You know the deal with NFL training camp: It’s meaningless.
That is, unless your favorite player performs well. In that case, it is time to get him measured for a gold jacket.
Justin Fields’ woes bring out the hot takes
As per usual, fans and media members are overreacting to the news out of New York Jets training camp. Nuance is thrown to the wayside in favor of hot takes that serve agendas.
If you are pro-Justin Fields, his struggles in training camp are a nothing-burger. Of course he doesn’t look great; he’s getting acclimated to a new scheme, in a new city, with new teammates. He’ll be fine!
Practice is for working out the kinks, anyway. The Jets are probably asking him to hone in on the things he struggles with. We also haven’t gotten to see him fully unleash his rushing ability in full contact.
If you are anti-Justin Fields, his struggles prove what we knew all along: He’s a bad quarterback who couldn’t hit the ocean from the end of a pier. The Jets are doomed, and they should probably begin weighing their options with the first overall pick.
The reality lies somewhere in the middle.
It is true that a practice environment is not ideal for showcasing the peak version of Fields. His best attribute, his athleticism, is muted in an environment where contact is limited.
It is also true that this is ultimately practice. The Jets’ offense is not trying to “win.” The goal is not to perform well; it is to prepare themselves for the regular season. This means they spend their time working on things that need to be worked on, not spamming their best plays to produce highlights in light-contact team drills against the Jets’ defense.
READ MORE: Evaluating Justin Fields at practice is tricky (Sabo)At the same time, it would be ignorant to write off Fields’ struggles as “meaningless.” It is not ideal that he continues to struggle with many of the same issues that held him back in his first four NFL seasons: holding the ball too long, being indecisive, misdiagnosing the defense, and overthrowing passes, among others.
Training camp struggles can be written off if the player in question has a track record of success. Fields doesn’t have that. He has the fifth-worst passer rating (83.9) among the 38 quarterbacks with at least 700 pass attempts since 2021. For that reason, it is impossible to shrug off his woes and claim things will be just fine.
Ultimately, this discussion is too complex to be evaluated in 280-character tweets: a limit that encourages the hot-take culture that overshadows training camp discourse. Without enough words to flesh out the details of the situation, fans and media members on social media resort to picking one side.
But how can we choose one side when analyzing practice is such a murky exercise? This is as gray as it gets when it comes to sports. Every positive or negative event will come with a million caveats that diminish its predictive value. That is why we must always weigh both sides when discussing training camp.
The Jets would undoubtedly prefer to see Fields thriving right now, even if it wouldn’t guarantee that he would translate his success to the regular season. Aaron Glenn wouldn’t be telling the truth if he claimed that he is not at least slightly concerned about Fields’ performance. Simultaneously, though, the fact that he is struggling does not eliminate his chances of looking like a different player once we get to the real thing.
But Fields is a unique case
The thing is, though, the Jets are counting on Fields to tap into a level of play that he has yet to display in his NFL career. As a result, he has higher expectations in camp than most quarterbacks.
The Fields we have seen through four NFL seasons is not close to a franchise quarterback. New York hitched its wagon to Fields because of who he could be, not who he is. If the Jets’ main goal were to give themselves the best chance of at least competent quarterback play, they would have held an open competition, which Tyrod Taylor would be leading by a country mile.
Fields is the Jets’ penciled-in QB1 because of his ceiling. However, that hypothetical ceiling is a long way from the actual ceiling he has reached in his career to date.
That’s why it is particularly important that Fields shows palpable improvement on the practice field compared to what we’ve become accustomed to seeing from him. If he doesn’t look any different than the Fields of the past, it is difficult to cultivate optimism that he will suddenly reach new heights once he takes the big stage.
The fact that Fields has not only failed to look significantly better, but struggled to surpass even his usual form, has to mean something, right?
This leads us to the question: Is there a history of training camp performance carrying predictive value for quarterbacks?
