A sizable chunk of NFL games are decided by one simple question: Which quarterback was better?
In the 2025 season, teams posted a 208-71 record (.746) when they finished with a better passer rating than their opponent, equivalent to about 12.7 wins over a 17-game schedule.
So, with absolutely no other context about how the rest of the game transpired, we can determine with near-75% certainty which team won, solely based on which quarterback was more efficient (at least based on passer rating).
That brings us to the New York Jets and penciled-in starter Geno Smith. How often will Smith give New York a quarterback advantage in 2026?
Let’s try to figure that out.
Game-by-game
One method of doing this is to go game-by-game through the Jets’ 2026 schedule and deduce which team has the better quarterback in each matchup.
However, it isn’t a fool-proof analysis, for one crucial reason: The better quarterback isn’t always going to be the better quarterback in that game.
Back in Week 9 of the 2022 season, the Jets defeated the Bills with Zach Wilson (101.1) having a passer rating more than twice as high as Josh Allen’s (46.8). That’s just one example, but it goes to show that, even if a quarterback is worse than his opponent on paper, it does not guarantee that he will have the worst performance when they match up.
So, keep that in mind as we go through this section. After this, we’ll take a look at Smith’s past four seasons as a starting quarterback to see precisely how often he outplayed the opposing quarterback.
To start out, though, here is a comparison of Smith versus every quarterback on the Jets’ schedule.
Week 1: Cam Ward, Titans
Ward had a brutal rookie season. The Titans are hoping for a second-year leap with new weapons and a solid offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll, but given that the Jets will catch Ward in his first game with a completely revamped system and roster, he probably will still be enduring growing pains.
Advantage: Smith (1-0)
Week 2: Jordan Love, Packers
Love is an erratic quarterback who could go from hero to zero in the blink of an eye, but his overall body of work is stronger than Smith’s.
Advantage: Love (1-1)
Week 3: Jared Goff, Lions
Goff is one of the league’s most consistent and efficient quarterbacks, even if he has a limited ceiling. Smith’s arm strength and deep prowess give him the ceiling to be better than Goff on a given day, but Goff offers a much higher floor and much better consistency from week to week.
Advantage: Goff (1-2)
Week 4: Caleb Williams, Bears
After a rocky rookie season, Williams leaped to the level of a solid starter in Year 2. He was still erratic, but he did a far better job of avoiding sacks, and his clutch gene was undeniable. With another leap expected in Year 3, Williams should be the better quarterback.
Advantage: Williams (1-3)
Week 5: Deshaun Watson, Browns
Whether it’s Watson or Shedeur Sanders, the Jets can be expected to have a significant advantage under center in Week 5.
Advantage: Smith (2-3)
Week 6 and 16: Drake Maye, Patriots
Barring a massive post-MVP/Super Bowl hangover, Maye should be a far better quarterback than Geno Smith.
Advantage: Maye (2-5)
Week 7 and 12: Malik Willis, Dolphins
Willis is one of the toughest players to evaluate on this list. He showed an incredibly low floor across two seasons in Tennessee, but responded with video game-like efficiency across a small sample of opportunities in Green Bay.
The Dolphins hope to get the Green Bay version of Willis, but given that the Packers were an excellent environment for a young quarterback, while the Dolphins are essentially tanking, it feels more likely that Willis will lean toward his Titans days, which would give Smith the advantage.
Advantage: Smith (4-5)
Week 8: Kirk Cousins/Fernando Mendoza, Raiders
Post-Achilles Kirk Cousins has looked similar to the Raiders version of Smith, and it’s hard to see that changing since Cousins is an older quarterback saddled with the lingering effects of a serious lower-body injury. Conversely, Smith still offers a chance of getting back to his Seahawks ceiling, which would give Smith the advantage if Cousins were to start.
If Mendoza starts, there is no telling what he will look like in Year 1. However, since most rookie quarterbacks struggle, Smith would still likely have the advantage, especially since the Jets are at home.
Advantage: Smith (5-5)
Week 9: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
By this point, Mahomes will likely have had a few weeks to reacclimate after returning from his ACL injury. Even if he has only just returned and is a fraction of himself, he would still be a better quarterback than Smith.
Advantage: Mahomes (5-6)
Week 10 and 18: Josh Allen, Bills
Does a blurb need to be written here?
Fine, we’ll write one. Everyone can agree that Allen is a better quarterback than Smith, which gives him a clear advantage in both matchups. The Jets’ hope, though, is that the turnover-prone Allen shows up in one of these games.
Allen has had a handful of sloppy games against the Jets, allowing New York to steal some victories. But Smith is equally prone to that sort of game. So, even if Allen has a stinker, the Jets need to hope that one of Smith’s stinkers does not fall on the same afternoon.
Advantage: Allen (5-8)
Week 11: Justin Herbert, Chargers
One of the most polarizing quarterbacks of his generation, Herbert has shown some of the most awe-inspiring highs of any active player in the NFL, but often looks strangely mediocre for long stretches.
