On a struggling team devoid of depth, the New York Jets’ 2025 draft class has gotten a chance to make strong contributions in its rookie year.
The most glaring exception is fourth-round wide receiver Arian Smith. While Smith has regularly taken the field, logging 277 offensive snaps (53.8%), his playing time has not translated to much production. Smith has caught six of 10 targets for 47 yards and no touchdowns.
Compared to Armand Membou’s stellar grades, Mason Taylor’s 29 receptions, or Azareye’h Thomas’ three pass breakups in limited time, Smith’s stat line seems underwhelming.
However, Smith’s underlying metrics paint a rosier picture of the potential he has displayed.
According to this chart from Pro Football Focus analyst Judah Fortgang, Smith leads NFL wide receivers in average separation versus man coverage through Week 8. He is just ahead of former Chicago Bears first-rounder Rome Odunze, and two spots ahead of Jets teammate Garrett Wilson.
Unfortunately for Smith and the Jets, that league-best separation has translated to league-worst production in terms of yards per route run versus man coverage.
However, as you can see from a glance at the chart, there tends to be a correlation between separation and production. As receivers create more separation, they tend to be more productive—as one would logically assume to be the case.
It’s a promising sign for the 24-year-old rookie. The production hasn’t been there yet, largely due to the reluctance of New York’s quarterbacks to throw downfield. But if Smith continues creating separation at the same rate, he could become a special player for New York.
When you flip on the tape, you can see the plays that led Smith to his elite separation rating. There have been plenty of instances where Smith breezed by a cornerback for a potential deep shot, but wasn’t targeted.
Due to the threat of Smith’s 4.36 speed, defenders often give him a large cushion off the line of scrimmage. He’s used these cushions to create significant separation on in-breaking routes over the middle of the field.
Coming out of Georgia, the primary concern about Smith’s game was his hands. In 2024, Smith tied for third among FBS receivers with 10 drops, while he only caught two of nine contested targets (22%).
With only 10 NFL targets to date, the Jets have been unable to thoroughly evaluate Smith’s hands. He’s yet to be credited with a drop, but the Jets need to see substantially more opportunities to fairly judge his sure-handedness at the professional level.
From a separation standpoint, though, Smith is doing his job. He’s creating opportunities; all he needs is for the quarterback to throw him the ball. Then, it’s up to Smith to prove that he’s curbed his catching woes from college.
New York clearly landed a high-ceiling weapon in the fourth round of this year’s draft. It’s time to give him a fair chance to reach that ceiling.
