In the blink of an eye, 244 days have passed since the New York Jets last played a professional football game that counts. After a treacherous voyage through the offseason, mired in endless deliberation, analysis, and projection, we can finally see the light from ashore.
Before we pull into the docks of another Jets season, we need to drop some weight from the ship. Let’s toss overboard every excess thought that lingers in our minds before we anchor down and embark on the long hike ahead.
Here are 50 random thoughts I have about the Jets entering the 2025 season, ranging from critical questions to general observations.
1. Can Justin Fields stave off turnover regression?
Justin Fields only had one interception and one lost fumble in six starts last season, but he had six turnover-worthy throws and six fumbles. Can he sustain his low turnover total, or will he regress to the mean?
In all likelihood, Fields will not be lucky enough to get through a full season with just 16.7% of his turnover-worthy throws and fumbles converted to turnovers. Fields must cut down on the reckless plays to make himself luck-proof in the turnover department.
2. What will the Breece Hall/Braelon Allen/Isaiah Davis split look like?
The Jets have hinted at a committee backfield, but until we see the Jets play a game, we can only guess what that split will look like. I am curious to see how the Jets intend to split the snaps, carries, and overall touches between their three running backs.
My hunch is that Allen will slightly out-carry Hall, while Hall takes nearly all of the receiving chances out of the backfield. Davis will be the secondary third-down option with a smattering of carries in the run game.
3. This run defense could be better than expected
Expectations for the Jets’ defense are not as sky-high as they were entering the last two seasons, following two straight years as an elite unit (2022-23). A big part of that has been due to their projected issues against the run.
But after the trades for Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs, this run defense suddenly looks much more formidable. Phillips’ arrival is particularly noteworthy; since 2021, he has the third-most run-game tackles that held the rusher to ≤2 yds & no first down. It has not gotten the attention as such, but his arrival is a big deal. Suddenly, the Jets’ run defense could be solid.
If the secondary and pass rush hit their ceilings, there isn’t anything stopping the Jets from getting back to where they were defensively just two years ago. Most of the key players from that unit are still here.
4. How great can Will McDonald be?
After breaking out to the tune of 10.5 sacks in 2024, it feels like Will McDonald still has more in the tank. With added strength and another year of experience, he has legitimate 15-plus-sack upside.
5. The run-blocking drop-off at center is concerning
The main consequence of losing Alijah Vera-Tucker is the ensuing effect on the inside run game. Josh Myers can hold his own as a pass blocker, but his run blocking is poor. The Jets want to be a run-first team, so it will hurt to swap out an elite run blocker at right guard for a weak run blocker at center.
How will the coaches work around this? Running up the middle on duo and inside zone just got a whole lot tougher.
6. Aaron Glenn’s aggressiveness will pay dividends
Aaron Glenn spoke about his fourth-down aggressiveness on Friday, explaining that he has learned the value of analytics-influenced decision-making and plans to be aggressive, yet calculated. This would be immensely beneficial for the Jets, who have never been ahead of the curve in analytics-based decision-making since teams began catching on to the value of aggressive fourth-down calls over a decade ago.
7. Will Xavier Gipson prove the coaches right?
The Jets’ decision to roll with Xavier Gipson as a punt returner was puzzling. Glenn cited Gipson’s sure-handedness in camp, but that shouldn’t override a 34-game sample in the regular season that saw Gipson fumble nine times, including five muffed punts. If Gipson makes an early mistake, it could be Jamaal Pritchett time sooner than later.
8. How much will the Jets tap into Justin Fields’ deep passing?
Justin Fields has struggled in most passing-related areas as an NFL quarterback. One area where he has excelled? Deep passing.
Pittsburgh clipped his wings in 2024 regarding downfield aggressiveness, but in his last full season as a starter in 2023, Fields had the 11th-most deep completions (23) despite missing four games, including the eighth-most deep touchdown passes (8).
While Fields threw deep very frequently in 2023 (14.1% of his pass attempts were deep, ranking fourth-highest), he was still highly efficient with those attempts, as his 53.8% adjusted completion percentage on deep passes ranked seventh-best out of 38 qualifiers.
