As the New York Jets make their final decisions on roster cutdown day, they must take everything into consideration.
Whether it’s preseason stats, career stats, training camp film, preseason film, locker room demeanor, work ethic, classroom proficiency, salary cap ramifications, or a million other factors, the vast number of variables at play makes Tuesday one of the most stressful days of the year for NFL coaches and general managers.
Today, we are going to discuss just one of those many factors: preseason stats.
READ MORE: Robby Sabo's 53-man roster predictionThe value of preseason stats is a subject of immense debate.
On one hand, they can be viewed as completely meaningless. They are recorded in a vanilla schematic environment against lackluster competition; not to mention, in a small sample.
On the other hand, it is the only opportunity to evaluate roster-bubble players in a live-game environment before the regular season. So, it has to carry some value, right? For all the preseason’s warts, it is much closer to regular season football than the average training camp practice.
The answer lies somewhere in the middle.
Using a player’s preseason stats to project how they might play in the regular season is a foolish proposition. However, we can use them as a tool for understanding which players are doing the most to separate themselves in their respective roster battles.
The key, though, is to look deeper than generic box-score stats. Even when evaluating regular season football over a large sample, box-score stats can tell lies. Context is always necessary when evaluating football from a statistical perspective, which only becomes more imperative as the sample size shrinks.
Add in the preseason’s schematic simplicity and measly competition, and the box-score stats become a total nothing-burger.
But if the Jets focus on some advanced metrics, they can identify trends that will help them make the best decisions on cutdown day.
Here are three stats for New York to keep in mind as Tuesday approaches.
Jamaal Pritchett’s elusiveness
Throughout all three preseason games, it felt as if Jamaal Pritchett was making somebody miss every time he touched the ball. The numbers back it up.
According to Pro Football Focus, Pritchett forced six missed tackles as a receiver, tying him with New England’s Efton Chism III for the most in the NFL among wide receivers. That was at least twice as many as every other wide receiver in the league, save for one (Cleveland’s Gage Larvadain had four).
It’s nothing new for Pritchett, who ranked third among FBS wide receivers with 29 missed tackles forced in the 2024 season. He was tied with Carolina Panthers first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan.
But for the Jets (and other NFL teams chomping at the bit to potentially scoop him up), it is eye-opening to see Pritchett translate that success to the NFL level.
Pritchett played against Sun Belt competition at South Alabama. According to Sports Reference’s Defensive Simple Rating System, the Sun Belt did not have any of the nation’s top 50 defenses in 2024. The conference’s average defensive ranking was 90th out of 134 schools.
It is easy to write off the production of a 5-foot-8, 175-pound wideout who racked up big numbers against lowly Sun Belt defenses. Now, though, Pritchett has provided evidence that he may not have been a small-school fluke. It doesn’t guarantee he will be a valuable NFL contributor, but it proves he is capable.
Most importantly, regarding the Jets’ cutdown decisions, Pritchett ran laps around his teammates in this department. Pritchett’s six missed tackles forced were twice as many as the rest of New York’s wide receivers combined. No other Jets wideout forced more than a single missed tackle.
Pritchett already made a strong case for the roster with his prowess as a punt returner. Add in the high-level elusiveness he displayed on offense – especially in comparison to his teammates – and the Jets will have a hard time coming up with a good reason to cut him.
Brandon Smith and Quentin Skinner’s hands
The Jets are poised to roster multiple wide receivers with considerable drop concerns. Allen Lazard has been a drop machine in New York, while fourth-round rookie Arian Smith must prove he can overcome the drop woes that plagued him in college.
For that reason, it would be appealing for the Jets to solidify the back end of their wide receiver depth chart with players known for their strong hands.
They’ve got a couple of great options in Brandon Smith and Quentin Skinner.
Across the Jets’ three preseason games, Smith and Skinner combined for zero drops on 18 receptions. They also secured three of four contested targets. Overall, 18 of the 23 passes (78.3%) thrown to Smith and Skinner were completed.
