It’s a sentence that, hopefully for New York Jets fans’ sanity, will only be parroted for about two more days:
The Jets badly need wide receiver help.
Given their need for a wide receiver, there is growing buzz that the Jets should trade up from the No. 16 pick for a wide receiver.
This narrative is largely based on the consensus idea that there are only three wideouts in the 2026 draft class worthy of being chosen in the top 16—Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, and Jordyn Tyson—and that the Jets will have to move up to secure one of them.
Otherwise, they would be forced to reach on a receiver at No. 16 or take the best player available at another position, leaving the receiver need to be punted into the second round.
If the consensus big board proves accurate, these hypotheses could hold true in real life. But what if there is another wide receiver who the Jets believe would justify being selected at No. 16, even if the consensus thinks otherwise?
His name is KC Concepcion, and his underrated candidacy for the pick can be summarized by one stat.
Does context change everything for KC Concepcion?
Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion is rarely mentioned as an option for the Jets with the 16th overall pick. The 21-year-old is currently ranked as the WR5 and No. 23 overall prospect on the consensus big board. This, of course, would make him a slight reach with the 16th pick if the Jets have him ranked identically on their board.
But the consensus big board is based on the opinions of outsiders, not NFL teams. What if NFL teams, including the Jets, are higher on Concepcion than the consensus?
Given that he is the No. 23 overall prospect, the Jets wouldn’t even have to be that much higher on Concepcion than the average analyst to view him as a viable option with the 16th pick. And based on the following stat, the Jets might be justified if they are fond of Concepcion.
According to Jacob Gibbs of Fantasy Football Today, Concepcion had an off-target rate of 42% on throws of 15+ air yards in 2025. This was the highest rate among the following 11 receiver prospects:
- KC Concepcion (42%)
- Malachi Fields (41%)
- Denzel Boston (33%)
- Carnell Tate (32%)
- Jordyn Tyson (31%)
- Skyler Bell (26%)
- Chris Bell (24%)
- Makai Lemon (22%)
- Omar Cooper Jr. (21%)
- Chris Brazzell (19%)
- Elijah Sarratt (5%)
Outside of Notre Dame’s Malachi Fields (the consensus No. 78 overall prospect), none of these prospects were even close to Concepcion when it came to how often their quarterbacks delivered off-target passes on downfield throws.
At 42%, Concepcion was given an off-target throw on more than four out of every 10 targets of 15+ air yards. This is an especially critical piece of context for a player like Concepcion because his overall production is one of the main reasons why he isn’t held in a higher regard by the consensus.
Concepcion’s 2025 stats do not jump off the page relative to the standards of a potential top-16 pick. In 13 games, he caught 61 passes for 919 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Overall, he averaged 2.46 yards per route run, which is considered a well-below-average number for a potential first-rounder. For context, from 2018-24, first-round wide receivers averaged 3.02 yards per route run in their final college seasons.
Carnell Tate (3.03) and Makai Lemon (3.13) both eclipsed that benchmark in 2025. While Jordyn Tyson (2.37) did not, he had an injury-plagued year that weakened his production; back when he was healthy in 2024, he was up at 3.04.
Thus, it stands to reason that Concepcion’s lack of production relative to Tate, Lemon, and Tyson can explain why he is ranked lower by the consensus. But when you consider that Concepcion received perhaps the worst quarterbacking of the group, it suggests that the production gap is due to factors outside of Concepcion’s control, rather than a difference in skill.
Jets X-Factor’s Joe Blewett has highlighted Concepcion’s impressive releases and route-running at all three levels on film. Unfortunately for Concepcion, when only 58% of your throws of 15+ yards are on-target, all of that separation will amount to little on the stat sheet, leaving legions of uninformed fans to think less of you if they did not watch your film.
If the Jets believe that Concepcion is on par with the likes of Tate, Lemon, and Tyson after accounting for his quarterback play, they will probably be happy to stand pat at No. 16 and scoop him up.
That’s if another receiver-needy team doesn’t feel the same way and take him earlier.
