When many NFL fans and analysts first heard that Geno Smith would be returning as the New York Jets’ starting quarterback, they wrote it off as the latest comical Jets move in a long line of them.
It’s an understandable reaction. After all, on paper, it reads like a Hollywood comedy script.
Smith struggled mightily for the Jets to begin his career, committing one baffling turnover after the next. His on-field woes were punctuated by a broken jaw at the fist of his own teammate. Many years later, he became a quality starting quarterback in Seattle, but that success disappeared after a move to Las Vegas. In typical Jets fashion, it’s at this descending point of his career that the Jets decide to bring Smith back.
Go ahead and laugh. Why wouldn’t you?
It’s all fun and games… until you actually look at some numbers.
As much as critics poke fun at the Jets for their acquisition of Smith, there is a very realistic chance that he gives the team a massive upgrade at quarterback compared to his predecessors.
It’s a truth that many people don’t want to admit; including some of the Jets’ own fans.
Geno Smith vs. Justin Fields vs. Aaron Rodgers
On Wednesday, Yahoo Sports analyst Nate Tice shared a scatter plot that displays qualified quarterbacks since 2023 (min. 500 attempts) based on their successful play rate (X axis) and explosive play rate (Y axis). It shows where quarterbacks stand compared to their peers in both consistency (successful play rate) and explosiveness (explosive play rate).
Based on these metrics, Smith stands out as a comfortably above-average quarterback in both categories, and that’s over a sample that includes his rough 2025 season with the Raiders.
Meanwhile, the two starting quarterbacks who preceded him in New York, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields, are neck-and-neck, deeply nestled in the quadrant of quarterbacks who are both inconsistent and un-explosive. They are in the same neighborhood as the likes of Aidan O’Connell.
For those who are pessimistic about the Jets’ chances of competing for a playoff spot in 2026, this visual is food for thought. Most who assume that the Jets are doomed for another awful season are basing their logic on New York’s perceived lack of a quarterback upgrade. But is that really the case?
If the Jets get Smith’s baseline level of play from his three-year body of work since 2023, he will be a significant upgrade over the level of play that New York received from Fields and Rodgers over the past two seasons. That’s a fact, and it’s one that the Jets’ harshest critics should take to heart as they mull their 2026 predictions over the next few months.
It will all come down to whether Smith’s 2025 season in Las Vegas ultimately goes down as a sign of his impending mid-30s decline, or a misleading blip on the radar that can be pinned on the terrible coaching staff and roster that Smith was saddled with.
The Jets hope that their revamped offensive ecosystem will reveal the truth to be the latter.