The Jets have somewhat of a catch-22 with Fields. They want to rein him in and have him play safe, game-managing football to cut down his turnover-proneness and facilitate their run-first game plan, but Fields is at his best as a deep passer, whereas his short-to-intermediate passing is below average. Will they tap into Fields’ deep potential by letting him throw bombs at a high clip? Or will the deep ball only be an occasional changeup?
9. Can Garrett Wilson make the individual improvements that are necessary?
Garrett Wilson’s career statistical production has been primarily held back by poor quarterbacking, but there are still some areas he can improve as an individual. In particular, I’d like to see him be more efficient with the ball in his hands (get vertical instead of dancing around), attack the ball more aggressively to improve his contested catch rate, and run more precise routes (less freelancing).
This might sound like nitpicking, but Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand echoed this sentiment in July.
“Garrett’s a feel player at times, and (Amon-Ra) St. Brown, he had the feel, but he was a very specific—no wasted motion—type of player,” Engstrand said when asked about the differences between Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. “Garrett, at times, will have a little bit of, I don’t know, call it, ‘Sauce,’ to the routes at times. We try to keep that under control where it’s beneficial to us.”
It’s a respectful way of saying Wilson needs to be more detail-oriented to start maximizing his world-class talent. If he does, he will start putting up dominant numbers on a weekly basis regardless of who is throwing him the ball.
10. Can the Jets get by without Jermaine Johnson returning to peak form?
The 2023 version of Jermaine Johnson was one of the most well-rounded edge rushers in the NFL. He was one of only four players at the position with 50+ pressures, 20+ run stops, and a sub-10% missed tackle rate, joining Khalil Mack, Alex Highsmith, and Danielle Hunter.
There are many outcomes Johnson could yield in 2025. He could fall short of his 2023 season, replicate it, or continue his upward trajectory and build on it.
Realistically, the Jets would love for Johnson to even come close to his 2023 production, but with their extreme lack of depth on the edge, they probably need him to replicate it if they plan on fielding an above-average defense. It’s a high and arguably unfair bar, although Johnson is confident he can clear it, stating that he was beating personal bests in athletic testing throughout the summer.
11. How long until Arian Smith is the WR2?
The Jets might have the weakest WR2 in the NFL in Josh Reynolds, which is a critical dent in their offensive ceiling. However, their fourth-round rookie, Arian Smith, offers a high ceiling as an all-around wideout. How long will it be until the Jets elevate Smith over the veteran Reynolds in search of a higher offensive ceiling?
12. Brandon Stephens is the Jets’ biggest X-factor on defense
An important part of the Jets’ defensive success in recent years was the fact that they had three strong corners in their starting lineup. Michael Carter II held down the slot, Sauce Gardner locked down the left side of the field, and D.J. Reed manned the right.
Reed is out, and his replacement is Brandon Stephens, whose floor is much lower than the one Reed provided over the last three years. Stephens allowed the second-most yards among cornerbacks last season (806), while Reed allowed under 500 yards in each of his three seasons with the Jets.
However, Stephens was one of the best corners at forcing tight-window throws last year. He can stick to receivers as well as anyone, but his poor ball skills have allowed teams to pick on him and earn positive results despite the quality coverage. If Stephens can improve his ball skills, though, he has already laid the foundation of a great NFL corner.
Stephens could either be an immense downgrade compared to Reed or an upgrade who makes the Jets’ cornerback unit even better than it already was.
13. Could Jets defend home-field behind improved run game?
The Jets struggled at MetLife Stadium in 2024, posting a measly 3-5 record. A big part of their putrid home cooking was the absence of a rushing attack. Not only did they rank 25th in rushing yards per game at home (98.9), but they scored a league-worst two rushing touchdowns in their own building.
The run game is supposed to benefit from home-field advantage. Without a noisy crowd disrupting the offensive line’s communication, they should be able to efficiently set up their blocking schemes and get a step ahead of the defense. The Jets could not do that in the Meadowlands last year. But with their newfound run-first mentality, that could change, allowing them to do a better job of maximizing their home crowd.
