade, sack rate, and pass blocking efficiency. He was also second in run-blocking grade and pressure rate allowed.
This gives Fashanu an exciting projection for his second season. Using the average Year 2 changes from the other four tackles, here is what Fashanu’s 2025 numbers would look like, and where they would have ranked among 67 qualified tackles last season:
- PFF overall grade: +17.3% (70.2 to 82.3) – 11th
- PFF pass-blocking grade: +11.0% (74.7 to 82.9) – 11th
- PFF run-blocking grade: +17.9% (64.3 to 75.8) – 18th
- Pressure rate allowed: -12.4% (4.25% to 3.72%) – 14th
If Fashanu makes a similar leap as his four peers, he will emerge as one of the league’s better starting tackles in 2025.
It is not a given that Fashanu will make such a significant leap. While Paris Johnson and Darnell Wright took massive leaps, Charles Cross and Ikem Ekwonu arguably got worse. This is also only a small sample of the dozens of offensive tackles drafted in the last few years.
However, Fashanu’s impressive rookie season and physical tools inspire confidence that he can establish himself as one of the best players at his position.
His quarterback could be a roadblock, though.
Change at quarterback could affect Fashanu’s production
Justin Fields is uber-talented. However, he’s also one of the most sack-prone quarterbacks in the NFL.
Since being drafted, Fields has been sacked 151 times, fourth-most in the league. This is despite him having fewer dropbacks and arguably better escapability than most quarterbacks. His career sack rate is 11.9%, the worst among 38 qualified quarterbacks since 2021.
In his rookie year, Fashanu benefited from Aaron Rodgers’ quick release time. Over six games with Fashanu at left tackle, Rodgers had a time to throw of 2.81 seconds, which was actually longer than usual for him (he was at 2.56 in all other games).
Meanwhile, Fields has a career average time to throw of 3.29 seconds. He improved to 3.08 with the Steelers in 2024, but this was still the third-longest in the NFL.
Fashanu’s game should improve with a year of experience, but his stats could suffer from Fields’ tendency to hold the ball. He will be blamed for sacks and pressures on plays where most other quarterbacks would have gotten the ball out earlier. This needs to be kept in mind when analyzing his stats, and the same goes for the entire Jets offensive line.
Heading into 2025, Fashanu is critical to the Jets’ success. His projected second-year leap, along with the addition of Armand Membou, can give the Jets a top-10 offensive line in 2025. Considering all five starters are 27 or younger, this can be the case for years to come.