Herbert’s year-to-year production tends to fluctuate wildly, often depending on his supporting cast. From a pure talent standpoint, though, it is difficult to dispute that he has one of the 3-5 best arms in the game and is capable of putting his team on his back at any moment. If Week 11 comes down to a shootout, Herbert will be favored to out-gun Smith.
Advantage: Herbert (5-9)
Week 14: Bo Nix, Broncos
Nix’s play has been slightly overrated due to his defense carrying him to some wins; he threw for just 6.4 yards per pass attempt in 2025, sixth-worst among qualifiers.
However, his rushing impact, ability to avoid sacks, and ball security make him a winning quarterback for a defense-first team. He should be favored to have a more efficient outing than Smith, especially with the possibility of Year 3 progress.
Advantage: Nix (5-10)
Week 15: Jacoby Brissett/Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals
Brissett is Arizona’s projected starter, although he remains in a contract dispute with the team. Either way, whether the Cardinals start Brissett or third-round rookie Carson Beck, the advantage goes to Smith. Beck won’t be ready to produce in Year 1, while Brissett is an overly safe checkdown artist who hasn’t shown nearly the same ceiling as Smith.
Advantage: Smith (6-10)
Week 17: Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings
Assuming that Kyler Murray wins the Vikings’ starting job over J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota should be a successful team on the strength of its defense. He’s a competent starter, which is all the Vikings should need with their defensive talent. With an average quarterback in 2025, the Vikings probably would have nearly matched their 14-3 record in 2024 with Sam Darnold.
From a quarterback standpoint, though, Smith and Murray are on a similar plane. Murray undoubtedly has the far higher ceiling, given his age, No. 1 overall pedigree, two Pro Bowls, and brief MVP flirtation back in 2021.
However, over the past four years, it’s Smith who has posted a higher passer rating (93.2 vs. 90.3) and thrown for significantly more yards per attempt (7.3 vs. 6.6), while being healthy to start far more games (64 vs. 41) and winning a higher percentage of those starts. If Murray sits, the likes of McCarthy will start, giving the Jets an easy advantage.
Advantage: Smith (7-10)
How often does Smith outplay his opponent?
On paper, it seems fair to suggest that Smith will give the Jets a quarterback advantage in 7 of their 17 games.
As we said, though, it does not necessarily mean that Smith will be the better quarterback in 7 of 17 games. There will be times when he is outplayed by a worse quarterback, and times when he outplays a better quarterback.
The number of games in which Smith outplays the opposing quarterback will come down to his consistency. This is the area where New York’s quarterbacks have long struggled. While players like Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and even Justin Fields had exciting high points, they were the worst quarterback on the field more often than not.
So, how consistent has Smith been at outplaying his opponent?
There are countless metrics to measure this, but for the sake of simplicity, we will stick with passer rating.
Smith started 49 games over his three-year run as the Seahawks’ starter (2022-24). Across those 49 games, Seattle finished with a better passer rating than the opponent 30 times, which is a 61.2% clip. The Seahawks went 23-7 in those games (.767).
Interestingly, for all his struggles with the Raiders in 2025, Smith still led Las Vegas to a better passer rating than the opponent in 10 of 15 starts (66.7%). It didn’t amount to much, as the Raiders went 2-8, but it’s a feather in Smith’s cap.
Overall, across the past four seasons, Smith’s team finished with a better passer rating than the opposing team in 40 of his 64 starts, a 62.5% rate. Comparatively, over the same span, the Jets had a better passer rating than their opponent in just 29 of their 68 games, a 42.6% rate; only the Panthers, Cardinals, and Titans were worse.
Once again, we have evidence suggesting that Smith is more of an upgrade for the Jets than many people are willing to admit. In quite a few facets, he has the potential to be their best quarterback in many years.
That isn’t to say he has a superstar ceiling, or that he could be the franchise’s long-term solution. Many Jets fans are hesitant to get too excited about him for those reasons, and would rather see the team continue tanking until they get their hands on a player with that sort of upside.
But for a franchise that has missed the playoffs 15 years in a row, without coming remotely close in the majority of those, it’s time to realize that the ascent to title contention has to start somewhere. It’s not going to happen overnight with the arrival of a savior. The foundation has to be built first; no player with “savior” potential will ever be able to develop in New York if the Jets keep throwing said hopeful saviors into three-win cultures.
Smith is the type of quarterback who can help build that foundation.
A wild card season, or even a near-wild card season, could be the springboard New York needs to take that next leap toward winning a championship. The Jets’ quarterbacks in recent years have been too inconsistent to anchor that type of season.
With a quarterback who has posted a higher passer rating than his opponent in more than three out of every five starts across the past four seasons, the Jets may finally be capable of having the entertaining, inspiring, competitive season that fans have been longing for. At last, the culture would change based on actual on-field success, rather than mere press-conference speeches.
That’s what a real culture change looks like. You need wins, and to get wins, you need a consistent, reliable starting quarterback.
Geno Smith fits the bill, as shocking as that may seem to Jets fans who are still judging him on his first tenure with the team instead of his body of work over the last four seasons.