14. Need more takeaways to win on the road
New York also struggled on the road last season, going 2-7, with the two wins coming over the teams that made the first two picks of the 2025 draft.
Road blues have been at the crux of the Jets’ playoff drought. They have not posted a winning record on the road since they went 6-2 in 2010, which happens to be the last season they made the playoffs. Over the last 14 seasons, the Jets are an abysmal 32-82 (.281) on the road, better than only Jacksonville and Cleveland.
The Jets’ key to improving on the road is figuring out how to generate more takeaways. New York is tied for the second-fewest road takeaways since 2011, forcing just 1.12 per game. This is a critical flaw; over the same span, there is a 0.458 correlation around the NFL between road winning percentage and road takeaways, which suggests a fairly strong correlation.
New York forced just six turnovers on the road last season, a measly 0.67 per game. Meanwhile, Aaron Glenn’s Lions tied for fourth-best with 1.75 takeaways per game on the road (14 in eight games), and they went 8-0. Perhaps Glenn and Steve Wilks’ blitz-heavy defensive approach can help the Jets get the takeaways they need to tilt road games in their favor.
15. Will Joe Tippmann take a leap at right guard?
I don’t expect Joe Tippmann to match Alijah Vera-Tucker’s prowess at right guard, but Tippmann projects as a better guard than center.
16. Austin McNamara is the GOAT
Austin McNamara put on a flawless preseason display in which he displayed every trait you could want in a punter. I am fascinated to see how good of a player he will be in the regular season. One would think that preseason punting translates better to the regular season than preseason performance in most other facets of the game.
17. Will we see every uniform in the Jets’ closet?
The NFL is allowing teams to wear alternate uniforms in up to four games this season, up from three. However, teams can still only use three helmet shells.
The Jets have three alternate uniforms. They worked around the helmet rule by using the same shell for their Rivalry Edition uniform as their all-black alternate uniform, simply swapping out the decals.
This means the Jets could use all three of their alternates this year: the Rivalry Edition, the all-black, and the “fauxback” they debuted in Week 6 of last season. I sure do hope we get to see all three of them. The Rivalry and all-black sets are locks, but the fauxbacks deserve another chance to shine.
18. We’re already talking about uniforms and we still have 32 more to go?
Indeed, we are. Yet, we forge onward.
19. What is Allen Lazard’s role in the offense?
Based on the Jets’ depth chart, Allen Lazard projects as the team’s starting slot receiver in 11 personnel.
It is a solid choice for the Jets’ run game. Lazard’s sizable frame makes him an appealing option as a blocker in the slot. We saw him throw a key block to create a big hole for Braelon Allen in the preseason.
How is Lazard going to help in the pass game, though? In seven NFL seasons, Lazard has caught an abysmal 53.2% of his targets from non-Aaron Rodgers passers, generating a measly 398 yards.
20. How long is Justin Fields’ leash?
While I don’t think the Jets are in a hurry to bench Justin Fields, I don’t think they are willing to patiently ride out the whole season if things get out of hand. The Jets want to win as many games as possible to make a statement in the first year of a new regime, and if Fields isn’t doing his part to facilitate wins, I believe they will prioritize winning over Fields’ development.
21. The Jets should match up well against skill and finesse-based teams
Teams that can go toe-to-toe with New York in the trenches, such as this Sunday’s opponent, could be tough matchups for the Jets. If a team can match the Jets’ physicality, the odds are strong that New York will not be able to overcome it by winning the skill and finesse battle in open space.
New York is built to win games by outmuscling teams. That is why they could match up surprisingly well against talented teams whose excellence is predicated upon their skill and finesse rather than their physicality.
This points us to two teams that New York may have a surprisingly good chance of upsetting: Buffalo and Cincinnati.
Buffalo’s defense ranked 19th in yards per rush attempt allowed last season. If they do not improve on that, the Jets can control the flow of the game when the Bills come to New Jersey in Week 2, setting the tone for a gritty win like the ones they pulled off in Buffalo’s 2022 and 2023 trips to MetLife.
