The absolute best free agency value plays for the Jets

Plenty of value is there to be had at positions of dire need for the Jets, Nania's Numbers explains. The free agency period is drawing near, and once again, the New York Jets are set to be major players for the biggest names on the market. If history is any indication, the Jets will certainly come out of March having added a star or two. Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Trumaine Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley---luring in top-tier targets has not been an issue. The real problem for the Jets has been finding value. Altogether, the aforementioned players have combined to shave $99.5 million off the Jets' cap sheet over the course of their tenures with the team. Their combined performance on the field has not come close to being worth that much dough. Even if their lack of productivity has been due to injury (Mosley) or a poor supporting cast (Bell), the sheer fact of the matter is that the Jets have invested significant chunks of their cap room into players who have not given them star-level impact. That plays a huge role in creating a lack of depth and talent across the roster, thus leading to mediocrity. One year ago, the seventh-largest contract that the Jets handed out went to former Atlanta Falcons cornerback Brian Poole---a measly one-year, $3 million pact. It was one of the least-heralded moves that the Jets made in the entire offseason. Josh Bellamy ($5M), Ryan Kalil ($8.4M) and Henry Anderson ($25.2M) each received significantly larger deals. As it turned out, Poole was arguably the second-best player on the Jets (behind Jamal Adams) in 2019. Poole was the stingiest slot cornerback in football, allowing a league-low 0.57 yards per cover snap out of the slot. That right there is the definition of "bang for your buck." Those are the kinds of signings that win free agency. Teams need to find diamonds in the rough who can produce at a low cost, leaving cap space open for other holes to be filled. It is easier said than done to find players who can produce at an average-or-better level off the scrap-heap, but there are particular traits that signal an overlooked player has the potential to perform at a higher level in the future. For Poole, it was his durability, rawness (just three years of NFL experience), history of solid production (which made his low cost a surprise), and fit in Gregg Williams' scheme. Here are some impending free agents at positions of need for the Jets that have the potential to be their next Brian Poole. Tajae Sharpe, WR, Tennessee Titans Sharpe (25.2 years old, 6-foot-2, 194 pounds) was seldom-used in Tennessee this past season, averaging just 1.7 receptions for 21.9 yards per game, but it is his incredible efficiency that makes him an intriguing bargain-bin option. Sharpe averaged 9.4 yards per target, which ranked in the 84th percentile among qualified wide receivers. His 72.2 overall Pro Football Focus grade ranked in the 70th percentile at the position. Soft hands were a big reason for Sharpe's efficiency in 2019. He recorded 26 receptions without a single drop in 2019. Over his career, Sharpe has dropped only four passes against 93 receptions (4.1% drop rate). When the Titans looked Sharpe's way, they found success on an incredibly consistent basis. Over his 35 regular season targets, Sharpe delivered 20 first downs (57.1% rate, versus league average of 34.7%), including four touchdowns (11.4% rate, versus league average of 4.5%). According to Sharp Football Stats (no pun intended), Sharpe recorded a successful play rate of 58% that ranked 22nd out of 116 qualified receivers. Sharpe was not nearly as efficient over his first two seasons, averaging a mediocre 6.4 yards per target. It is also concerning that he has produced at an extremely low volume over his career (24.8 yards per game), likely a sign he struggles with route-running. However, he still was a good chain-mover when thrown to. Sharpe's first down rate was a solid 37.9% even prior to his explosive 2019 season. Sharpe is certainly not a starting option. However, if the Jets are looking for a cheap, young replacement for Demaryius Thomas' 2019 role, Sharpe is a terrific target. His outstanding per-play production in 2019 is worth taking a chance on. Mario Addison, EDGE, Carolina Panthers It was recently reported that Addison (32.5 years old, 6-foot-3, 260 pounds) is expected to test the open market. He is getting up there in age after nine years in the league, but he still has a lot to offer to pass-rush-needy teams. In 2019, Addison logged an official total of 9.5 sacks and created 43 total pressures (11 sacks, 6 hits, 32 hurries), which tied for 33rd-most among edge defenders. His pass-rush productivity (per-snap pressure rate with a greater weight to sacks) rate of 7.3 placed him in the 67th percentile at his position. He has ranked top-32 in the stat for five consecutive seasons (out of 100-plus qualifiers in each season). Despite his age, Addison offers a