The New York Jets’ decision to reunite with Geno Smith and tab him as their surefire starting quarterback has been met with plenty of laughs around the NFL media space.

Jets fans know that the move makes logical sense given the options at New York’s disposal. The team didn’t have any realistic avenues to land a franchise quarterback through the trade market, the free agent market, or the draft, so they added an affordable bridge quarterback who is also talented enough to potentially spearhead short-term competitiveness.

What else were the Jets supposed to do?

Yet, the acquisition continues to garner snickers from those in the media who love to use the Jets for a good laugh, rather than try to understand the vision of the franchise’s football decision-makers.

Despite all of the jeers directed at New York for Smith’s return, the reality is that Smith projects as a significant upgrade over the Jets’ last two starting quarterbacks, Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers.

In fact, if the Jets get the best version of Geno Smith, he could be their best quarterback in at least a half-decade, given that Fields and Rodgers were preceded by three years of Zach Wilson.

It raises the question: Exactly how long has it been since the Jets had a quarterback as good as the peak version of Geno?

How good is peak Geno?

Across his three-year run as the Seattle Seahawks’ starting quarterback (2022-24), featuring a large sample of 49 starts, Smith was a comfortably above-average starter in just about any meaningful metric.

Here are Smith’s ranks among the 42 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts over that span:

  • 7.4 yards per pass attempt (12th)
  • 6.28 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (19th)
  • 48.0% pass success rate (13th)
  • 95.5 passer rating (14th)
  • 0.096 adjusted EPA per play (20th)
  • 71 passing touchdowns (8th)
  • 12,226 passing yards (4th)
  • 27 wins (6th)
  • 10 fourth-quarter comebacks (2nd)

The Jets are hoping to get this version of Smith, rather than the one who led the Raiders to the first overall pick.

If the Seattle version of Smith returns, who was the last Jets quarterback to be similarly effective?

You need to go pretty far back

Rodgers and Fields were comfortably below-average for the Jets over the last two seasons. Wilson lived a lonely life in the bottom left corner of every scatter plot (the anti-Patrick Mahomes).

Before these three stooges, there was Sam Darnold.

Today, we know Darnold as a Super Bowl champion, but he struggled mightily over his three-year run with the Jets. None of his three seasons as the starter (2018-20) came close to scraping league-average quality.

The last Jets starter to flirt with league-average play was Josh McCown in 2017.

McCown had a shockingly efficient season in a year when the Jets were expected to tank. He finished with a 94.5 passer rating, good enough for 11th out of 33 qualifiers and 1.0 point shy of Smith’s 2022-24 mark in Seattle. His 0.089 adjusted EPA per play ranked 14th out of 29 qualifiers and was also just shy of Smith’s peak mark (0.096).

In terms of those efficiency metrics, McCown was nearly on par with Smith’s peak. Where Smith separates himself from McCown, though, is the volume of his production.

Smith was counted on to throw 33.7 pass attempts per game at his peak, compared to McCown’s 30.5 in 2017. As a result, Smith threw for 249.5 yards per game to McCown’s 225.1, a difference of over 27 yards per game.

Smith also took better care of the ball. While the players had near-identical touchdown-to-interception ratios, with Smith at 71:35 and McCown at 18:9, Smith was far less prone to fumbles. McCown lost four fumbles in just 13 starts during the 2017 season (5.2 per 17 games), compared to Smith’s seven lost fumbles in 49 starts (2.4 per 17 games), which is less than half as frequent.

So, McCown comes close to Smith’s peak, but not quite.

The next candidate would be 2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick, who broke (and still holds) the Jets’ single-season passing touchdown record with 31. He also remains the most recent quarterback to lead the Jets to a winning record (10-6).

That year, Fitzpatrick averaged a whopping 0.157 adjusted EPA per play, ranking ninth-best among qualifiers and comfortably surpassing Smith’s peak. He struggled with interceptions (15) and general accuracy (59.6% completion rate), but his prowess in the red zone, penchant for clutch scrambles, and elite ability to avoid sacks (league-low 3.3% sack rate) all made him a very efficient quarterback overall.

It seems we have our answer: If Geno Smith replicates his numbers as the Seahawks’ starter, he will provide the Jets with their best season of quarterbacking since 2015 Ryan Fitzpatrick.

In some areas, though, you have to go back even further to find a Jets quarterback who can match Smith’s peak capabilities.

Smith displayed incredible accuracy in Seattle, completing 68.5% of his passes, which was bested by only Joe Burrow (68.9%) and Tua Tagovailoa (69.0%) from 2022-24. If Smith posted that mark in 2026, it would be the third-best single-season completion percentage in Jets history (min. 250 attempts), trailing only Chad Pennington’s 2007 season (68.8%) and Pennington’s 2002 season (68.9%).

Smith’s clutch gene would also be a rare sight in New York. He led 10 fourth-quarter comebacks from 2022-24, including four apiece in 2023 and 2024. The Jets’ single-season record is five, held by Vinny Testaverde in 2001. Three quarterbacks are tied for second with four: 1966 Joe Namath, 2000 Testaverde, and 2011 Mark Sanchez.

No quarterback in Jets history has ever had a season with a completion percentage above 60% and at least four fourth-quarter comebacks, something Smith did in back-to-back years from 2023 to 2024.

The major question for New York is whether Smith is actually capable of replicating his Seattle numbers. His numbers took a steep nosedive in Las Vegas last season. The Jets hope that the slide will ultimately be chalked up to Smith’s surroundings, and that his new environment will be strong enough to support a return to his peak capabilities.

But Smith will be 36 years old this season. It’s entirely possible that the 2025 season was the beginning of his inevitable decline, and that a new home won’t do anything to stop it.

Only time will tell. What we know is this: The Jets have a quarterback who spent three of the last four seasons playing at a level that Jets fans haven’t seen since 2015—the last time their team had a winning record. So, if the Jets can somehow get him to return to that level, a fun season could be in store.