Cincinnati only allowed 0.1 fewer yards per rush attempt than Buffalo last season, and on the other side of the ball, their still-questionable offensive line could be susceptible against the Jets’ duo of Will McDonald and Quinnen Williams. New York has the corners to match the Bengals’ explosive wideouts in the downfield passing game, so if Sauce Gardner and company can hold their own, the Jets can take over the game in the trenches.
22. Teams with strong lines can outlast the Jets
Conversely, the Jets may struggle more than expected against teams who can match them at the line of scrimmage.
Teams like Carolina, Cleveland, and Atlanta stand out as opponents who might give the Jets more trouble than fans expect. Carolina and Atlanta have strong offensive lines. The same could be true for Cleveland if its veterans stay healthy. On the other side, Myles Garrett is a mismatch against any offensive line, especially against a quarterback like Justin Fields who tends to hold the ball too long.
If you can beat the Jets in the rushing, ball security, and short-yardage departments, there is a good chance you will outlast them and win the game, as the Jets do not have enough aerial explosiveness to seize control of a game without thriving in those aforementioned areas.
23. How will the Jets’ strength of schedule shake out?
The Jets’ 2025 schedule features the AFC North, NFC South, and placement-based games against the Jaguars, Broncos, and Cowboys.
The AFC North is typically one of the toughest divisions, while the opposite is true for the NFC South. New York drew a trio of third-place opponents, although Jacksonville and Denver project to improve this year. Dallas, though, may struggle after the loss of Micah Parsons.
24. How will Wilks and Glenn’s philosophies merge?
In their careers, Steve Wilks and Aaron Glenn have been very similar in some areas and vastly different in others. Both love to blitz, but Glenn was a man-heavy coach in Detroit, while Wilks historically leans heavily to the zone side. It will be interesting to see what their blended vision looks like.
25. How much will the Jets’ offense look like Detroit’s?
On the other side, I am curious to see how much Tanner Engstrand blends his Lions background with the personnel of the Jets. Justin Fields could hardly be more different than Jared Goff. Not everything that worked in Detroit will work here, but there are elements of the Lions’ offense that perfectly align with the Jets’ team-wide philosophy.
26. Just an average Nick Folk would be nice
Nick Folk was the NFL’s best kicker over the last two years, winning back-to-back field goal percentage titles. It would be typical Jets luck for him to come crashing down to Earth after returning home. For that reason, New York would probably be thrilled if he can just deliver a league-average field goal percentage.
27. But what if Folk dominates again?
It is fascinating, though, to think about how much value Folk can add if he manages to have another near-perfect season. Last season, Greg Zuerlein cost the Jets:
- 3 points in a 1-point loss (vs. Denver)
- 6 points in a 3-point loss (vs. Buffalo)
- 4 points in a 3-point loss (at New England)
With perfect kicking in those three contests, the atrocious 5-12 Jets suddenly turn into the mildly underwhelming 8-9 Jets.
That might mean Aaron Rodgers and Robert Saleh would still be in New York today, so perhaps Jets fans are thankful for Zuerlein’s sacrifice. But it goes to show that this Jets squad isn’t nearly as far off from being a competent football team as many think. If Folk kicks his butt off this year, he could add back the three wins that Zuerlein lost.
28. Quinnen Williams could see a major uptick in run TFLs, but sacks might still be hard to come by
Quinnen Williams remained an excellent player over the last two seasons, but he did not produce nearly as many splash plays as he did in 2022, when he had career highs in sacks (12.0), pass deflections (4), forced fumbles (2), tackles for loss (12), and quarterback hits (28).
Williams still does not have much pass-rush help to pull blockers off of him in obvious pass situations. But Harrison Phillips, who is extremely strong and also highly intelligent when it comes to holding up blockers to free up his teammates, will eat up space and blockers in a way that no teammate in Williams’ career ever has.
