Trade up, punt to 2027, or take the best quarterback available at their draft slot?

That is the prevailing debate in New York, as the Jets, projected to select only seventh overall despite a 3-10 record, continue their never-ending search for a franchise quarterback.

One ESPN insider laid out his prediction for how the Jets will find their next signal-caller, and it features a trade with their cross-town rivals that would be considered a robbery in Gang Green’s favor.

Field Yates’ 2026 NFL mock draft

On Wednesday morning, ESPN NFL insider Field Yates published his first 2026 mock draft since before the regular season began.

The highlight: A massive trade between two teams who share the nation’s largest media market.

Yates has the Jets trading up to the Giants’ first overall pick, where Gang Green selects Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

The package Yates projects the Jets to give up, though, seems wildly unrealistic by modern trade-value standards.

Yates has the Jets giving up the No. 7 pick (their own first-rounder), the No. 18 pick (Indianapolis’ first-rounder), and an unspecified “Day 2 pick” in exchange for the Giants’ first overall pick.

That’s it.

Even if we assumed that Yates’ unspecified Day 2 pick is the Jets’ second-rounder (currently slotted at No. 38), the Jets would win this trade on the classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart. The first overall pick is worth 3,000 points, while the Jets’ package would be worth 2,920 points.

  • Jets receive: No. 1 (3,000)
  • Giants receive: No. 7 (1,500), No. 18 (900), No. 38 (520) = 2,920

The Johnson model is outdated, but even if we used modernized valuation charts, the Jets would still emerge as clear winners. Based on this revised model from Drafttek, the Jets make out like bandits.

  • Jets receive: No. 1 (1,000)
  • Giants receive: No. 7 (426), No. 18 (287), No. 38 (157) = 870

In real life, it seems extremely unlikely that the Giants would accept this deal. The Jets’ package is not nearly valuable enough for the Giants to justify dropping six slots from the first overall pick.

Typically, the team trading down wins the deal on these valuation charts, especially when it comes to high-first-round trades involving a quarterback. This is even more true when discussing trades for the first overall pick.

The most recent trade involving the No. 1 pick featured the Carolina Panthers moving up eight spots from No. 9 to acquire Chicago’s top selection in 2023. In addition to the ninth pick, Carolina gave up its second-round pick (No. 61), a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick, and wide receiver D.J. Moore.

That comes to two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and a high-quality offensive weapon in his prime to move up eight spots. Yates’ projection has the Jets giving up two first-rounders and one second-rounder to move up six spots. It doesn’t add up.

Prior to 2023, the latest trade involving the No. 1 pick occurred in 2026, when the Los Angeles Rams jumped 14 spots to select Jared Goff with the Tennessee Titans’ pick.

In exchange, the Rams gave up their first-rounder (No. 15), two second-rounders (Nos. 43 and 45), a third-rounder (No. 76), a 2017 first-rounder, and a 2017 third-rounder. Los Angeles also got back a pair of Day 3 picks in the 2016 draft (fourth and sixth rounds).

Once again, Yates’ projection simply doesn’t align with the values established by recent trades.

We at Jets X-Factor, including myself and Connor Long, have recently spoken against the idea of the Jets trading up for a quarterback in the 2026 draft. However, if the Jets have an opportunity to make a trade like the one Yates projected, they would be remiss not to take it. Relative to what is usually required to move into the No. 1 slot, it would be a colossal steal to move up six spots while enduring a net loss no larger than one mid-first-rounder and one second-rounder.

In Yates’ scenario, the Jets would be able to select Mendoza first overall and still make a second-round pick with the choice they acquired from Dallas in the Quinnen Williams trade. They would also maintain all three of their first-round choices in the 2027 draft.

Most likely, though, the Giants would never accept this laughable offer from the Jets, which is why mock drafts are nothing but pure entertainment. If the Jets want to move up to the No. 1 pick, they will probably have to give up the package Yates projected and toss in multiple additional premium picks. The Giants would be out of their minds to hand their cross-town rivals a franchise quarterback without dipping into the Jets’ precious trio of 2027 first-rounders, especially because the Jets would probably be competing with other quarterback-needy teams trying to pry away the Giants’ pick.

At that point, trading up becomes a more daunting proposition for the talent-hungry Jets. As much as they need a quarterback, they have a plethora of other holes to fill, too, and that becomes significantly more difficult when allocating a multitude of premium picks to acquire one player. Unless they can luck into a surreal offer like the one Yates projected, trading up would leave the Jets with a dearth of resources to fill out their weak roster.

Although this mock draft may be unrealistic, the food for thought is greatly appreciated. It sparks fascinating conversations, such as the one we had in this article. That’s the best way to consume mock drafts: not as indicators of what might actually happen, but as healthy conversation-starters that ignite deeper dives into the sport.