This was not a fluke for Smith, who has built a reliable pass-catching track record in New York over the past two preseasons. In six preseason games with the Jets, Smith caught 15 of 17 targets (88.2% catch rate) for 233 yards. He had zero drops and secured five of six contested targets (83.3% contested catch rate).
An undrafted rookie, Skinner was highly impressive in all three preseason games. Posting a 20+ yard catch in each game, Skinner finished the preseason with eight catches on 11 targets (72.7% catch rate) for 114 yards and a touchdown, recording zero drops and catching both of his contested targets.
This is a continuation of Skinner’s college success in this department. In his career at Kansas, Skinner was charged with only three drops against 80 receptions (3.6% drop rate). Like Pritchett, it is encouraging to see him translate his college strengths to the NFL level, even if only in a brief sample.
The two players offer very different body types and are at different stages of their careers.
Smith is a big-bodied possession receiver at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds. A 2021 UDFA out of Iowa, Smith is 26 years old and still seeking to make his first opening-day roster after coming up short in his first four seasons.
Skinner is a tall and lanky vertical threat at 6-foot-5 and 195 pounds. He is 23 years old after playing five seasons at Kansas.
New York might have a hard time squeezing both players on the roster. But when two players at one of your thinnest positions combine for zero drops on 18 receptions for 227 yards, it would be wise to keep at least one of them.
Lack of edge pressure
After entering the summer looking thin at wide receiver, the Jets hoped to see some surprise standouts emerge at the back end of the unit. That is precisely what happened.
The same did not transpire at edge rusher.
New York would have benefited immensely if a surprising edge rusher broke out in the preseason. Instead, the entire unit was relatively quiet throughout all three games. The Jets’ edge rushers combined for a pass-rush win rate of 9.7%, which ranked 24th among NFL edge units.
Like wide receiver, the Jets appear razor-thin on the edge. Will McDonald is poised for a big year, but that is all the Jets can count on. While they have a second quality starter in Jermaine Johnson, his capabilities are a mystery coming off an Achilles tear.
Beyond McDonald and Johnson, the Jets might not have a player who would make more than half of the other 31 NFL rosters.
The unit is so thin that Micheal Clemons has elevated from a popular cut candidate to the clear-cut EDGE3.
Clemons is an easy cut candidate due to the salary cap benefits (the Jets can save $3.4 million of his $3.6 million cap hit by cutting him), his poor career performance (more penalties than sacks), and his inability to prove that he has matured (penalized for fighting in the preseason opener). Yet, he will probably make the team by default because the team has nothing else. He has at least shown flashes of positive play.
Fifth-round rookie Tyler Baron seems like a lock based on his draft status, but he did not show anything in the preseason (2.6% pass-rush win rate). Other than Clemons and Baron, it is difficult to argue that any other edge rusher on the team should be rostered.
WATCH: Joe Blewett's All-22 film review of Tyler BaronThe only reasonable candidate is Eric Watts, who offers size and run-stuffing ability, but he looked undisciplined in the preseason (both in terms of a poor penalty and a lack of gap integrity against the run). Rashad Weaver was on track for a roster spot until he was placed on season-ending injured reserve.
With the edge unit’s poor collective performance in the preseason, it should be clear to the Jets that they must explore outside help at this position. Unlike some other positions, this unit cannot be skimped on. Pass-rush production off the edge is far too important for teams to get by without.
New York only has one edge rusher that can be trusted (McDonald). Considering the uncertainty around Johnson, depth is imperative for them at this position. Yet, nobody emerged in camp or the preseason to convince New York that its edge depth is better than it looks on paper.
The Jets must be honest with themselves and admit that this unit is well below competency. Whether through the waiver wire, a trade, or a free agent pickup (Jadeveon Clowney and Za’Darius Smith are still available), the Jets must upgrade their edge unit if they are serious about competing for a playoff spot in 2025.