For many quarterbacks, training camp is, for all intents and purposes, meaningless. If an established starter struggles, it probably doesn’t mean anything; he has a track record to fall back on. If a rookie quarterback struggles, it is ordinary and fully expected.
The most interesting quarterbacks to watch in camp are the ones who people expect to make a leap – the ones at a point in their development arc where they should be making substantial progress. Fields is one of those quarterbacks. At Year 5 of his career and in a new environment tailored to his strengths, the hope is that Fields looks like a different quarterback than ever before.
That hasn’t been the case so far. But is training camp enough for us to definitively say that he won’t achieve that goal in live-game action?
We’ll have to look at comparable quarterbacks in recent history to answer that question.
Let’s look back at recent quarterbacks who enjoyed breakouts similar to the one Fields is pursuing, and see if those quarterbacks showed any signs of their impending breakouts during training camp.
Does training camp mean more than we think?
Over the last three seasons, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold have enjoyed surprising late-career breakouts. They were each on at least their third team, past their fourth season, and had the pedigree of a top-40 draft pick – all boxes checked by Fields.
Did training camp show signs that Smith, Mayfield, and Darnold were about to explode? Or did they have similar struggles that were rendered meaningless in the regular season?
Geno Smith (2022 Seattle Seahawks)
In March 2022, the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to Denver and received former second-round pick Drew Lock as part of the deal.
Instead of penciling Lock in as the starter, Seattle pitted him in a competition against the 32-year-old Smith, who had spent the last two seasons as Wilson’s backup.
Smith already had some momentum going into the competition. He started three games for Seattle in 2021 and performed very well, posting a 108.4 passer rating while accumulating five total touchdowns and one turnover.
As a result, Smith began the competition in the driver’s seat. He took the Seahawks’ first-team reps while Lock worked with the second team.
However, as Smith competed against Lock in camp, the latter began to build momentum.
In a mock game at Lumen Field on August 6, 2022, Lock significantly outplayed Smith, according to this article.
“The biggest story of the day was that Seattle’s quarterback competition finally showed some signs of life. Geno Smith has been leading the battle throughout the offseason but yesterday Drew Lock was the clear winner.
“Lock began the game by completing his first 12 passes – a good omen if there ever was one. He finished 19/27 with one touchdown and no turnovers. Meanwhile, Geno Smith went 11/20 and was lucky to avoid an interception on an underthrow to Marquise Goodwin on third and long.”
This occurred despite Lock working with the second-team offense against Seattle’s first-team defense.
It was an important development at the time, as Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll had said going into the mock game that it would be “a really big deal” for the quarterback competition. In the days leading up to it, Smith and Lock began to rotate reps with the first team, although Smith still had the edge in first-team reps.
Smith was under pressure at this point. Fans were clamoring for Lock.
Then, the preseason arrived. Both quarterbacks received plenty of work, with Smith logging 45 dropbacks across all three games while Lock played 42 dropbacks over two games (missing one due to COVID-19).
It was here that Smith created separation. The box score stats were similar on the surface: Smith went 23 of 39 for 256 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while Lock went 24 of 39 for 273 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. However, Smith was clearly the better quarterback.
Smith looked extremely sharp through the eye test, registering a 90.4 overall grade at Pro Football Focus. He suffered from a whopping seven drops, while he recorded five big-time throws to zero turnover-worthy throws.
Lock was fine, but nowhere near as impressive, recording a 70.5 overall grade for his play. He only had two big-time throws to Smith’s five, along with two turnover-worthy throws to Smith’s none.
After the preseason, Carroll named Smith the starter.
Smith proceeded to win Comeback Player of the Year and make the first of two consecutive Pro Bowl appearances. From 2022-24, he had a 95.5 passer rating, 14th-best among quarterbacks with at least 700 pass attempts. Formerly an afterthought, Smith had developed into a quality starter.
Nobody could have seen that coming through August 6, 2022. Smith had been rocky on the practice field. It seemed as if Lock was outplaying him and gaining serious ground in the competition.
But once Smith took the field in the preseason, the Seahawks could see the separation between their two quarterbacks.
