Off to the worst start for a head coach in New York Jets franchise history, there is already a widespread expectation that Aaron Glenn is coaching for his job. He has the second-best odds to be the next head coach fired.
With Glenn facing the possibility of a one-and-done season, it’s worth comparing his performance to recent one-and-done coaches. What has it taken for teams to dump coaches during or after their first year with the franchise? Has Glenn reached that level of ineptitude?
Aaron Glenn vs. recent one-and-done head coaches
Since 2018, nine NFL head coaches have been fired before reaching their second season with the team. Three of those coaches were fired mid-season.
- Jerod Mayo (2024 Patriots)
- Antonio Pierce (2024 Raiders)
- Frank Reich (2023 Panthers): Fired mid-season
- Nathaniel Hackett (2022 Broncos): Fired mid-season
- Lovie Smith (2022 Texans)
- David Culley (2021 Texans)
- Urban Meyer (2021 Jaguars): Fired mid-season
- Freddie Kitchens (2019 Browns)
- Steve Wilks (2018 Cardinals)
What is the best way to stack Glenn up against these coaches?
Quantifying a coach’s performance is difficult, but one of the best methods is to compare his team’s performance to expectations.
So, let’s evaluate how each of those nine teams performed compared to their pre-season expectations.
To do this, we’ll compare the team’s regular season performance to their pre-season over-under win total.
However, instead of using the team’s raw win-loss record, we’ll use their Pythagorean win total (their “expected” win total based on total points scored and allowed) adjusted for their strength of schedule. This gives us a stronger analysis of the team’s overall performance than unadjusted wins and losses.
Without further ado, let’s see how Glenn stacks up against recent one-and-done coaches.
Is Aaron Glenn coaching at a one-and-done level?
The Pythagorean win totals, strength-of-schedule ratings, and pre-season over-unders used in this article are courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
For starters, let’s evaluate the Jets’ performance under Glenn so far.
The Jets have been outscored 129 to 183, an average point differential of -7.7. This ranks 26th in the league. However, the Jets have faced an easy strength of schedule, rated at -2.7 (28th), which drops their Simple Rating System (point differential adjusted for strength of schedule) to a league-worst -10.4.
Based on an SRS of -10.4, the Jets have a Pythagorean win total of 1.7 through seven games. This puts them on pace for 4.2 Pythagorean wins through 17 games.
The Jets’ pre-season over-under was 6.5, which means Glenn is on pace for -2.3 Pythagorean wins versus expectation.
Let’s see where that stacks up.
Note: For coaches fired mid-season, these metrics still include the team’s full-season sample, including games after the firing; it’s worth attributing the full season to the head coach since they established the roster, schemes, culture, etc.
Based on this analysis, Glenn is performing worse than the average one-and-done head coach.
The Jets’ current SRS is better than only Urban Meyer’s 2021 Jaguars and Steve Wilks’ 2018 Cardinals. In terms of Pythagorean wins above expected, Glenn is on pace to beat only Meyer, Wilks, Frank Reich’s 2023 Panthers, and Nathaniel Hackett’s 2023 Broncos.
That’s… not very good company.
The good news for Glenn is that he is safe from consideration for a mid-season firing. The bottom three in coaches in Pythagorean wins above expected also happen to be the only three coaches fired mid-season (affirming its viability as a solid metric for evaluating coaching). Glenn is above Meyer, Reich, and Hackett in that department for now.
But if the Jets continue stockpiling low-quality losses, he might be in their territory soon.
For comparison’s sake, here is the same chart with two more seasons added: the 2017 49ers and the 2021 Lions. These teams represented the 0-9 and 0-8 starts of Kyle Shanahan and Dan Campbell, respectively, who are two of the only four coaches over the last 45 years to start 0-6 with a team and eventually bring them to the playoffs (a club Glenn is trying to join).
Right now, Glenn is much closer to deserving one-and-done buzz than comparisons to Campbell and Shanahan.
What does this mean?
That’s up to Woody Johnson.
The Jets’ owner may have already decided before the year that Glenn will make it to 2026 no matter what the Jets do this season. If that’s the case, it doesn’t really matter how Glenn compares to some of the worst head coaches in recent history.
Johnson’s faith is being tested, though. Even with the Jets facing relatively low expectations entering the year, he surely was not prepared for the team to perform this poorly. Glenn’s name being mentioned alongside Urban Meyer’s on October 24th could only have happened in Johnson’s darkest nightmares.
If the Jets continue tumbling down this waterfall of misery, we will find out what matters most to Johnson.
There is no question that if the Jets put out 10 more games of the same product we have seen thus far, Glenn will find himself comfortably situated within the territory where it is justifiable to give up on him after one season. In that event, Johnson would be excused for admitting he made a mistake and cutting his losses rather than prolonging the inevitable.
But Johnson may be unwilling to admit his mistake so quickly. Ever aware of his public perception, Johnson could be afraid of adding to his reputation as an impatient owner who constantly hires the wrong people. This might cause him to keep Glenn no matter how bad things get, holding out hope that Glenn will vindicate him and save him from more humiliation.
There are still 10 games left. In a perfect Jets world, Glenn leads New York to an inspiring turnaround that removes his name from graphics featuring Nathaniel Hackett.
Significant progress is needed for that to happen, though. If that progress doesn’t come, Glenn’s name will still be in Hackett territory once January rolls around. Is that something Woody Johnson can live with as his franchise prepares to draft a quarterback in the top five?
Hopefully, the Jets start winning some games, and we don’t have to find out.