reliable track record of durability. Since 2013, he has played in 114 out of 119 possible regular season and playoff games. He missed one game in 2019 due to a personal matter, but has not missed a game due to injury since 2016. The Jets have desperately needed more pass-rushing juice off the edge for a long time, but they might have to kick that can down the road for yet another year with the offensive line appearing to be priority No. 1 this offseason. They are not as flush with cap space this season as they have been in the past, with $49.4M in space before any moves (14th-most in the league), so there might not be room for a premier addition at EDGE after splurging on an O-lineman. It also appears that they will be emphasizing the offensive line early in the draft, so EDGE could be ignored until a later round. Should all of that turn out to be the case, Joe Douglas will need to find a way to patch that hole up for one year. Addison fits the bill perfectly, offering experience, durability, and a long-running active streak of efficient production. Ereck Flowers, G, Washington Redskins Don't laugh. This idea makes more sense than you might think. Lend an ear. Yes, Flowers (25.8 years old, 6-foot-6, 334 pounds) was terrible at left tackle during his four years with the New York Giants and a short stint with the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, after moving to left guard with the Redskins this past season, Flowers may have revitalized his career. In 2019, Flowers ranked in the 62nd percentile among guards in overall PFF grade, checking in at the 55th percentile in pass protection and the 52nd percentile as a run-blocker. Flowers began to look even more comfortable as he settled into the position. From Weeks 11-17 (following Washington's bye week), Flowers earned the 11th-best overall grade out of 59 qualified guards and committed only one penalty. Flowers is also one of the youngest and most durable offensive linemen on the market. Among the 29 impending free-agent linemen who played at least 40% of their team's offensive snaps in 2019, Flowers is the sixth-youngest and is tied for the seventh-highest portion of career regular-season games played (93.8%). It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Jets will be going hard after a big-ticket free agent guard. Detroit's Graham Glasgow and New England's Joe Thuney appear to be the prime targets. While the Jets may be able to snag one of them, landing both is a pipe dream. On the opposite side of a potential free-agent signing, the Jets will need to get creative. They could stick with the under-contract Brian Winters, who is better than most other logical options, but he would offer $7.3M in savings if cut. Given that Winters is not nearly good enough (his average percentile rank in overall PFF grade among qualified guards is 40.2 over the last three seasons) or durable enough (average of 3.3 missed games per season over career) to be worth the 18th-largest cap hit among guards, cutting him seems to be the right move. However, if the Jets move on from Winters, they will not have many options at the other guard spot. Bringing back Alex Lewis is an option, but he is even more dreadful (23rd percentile in overall grade) and frail (9.3 missed games per season) than Winters. The only other guard currently under contract is Ben Braden, a 2017 undrafted free agent who has never played a regular-season game. That brings us back to Flowers. On the opposite side of a first-tier free agent signing, the Jets should look to secure Flowers on a second-tier deal (as a ballpark guess, perhaps the $7-9 million range) that is light on guarantees beyond the first year. Younger, more durable, and boasting a better statistical resume than any other viable option, Flowers would be a solid hole-plugger while the Jets scour the late rounds for a long-term answer. There is certainly some contract-year risk with Flowers (players who give their best the year before hitting free agency and falter after getting paid), but that is why he is not a first-tier player. Obviously, if Flowers' price gets out of control, the Jets should steer clear. He wouldn't be a positive value pickup at that point. At an affordable cost, Flowers makes a lot of sense for the Jets while the youngsters are groomed. But on a lucrative deal? Teams need to hang up the phone at that point. That is what free agency is all about - drawing a line in the sand and sticking to it. Spending wisely Value wins free agency. Identify players who are better fits in your scheme than anybody else's. Take gambles on formerly strong producers who are recovering from an injury. Look for high-efficiency, low-volume role players and see if they can extrapolate that production to a larger sample. Give a second chance to a player coming off of a down year. Salvage a diamond in the rough that the rest of the league is undervaluing. Pick up veterans who legitimately have gas left in their tanks. Championship teams are loaded with these types of players.