I am curious to see how the addition of Phillips impacts Williams’ ability to generate big-time plays. It may still be challenging for Williams to rack up many sacks, but I expect a serious uptick in tackles for loss against the run, as he will likely see the most one-on-ones of his career in that phase.
29. What do penalties mean for this Jets team?
When an NFL team loses, fans love to use penalty totals as a weapon for criticizing the coaching staff’s “lack of discipline.” In reality, there is almost no correlation between penalty totals and win percentage in the NFL. Each year, many bad teams that are poorly coached finish with low penalty totals, and many great teams that are well coached finish with high penalty totals.
The Jets led the NFL in penalties in each of the past two years. It is clearly something they should strive to improve upon, but how much do they actually want or need to improve upon it? Glenn is seeking to mold the Jets into a smashmouth football team that makes opposing quarterbacks wet the bed on Saturday night. Can he do that while simultaneously training his players to avoid penalties? That is an extremely difficult balance to strike.
I foresee a scenario where the Jets continue to commit a high number of penalties, but we can still look at the team and see an obvious difference in the way they are coached. That difference would be based on not just their effort, but also their mid-play discipline as it pertains to gap integrity, tackling, blocking assignments, and other fundamental aspects of the game.
New York will probably commit some excess penalties in areas like holding and roughing the passer. It’s the controllable penalties – pre-snap penalties, operational penalties, and foolish post-play penalties – that the Jets must focus on curbing. Those penalties can be pinned on the coaching staff as something that should be controlled.
But if the Jets rank highly in penalties as a byproduct of them playing extremely hard, they can live with it as long as that playstyle comes alongside noticeable positive benefits.
30. Surprise breakout stars?
Each season yields multiple breakout stars who few people saw coming. Last year, John Simpson and Jamien Sherwood led the charge (although yours truly predicted the Simpson breakout; hey, I miss on these takes constantly, so let me enjoy my rare bullseyes).
In 2022, former waiver pickup Quincy Williams and second-year fifth-round pick Michael Carter II broke out among the top players at their positions.
Who will be the surprise stars of 2025?
To pick one on each side of the ball, give me Isaiah Davis on offense and Leonard Taylor on defense.
Davis likely will not have a big role to start the season, but injuries pile up fast at running back, so he will likely get his chance to shine at some point. When he does, I can see Davis seizing the opportunity and staking his claim to a starting role going into 2026. I loved Davis’ film and metrics in 2024 and think he could be a diamond in the rough.
Defensively, Taylor is the second-best source of pass-rush production on the Jets’ interior defensive line. He displayed impressive explosiveness and pass-rush moves in his rookie year, with some splash plays in the run game to boot. Phillips remains the Jets’ second-best overall defensive tackle due to his run defense, but as the season progresses, Taylor should carve out a role, positioning himself to start in 2026.
31. Kene Nwangwu will bring back long-lost Jets return magic
Kickoff-return magic used to be a hallmark of Jets football.
From 2000 to 2012, the Jets led the NFL with 17 kick return touchdowns, six more than any other team. Players like Leon Washington, Justin Miller, Brad Smith, and Joe McKnight were always a threat to shift the momentum of a game.
Since 2013, though, the Jets have only scored three kick return touchdowns.
One of those was scored by Kene Nwangwu, who only needed one attempt to pull it off in his 2024 Jets debut. Going into 2025, kick returns are expected to spike around the NFL, creating more chances for Nwangwu to make noise. His four kick return touchdowns are the most among active players, and he should have ample opportunities to add to that total.
Return-game excellence goes beyond just the returner, though. You also need a good team of blockers. On that front, the Jets are also sitting pretty. New York prioritized special teams with its back-end roster decisions, keeping special teams aces like Qwan’tez Stiggers and Marcelino McCrary-Ball while claiming former Chiefs special teams playmaker Cam Jones on waivers.
Stiggers and McCrary-Ball had the two most important blocks on Nwangwu’s kick return touchdown in 2024. They’re back with the team in 2025 and ready to lead the charge again.
