On Friday, we highlighted three matchups on the New York Jets’ 2026 schedule that may be more winnable than many fans and analysts are giving them credit for.

It’s time to flip the script. Here are three matchups commonly chalked up as a “W” that could be much harder than fans expect.

Week 5 vs. Cleveland Browns

Let’s be honest: A team that currently projects to start Deshaun Watson should not be viewed as a remote threat to push for a playoff spot. The Browns aren’t going anywhere with this quarterback room, unless Shedeur Sanders takes a meteoric leap.

But when your defense boasts a superhuman like Myles Garrett, you have a chance to win any football game, especially when he is surrounded by the likes of Mason Graham, Maliek Collins, Quincy Williams, Carson Schewsinger, Denzel Ward, and Grant Delpit.

Despite their horrid offense, the Browns finished 2025 with the league’s eighth-best defense according to DVOA. Pro Football Focus graded them as the second-best defense in the NFL. Cleveland even allowed the fewest yards per drive in the league (24.5), the inverse of the offense’s No. 32 placement (22.8).

The Browns have proven they can beat good teams behind their defense. They picked up wins over the Packers, Steelers, and Joe Burrow-led Bengals last season, allowing just 11.3 points per game in those contests.

If the Jets’ pass protection isn’t on-point in Week 5, the Browns will make them pay. Luckily for the Jets, pass protection is expected to be one of their greatest strengths, which should allow them to stave off the unit that Cleveland relies on to steal ugly victories.

But Garrett is a different animal. He can wreck any offensive lineman on any given Sunday. And with the arsenal of weapons around him, it’s risky to allocate too many resources toward stopping him, as it allows players like Graham and Collins to feast.

As long as Garrett is wearing an orange helmet, Cleveland can never be chalked up as an easy win.

Week 8 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have a long way to go after being outscored by 191 points in 2025. The playoffs are likely at least another season away.

But Las Vegas has improved enough to become a frisky bunch that can compete in most games. This shouldn’t be the same team that tied the Jets and Titans with a league-high nine losses by double-digits last season.

We can talk about the roster improvements, including center Tyler Linderbaum, cornerback Taron Johnson, and three new veteran linebackers. However, it’s the Raiders’ coaching change that should make the biggest overnight difference to their weekly competitiveness.

Last year’s Raiders were held back by the comical coaching duo of head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Regardless of the players on the field, Las Vegas was at a disadvantage each week because they had two fossils designing their plays. They had no shot in a division where they had to play six games against Andy Reid, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh.

But with Klint Kubiak at the helm, the Raiders will actually look like a serious NFL team, at least offensively.

It cannot be overstated how impressive a job Kubiak did with the Seattle Seahawks’ offense in 2025. He turned Sam Darnold into an efficiency juggernaut in the regular season. Then, against a trio of excellent defenses in the playoffs, Kubiak helped Darnold sustain that success, one year after Darnold looked like a deer in headlights when the playoffs arrived.

Sure, Seattle had plenty of talent, but the impact of Kubiak’s coaching was undeniable. The Seahawks rose from 18th in points per game in 2024 to third in 2025 with many of the same core players returning, and a Geno Smith-for-Sam Darnold quarterback swap that many people viewed as a wash.

Whether it’s Kirk Cousins or rookie Fernando Mendoza under center for the Raiders, Kubiak can be expected to put his quarterback in an ideal position to succeed each week. He is one of the best offensive designers in the NFL and will out-scheme the majority of defensive play-callers he faces.

Until Aaron Glenn proves himself as a play-calling head coach, Kubiak should be considered a mismatch for him. That could give Las Vegas the advantage they need to prevail in a cross-country road game against a Jets team that also finds itself in rebuilding mode.

Weeks 7 and 12 vs. Miami Dolphins

No, listing the Dolphins here does not mean they have a better team than the Jets. That isn’t the case at all.

Every NFL team has a better roster than Miami entering the 2026 season. In the first year of a completely revamped regime, the Dolphins are openly tanking. (Well, they wouldn’t use that word publicly, but their actions said as much.)

New York will likely be favored in both matchups against Miami. The reason the Dolphins shouldn’t be considered a cakewalk, though, is that no opponent can be considered a cakewalk for the Jets—not with the state of their quarterback room.

The easiest way to lose an NFL game that you “should” win is to lose the turnover battle. And with Geno Smith under center, the Jets will likely have to deal with a handful of games in which Smith gives the ball away multiple times.

Since 2022, Smith has had 17 multi-turnover games, tied with Tua Tagovailoa for the most in the NFL over that span. With those 17 games coming out of 64 starts, Smith has had a multi-turnover game in one out of every 3.8 games.

If Smith is going to have a multi-turnover game every four weeks, then one of those games could easily come in one of the two Miami matchups. A couple of untimely interceptions could be all it takes for the Jets to allow the Dolphins to steal a game.

The Jets can balance out Smith’s turnover woes if they thrive at taking the ball away defensively. They made a plethora of moves this offseason to improve in that department. But after generating just four takeaways last season, the Jets have a long way to go, so it remains to be seen how far up the leaderboard they can climb in one year.

When you have a turnover-prone starting quarterback who isn’t quite explosive enough to make up for it on his own (think Josh Allen or Brett Favre), you are prone to losing any given game, unless you have a dominant defense to make up for it.