It shows that Fields can ease concerns about his training camp woes if he stands out in the preseason.
Baker Mayfield (2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
A former first-round pick, Baker Mayfield was cast aside by the Cleveland Browns in 2022 after four roller-coaster seasons. He spent the 2022 season with the Panthers and Rams, struggling with both teams. Mayfield finished the year ranked fourth-worst among quarterbacks in passer rating (79.0).
Mayfield’s poor production led him to sign a measly one-year, $4 million deal with the Buccaneers in 2023. The Oklahoma product was slated to compete against Kyle Trask and John Wolford for the right to fill Tom Brady’s shoes.
At the time, Mayfield was 28 years old and entering his sixth NFL season. He had 69 career starts under his belt, 25 more than Fields currently has.
If we rewind the clock to the first week of August 2023, things were not looking pretty for Mayfield. According to Buccaneers beat reporter Greg Auman, Mayfield had thrown seven interceptions in nine practices.
Meanwhile, Trask, the Buccaneers’ 2021 second-round pick, was gaining steam.
On August 2, Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales replied, “absolutely” when asked if the gap between Mayfield and Trask had tightened.
Like Geno Smith, though, Mayfield used the preseason to set himself apart.
Mayfield had two brief but lights-out performances. He completed 14 of his 15 passes for 106 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, while avoiding any sacks. PFF credited him with a 90.9 overall grade, two big-time throws, and no turnover-worthy throws.
Trask struggled in the first preseason game, going 6 of 10 for 99 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception while taking three sacks. He earned a subpar 57.8 grade at PFF, a far cry from Mayfield’s 90.4 grade in the opener.
After the opener, Mayfield sat out the Bucs’ second preseason game, while Trask took most of the reps. Tampa Bay named Mayfield the starter before the final preseason game.
Two years, 69 touchdown passes, and two division titles later, Mayfield is locked up on a three-year, $100 million contract.
And on August 6, 2023, people wanted him benched for Kyle Trask.
Sam Darnold (2024 Minnesota Vikings)
Many people expected Sam Darnold to blossom after leaving the shackles of Adam Gase and the Jets. That didn’t happen.
Across two years in Carolina, Darnold had an even lower passer rating (77.3) than he did with the Jets (78.6).
Darnold settled in as the 49ers’ backup in 2023, making just one start in a meaningless season finale.
After allowing Kirk Cousins to walk in 2024, the Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract as their placeholder quarterback entering the draft. Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round.
While the Vikings did not definitively name a starting quarterback going into training camp, Darnold clearly had the edge. It was apparent that Minnesota was ready to be patient with McCarthy, and that head coach Kevin O’Connell was comfortable with Darnold as the stopgap.
This is what O’Connell had to say about the two quarterbacks on July 30, 2024.
“I’m always going to do whatever I think is best for the team to give us the best chance to win, while also understanding that the journey for a young quarterback in this league — and I’m really talking about both Sam and J.J. McCarthy — is really defined in a lot of ways by things outside of their control,” O’Connell said on NFL Network.
“I think we set up a plan to give both those guys a ton of reps throughout training camp. I did feel like Sam, through his work in the spring and where he’s at in his career, earned the right to have the bulk of the first-team reps early on, but we’ve got a plan to get J.J. some reps as well.”
Darnold backed up O’Connell’s faith with a red-hot start to camp. The reviews around Darnold were glowing at this point one year ago.
McCarthy also received praise for his play in camp, which could be a testament to O’Connell’s system (and the joys of throwing the ball to a Justin Jefferson-Jordan Addison duo), but Darnold did everything he could to hang onto his starting spot.
This August 3 article from Will Ragatz, summarizing the Vikings’ recent practice, feels like foreshadowing of what was to come in the 2024 regular season.
“The growing chemistry between Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson was on full display on Saturday afternoon. The Vikings’ QB1 and WR1 were on fire all practice, connecting time and time again.