32. Can Justin Fields get his sack rate down?
Sacks are a quarterback stat. Period. It’s something that some NFL fans and analysts still don’t understand, but in the big 2025, it’s time we all learn it.
The offensive line’s job is to prevent pressure. Once the pressure gets home, it’s the quarterback’s job to not get sacked.
Justin Fields has dealt with some porous pass protection in his career, but he alone is to blame for his chronic sack woes. Fields’ career sack rate is 11.9%, the highest among qualified quarterbacks since 2021.
Fields dropped his sack rate to a career-low 9.0% in 2024, although it was still seventh-worst among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. He was sacked multiple times in all six of his starts despite averaging under 27 pass attempts per game. They were bad sacks, too, as he lost 7.8 yards per sack (the 2024 league average was 6.6).
Behind a Jets offensive line that projects to be solid in pass protection (even after Alijah Vera-Tucker’s injury), Fields should have a good chance to set another career-best in this category. But it’s ultimately on him to keep the sacks down. He must get the ball out quickly to eliminate chances for the defense to get home, and when the pressure does arrive, he has to know when it’s time to throw the ball away.
33. Sauce Gardner bounce-back
I fully expect Sauce Gardner to have a bounce-back year. Playing in a more man-heavy defensive scheme will benefit him, as it maximizes his length and physicality in coverage.
I am curious to see if the increases in man coverage and blitzing will create more interception chances for Gardner.
34. Olu’s leap
I don’t see much discussion about one of the most overlooked X-factors on offense: Olu Fashanu’s development.
Once he returned to his natural left tackle position in 2024, Fashanu was around the level of an average starter. Some metrics painted him as above average, others said he was average, and Joe Blewett believed that Fashanu’s film was slightly below-average for a starter.
Wherever you believe Fashanu landed in that range, it is still a great springboard for a 22-year-old rookie who had to shuffle between three different positions.
First-round offensive linemen often take enormous leaps in their second seasons. With Fashanu already setting the foundation of a middle-of-the-pack starting left tackle, a large leap could put him among the game’s best left tackles. He has the athleticism to pull it off, and with another year of experience, he could skyrocket.
This is an even more important variable for the Jets after Vera-Tucker’s injury. Losing Vera-Tucker is an enormous blow to the offensive line’s ceiling and collective talent level. Without one of their most talented blockers, the Jets are more vulnerable to some of the star defensive linemen they will face.
Fashanu has the talent to help the Jets make up for some of the talent lost in Vera-Tucker. If Fashanu can leap all the way to the elite ranks of the left tackle position, the offensive line’s collective ceiling will climb back to the top of the league. That’s to the upper end of potential outcomes for Fashanu – New York would be happy if he just improved from “average” to “good” – but it’s within the realm of possibility, and it would be a timely breakout in the wake of Vera-Tucker’s injury.
35. Andrew Freakin’ Beck
Not many people talked about the Andrew Beck addition, but Joe Blewett and I were very impressed with the man (relative to his contract) after digging into his profile, and now, he figures to be an important cog for the Jets’ offense. His multi-faceted blocking will be emphasized in a scheme where skill-position blocking is paramount.
36. Can the offensive line depth thrive?
Vera-Tucker’s injury will not be the last one suffered by a starting Jets offensive lineman. Chukwuma Okorafor, Max Mitchell, and Xavier Newman must be ready to answer the call when it arrives.
I like Okorafor and Newman relative to other backups around the league, although Mitchell is always an adventure, to say the least. I am also curious to see if undrafted rookie Esa Pole can develop into a useful backup for the Jets.
37. Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood’s pass-rush breakouts
The Jets’ likely spike in blitzing means a spike in pass-rush chances is coming for two specific players: Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood.
They are both athletic, fast linebackers who have made the most of their few career pass-rush snaps, so there is a high ceiling for them across a larger volume of blitzes. Both players could hit the three-sack mark.
This is a sneaky important aspect of the Jets’ defense. With limited pass-rush depth behind their top three stars, the Jets will be counting on the blitz to create sacks for them. That means it is on Williams and Sherwood to pick up some the sacks that used to come from the Jets’ fourth through sixth defensive linemen in recent years.
