Brandon Stephens was one of the New York Jets’ most scrutinized free agent signings of the 2025 offseason.

When rookie general manager Darren Mougey signed Stephens to a three-year, $36 million deal with $23 million guaranteed, it raised a lot of eyebrows, including those of yours truly. The former Raven had just allowed the second-most yards of any NFL cornerback in the 2024 season. Signing him to a top-25 deal at the position felt unwarranted.

It was a projection-based signing by New York. The Jets paid Stephens for who he could be, not who he was. They bet on their coaching staff to elevate his game.

To New York’s credit, it wasn’t a bet made out of blind faith. There was evidence showing that Stephens had lofty potential if he could iron out some of the wrinkles in his game.

In terms of sticking with receivers throughout the route, Stephens was one of the NFL’s top corners in 2024. Stephens forced a tight-window throw on 33.7% of his targets; that was the fifth-best mark out of 83 cornerbacks to face at least 50 targets. He joined some pretty good company, including a current teammate.

2024 tight-window throw* rate among CBs (min. 50 targets), per NFL Pro:

  1. Tariq Woolen, SEA (39.3%)
  2. Denzel Ward, CLE (37.5%)
  3. D.J. Reed, NYJ (37.3%)
  4. Sauce Gardner, NYJ (35.3%)
  5. Brandon Stephens, BAL (33.7%)
  6. Trent McDuffie, KC (33.3%)

*Tight-window throw = less than one yard of separation between the receiver and the nearest defender when the pass arrives

Stephens’ film supported what the numbers suggested: In terms of pure coverage skills, he was an excellent corner.

The only problem: Stephens would fold once the ball was airborne.

Through a combination of poor technique, lackluster awareness, and an inability to track the ball, Stephens allowed plenty of deep receptions even when his coverage was tight. He allowed a CPOE (completion percentage over expected) of 9.5%, ranking third-worst out of 83 qualified corners. Stephens also committed five pass interference penalties.

Because of Stephens’ poor ball skills, opponents peppered him with targets regardless of how tight his coverage was. They knew he could be beaten over the top any time he was left one-on-one with a receiver.

The Jets’ challenge was simple: Teach Stephens how to play the ball.

If they could do that, his ceiling was high. He already had what you couldn’t teach: The athleticism, length, and pure talent to blanket NFL wide receivers.

But if Stephens never figured out how to play the ball, he would be a liability regardless of how good he was at sticking with receivers.

It made him the ultimate high-ceiling, low-floor signing.

Seven games into the 2025 season, the Jets have seen both ends of the Stephens spectrum—but he’s starting to trend in a clear direction.

Three games in, it seemed like the Jets’ gamble on Stephens was coming up empty.

Stephens had a rough debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who knew him well from his time in Baltimore. He allowed 5-of-7 targets in his direction to be completed for 60 yards and two touchdowns. Stephens also committed a pass interference penalty, missed a tackle, and dropped a potential interception.

While Stephens’ next two games weren’t as glaringly poor, he continued to struggle. In Week 2, all three passes thrown his way resulted in first downs. In Week 3, he allowed an easy touchdown to Mike Evans due to questionable technique at the goal line.

Through Week 3, Stephens was tied for the most touchdowns allowed among cornerbacks (3) while yielding a 131.7 passer rating on throws into his coverage.

Since then, Stephens has enjoyed a night-and-day turnaround.

Over his last four games, Stephens yielded a 79.5 passer rating into his coverage. He allowed 8-of-14 passes in his direction to be completed for 100 yards, and 46 of those came on one play against Dallas; he’s allowed just 54 yards on 13 targets outside of that play. The big mistakes have nearly disappeared; Stephens allowed no touchdowns, committed no penalties, and missed just one tackle.

The film shows exactly what the Jets were hoping it would when they signed Stephens. He’s doing a much better job of locating the football and making plays on it.

From Weeks 4-7, Stephens tied Patrick Surtain II for the second-most pass breakups among cornerbacks (5).

Stephens has also been fantastic as a tackler. Since Week 4, he leads cornerbacks with 10 defensive stops (tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense). He pulled it off while missing only one tackle.

Is Darren Mougey vindicated?

Not yet.

Over the last four games, Stephens has been the quality CB2 that Darren Mougey paid him to become.

That doesn’t erase his first three games, though. Those are still included in his body of work. With both a cold streak and a hot streak in the rearview, it remains to be seen which version of Stephens will show up more often for the remainder of the season.

If Stephens can keep up his recent level of play for the rest of the year, Mougey will have stuck the landing on one of his highest-risk moves to date.

But we still have 10 games left for Stephens to revert to his old habits.

Cornerback is arguably the most volatile position in the NFL. A player can pitch a shutout one week and allow two touchdown bombs over his head the next. Corners who can get the job done nearly every week are rare; it’s why Sauce Gardner deserved the big bucks.

Stephens, like most corners, tends to be hot-and-cold throughout the season. This is not his first hot streak around this part of the calendar.

From Weeks 3-8 of 2023, Stephens yielded a 61.8 passer rating, racking up two interceptions and three pass breakups while allowing no touchdowns.

Even in his down 2024 season, Stephens had a stretch from Weeks 3-5 where he allowed a 75.8 passer rating. He allowed no touchdowns, committed no penalties, and missed just one tackle. Sound familiar?

Consistency is the key for Stephens, just like it is for any NFL player. No player would earn a starting job in this league if he hadn’t shown at least one stretch of high-level performance. What separates the stars from the starters and the starters from the backups is how consistently you can stay in peak form.

Stephens’ peak form is pretty darn good. We’ve seen it over the past four weeks and multiple times throughout his career. He’s a tall, big, physical, lengthy, and athletic corner who provides sticky coverage. When everything’s clicking, a guy like that will look dominant.

The issue for Stephens is that he hasn’t been able to keep everything clicking on a consistent basis.

Can he find that consistency as a Jet?

That’s what we’ll find out over the next 10 games.