“The highlight of the day was an incredible leaping catch from Jefferson along the right sideline. Theo Jackson was right there in coverage, but Darnold put the ball in a perfect spot where only his receiver could get it. As he so often does, Jefferson made a very difficult catch look rather simple. Later on, Darnold rifled a ball over the middle of the field for a touchdown to No. 18, hitting him in stride on a post route. Those were two of at least six connections between Darnold and Jefferson during 11-on-11 action over the course of this practice.
“Both of the Vikings’ top two quarterbacks had strong days on Saturday. Darnold was cooking with Jefferson, had a couple long connections with Addison and Johnny Mundt, and ended his day by escaping the pocket and finding Aaron Jones for a touchdown on a red zone rep. J.J. McCarthy had plenty of impressive moments in his own right, including a fun stretch of action with the first-team offense.”
Darnold started the Vikings’ preseason opener and looked solid over a short appearance. On eight dropbacks, he completed 4 of 8 passes for 59 yards, no scores, and no picks, with no sacks. One of his passes was dropped. He earned a 76.2 overall grade from PFF. It was his only appearance of the preseason.
McCarthy also impressed in relief of Darnold, earning an 81.6 grade across 19 dropbacks. He completed 11 of 17 passes for 188 yards, two scores, and one pick, all without being sacked.
Unfortunately, any drama regarding the quarterback competition ended in tragic fashion, as McCarthy tore his meniscus in the Vikings’ preseason opener.
Darnold went on to have his long-awaited breakout season, hurling 35 touchdowns and racking up a 102.5 passer rating. He made the Pro Bowl and led the Vikings to 14 wins.
Unlike Smith and Mayfield, Darnold already seemed to look like an improved player before the preseason arrived. There was evidence that a breakout could be coming, although nobody outside the Vikings’ building could have expected what would come.
Takeaways?
Smith and Mayfield provide plenty of hope for Fields. At this exact point of their respective training camps, they were perceived to be struggling, with many people believing their backups were outplaying them. And, based on what we know now, those backups are much worse quarterbacks than Tyrod Taylor.
The common denominator is that both players silenced their doubters in the preseason. Smith and Mayfield didn’t just look fine in the preseason; they starred, leaving no doubt in their coaches’ minds that they deserved to start.
Fields must do the same.
It remains to be seen what Glenn’s plans are for the preseason. Most likely, Fields will take the field at some point. No matter how small his sample is, he must dominate those opportunities. Mayfield played a very short time in the 2023 preseason, but he was nearly perfect on those reps, sending a clear message that he was ready to thrive in live-game action.
Darnold is an interesting case. His training camp stardom actually did turn out to be a sign of things to come. It goes to show that, when evaluating a player who is at the stage of his career where he is expected to take a “leap,” it could be legitimately meaningful to see that he shows up to camp looking like a much different player than he was in the past.
Like all three of these quarterbacks, Fields needs to reach a brand-new level of play to even scratch the surface of becoming a long-term NFL starter, let alone be a superstar. He has been a bottom-tier starter in the league, just like Smith, Mayfield, and Darnold were in their recent seasons before breaking out.
Training camp practices and preseason games might not be a one-for-one replication of what is to come in the regular season, but they still display some of the core elements of the quarterback position. At some point, Fields needs to show that he has made significant strides as a player if fans are to believe that he will climb to new heights in the regular season.
But as Smith and Mayfield showed, August 6 is too early to claim there is no shot that Fields will break out. With that said, Smith and Mayfield eventually provided legitimate signs of hope – in their cases, they used the preseason to pull it off. After two-plus weeks of shaky practices, the preseason is Fields’ best bet, too.
If Fields can dominate in the preseason (again, he needs to be great, not “fine”), then fans can rest assured knowing that his chances of breaking out are still alive (albeit nowhere close to guaranteed).
But if Fields continues to look shaky in camp and fails to stand out in the preseason, it will be hard to scrape together any real reason to be hopeful of an upcoming successful season – outside of blind optimism.