38. Thomas Hennessy is the GOAT
Yeah, I already used the “[Player] is the GOAT” headline for Austin McNamara back at No. 16, but so what? I’m using it for Thomas Hennessy, too. I don’t remember there being a law against that.
Call it lazy writing, call it using social media lingo to pander to the young audience – I truly do not care. Thomas Hennessy is the GOAT, and if you want to fight about it, bring it on.
In all seriousness, Hennessy continues to be a reliable mainstay for the Jets’ special teams unit. The fact that he never gets talked about shows he is doing his job as well as he possibly can. Jets fans can eagerly look forward to another season of forgetting he exists.
39. Why is Jeremy Ruckert still on the team?
It’s time for Jeremy Ruckert to show something. He made the Jets’ roster solely because they had no other options at tight end. Going on Year 4 as a former third-round pick, he needs to display some semblance of usefulness as either a receiver or blocker.
If he doesn’t, that brings us to No. 40.
40. Jelani Woods will be the Jets’ TE2
I do not expect Jelani Woods to play in Week 1, but in due time, I think it is quite clear he will be the Jets’ TE2.
Woods displayed legitimate TE2-caliber ability in his 2022 rookie season, and while he suffered two season-ending injuries since then, he appeared to pick up where he left off in the 2025 preseason. His size and athleticism give him upside that Ruckert cannot touch, and his blocking, while subpar, is no worse than Ruckert’s.
I think Woods will have a role in this offense fairly soon.
41. Where does Stone Smartt fit in the game plan?
Sticking with the tight end theme, I am curious to see how the Jets get Stone Smartt involved. I don’t think they will want him spending much time blocking in-line, but he is a potential mismatch weapon against linebackers, so they may have to deal with some in-line reps to draw him the mismatches that make him useful as a receiver.
If they just throw him out wide, defenses will probably be content to treat him as a wideout from a personnel-package standpoint, allowing them to cover him with a defensive back.
42. How will Armand Membou play as a rookie?
As we discussed earlier, Olu Fashanu was around a league-average starting left tackle in his rookie season. That is an above-expectations output for a rookie tackle.
The baseline expectation is that a first-round rookie tackle should be below-average. Rookie inexperience prevents most of them from being above-average, but their sheer talent is usually enough to make them competent starters.
I think Membou will have a similar rookie year to Fashanu. The good news is that his pass-blocking technique already looked NFL-ready at Missouri and in the preseason. His run blocking is much more raw, which is something the Jets can live with. It is more important that he is ready to protect the quarterback, so I can see Membou being a league-average right tackle in 2025.
43. How good is the Jets’ run blocking now?
Bouncing off the Membou point, his player profile brings up the question of how good the Jets’ run blocking will be.
They just lost their best run blocker in Vera-Tucker, replacing him with a poor run blocking center in Myers. If Membou undergoes rookie growing pains as a run blocker, the Jets will have two subpar run blockers in their starting five. They may even have three, as Fashanu is further along in the pass game than the run game.
44. That’s why skill position blocking is critical
Because of the run blocking questions in the offensive line, skill position blocking has become even more critical for the Jets than it already was. This is already projected to be a “no block, no rock” type of offense, but now that the offensive line looks like less of a run blocking juggernaut, it is doubly important for the tight ends, wide receivers, and backs to win their blocking assignments.
The Jets need every advantage they can get as they attempt to carve out rushing lanes against defenses that will be eagerly stacking the box due to their lack of fear of Justin Fields. If the skill position blockers can hold their own, the Jets can open up their outside run game, keeping the edge defenders and defensive backs honest. From there, they can attack the softened interior, mitigating Vera-Tucker’s absence.
45. Red zone offense?
It is easy to project the Jets as a good red zone offense because of their run game, but I think their performance in this category will be circumstantial.
If the Jets are on a long drive and have to push through all 20 yards of the red zone, I see them struggling. The high red zone (10-20 yard line) will be a problem for them. When the field shrinks, the defense will clamp down on the checkdowns that Fields will try to use to dink and dunk down the field, putting pressure on him to hit tight-window throws downfield against a condensed defense. I predict that the Jets will settle for many 27 to 40-yard field goals.
But if the Jets hit an explosive play or get a takeaway that allows them to skip the high red zone and start inside of the 10, I think they will thrive. With Fields, their offensive line, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis, they should be effective at punching in rushing touchdowns from a few yards out.
46. Steve Heiden
After head coach and offensive coordinator, offensive line coach has been the most maligned coaching position for the Jets in recent years. Many names have cycled through without delivering the intended results.
The Jets took a gamble on Steve Heiden, who is not only a first-time NFL offensive line coach, but has primarily coached tight ends. Outside of one season as the Cardinals’ assistant offensive line coach (2018), his entire coaching career has focused on tight ends.
It does not preclude Heiden from being a great offensive line coach, as the blocking techniques of tight ends and offensive linemen go hand in hand. If he fails, though, we may look back and wonder why the Jets did not bring in a more experienced offensive line coach to lead this group.
Heiden has a golden opportunity. As much as it hurts to lose Vera-Tucker, it is a chance for Heiden to display his impact as a coach. If the offensive line can continue to perform as a cohesive unit despite losing its best player, it would signal that Heiden is doing a fantastic job.
47. Micheal Clemons
Micheal Clemons is the Jets’ third edge rusher. It is not a predicament that any NFL team wants to be in, but this is where New York put itself after mostly ignoring the position throughout the offseason.
Edge depth is a major concern for this team. Barring an unforeseen breakout from Clemons, Braiden McGregor, or Tyler Baron, the Jets’ defensive line will take a nosedive any time Will McDonald or Jermaine Johnson jog to the sideline.
If Clemons can go a full season without committing any penalties, it will be a plus year by his standards.
On top of that, the Jets would just like to see some disciplined run defense. Clemons has the frame and strength to be a formidable edge setter, but it doesn’t matter when you play undisciplined. If Clemons can improve his patience and do a better job of diagnosing concepts, he could return to being a useful run defender, like he was in his 2022 rookie season.
48. Special teams will win games for the Jets
We have already talked about a few specific special teams topics for the Jets. To bring them all together, I want to lay down the prediction that New York will finish top five in special teams DVOA, and they will win multiple games where the special teams are a driving factor.
49. Can the DBs convert PDs to INTs?
The Jets’ defense was good at getting their hands on the football in recent years, but they were below average at converting those plays into turnovers.
Over the last three years, the Jets had 36 interceptions and 220 passes defended, a ratio of 16.4%. That’s a little bit below the 2024 league average (16.9%). It isn’t terrible, but that’s a lot of meat left on the bone.
After passes defended became an official stat in 1999, Aaron Glenn had an outstanding 28.4% ratio of interceptions to passes defended, posting 29 interceptions to 102 passes defended over the final 10 years of his career. Surely, he has been working hard to teach New York’s DBs how to convert their deflections into picks.
50. How many wins is a good season?
I don’t think the Jets’ success this season will be primarily evaluated by their record, but it cannot be ignored. Any sort of praise or criticism that exists outside of the win column is purely hypothetical, as everything we talk about regarding this sport is for the sole purpose of delivering one result: wins.
For that reason, I believe the Jets’ minimum goal is seven wins. That’s a two-win jump. From there, you have some evidence to back up the intangible signs of progress that New York hopes to show under Glenn and Darren Mougey’s leadership.
If the Jets win six games or fewer, it will be hard to feel much better about the direction of the franchise, regardless of the talk of “culture” and whatnot.
Perhaps there is a world where the Jets win six games and Justin Fields is the sole differentiator between them winning 11 or more, as they look perfect in every area besides league-worst quarterbacking. But as we saw after the Jets’ 2022 season, that type of season is not always an indicator that you are truly “a quarterback away,” even if it appears to be the case on paper.
Ultimately, winning is the only unequivocal indicator of progress.
