Possible progression arcs for New York Jets WR Denzel Mims

Nania's Numbers looks at a few different examples of long-term progression curves that New York Jets wide receiver Denzel Mims could follow. Undoubtedly, the New York Jets and their fans alike are hoping that Baylor legend Denzel Mims can walk straight through the door and prove to be Sam Darnold's electric No. 1 target the moment he takes his first step on the practice field in Florham Park. That would be sublime for all parties, and Mims certainly has the talent to make it happen. The harsh reality is that things just do not pan out that quickly for everyone. Of the 88 wide receivers selected in the second round from 2000-19, just 13 averaged over 50 receiving yards per game as a rookie (14.8%). The average second-round wide receiver over the past two decades has caught 30.1 passes for 402.3 yards and 2.6 touchdowns in his rookie season. A growth curve is to be expected. History tells us there is an approximately 85% chance that Mims is going to average under 50 yards per game this year. After going into what Mims' production could look like if he lands in that top-15%, today's breakdown will go into the best career models for Mims to follow should he fall into the bottom-85%. Low-volume, high-efficiency rookie season promising a sophomore breakout - Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions) Kenny Golladay was the 96th overall pick in the third round of the 2017 Draft coming out of Northern Illinois. He enjoyed a highly productive collegiate career, but faced the skepticism that all players coming out of small schools deal with. After two years at North Dakota, Golladay redshirted his true junior season and finished out his final two years with Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference. The Chicago native dominated to the tune of 160 receptions for 2,285 yards and 18 touchdowns over 26 games. As a rookie in Detroit, Golladay had the luxury of easing into the league with veteran wideouts Golden Tate and Marvin Jones headlining the depth chart. Still, Golladay impressed enough to carve out an early role in the offense. He ranked fifth on the team among all players and third among wide receivers with 4.4 targets per game. Efficiency is the key for any rookie. Opportunities may be hard to come by early on - there are veterans to surpass and nuances of the scheme to hammer down - but if a young player makes the most of each opportunity he does get, it is a strong hint that he has a good chance of becoming a star once his role expands. Golladay hinted at his future breakout through the excellent level of efficiency at which he produced with his small diet of targets as a rookie. Golladay caught 28 of his 48 targets for 477 yards, ranking sixth out of 96 qualified wide receivers league-wide (40+ targets) with 9.9 yards per target. Matthew Stafford had a 103.5 passer rating when targeting Golladay. In addition to his overall efficiency, Golladay exemplified another key element of a successful rookie year - in-season progression. Golladay missed five contests early in the season with a hamstring injury (games 4-8), but improved mightily upon returning. From Weeks 1-3, Golladay caught seven of 15 targets for 102 yards (6.8 per target). Over his final eight games post-injury, Golladay grabbed 21 of 33 targets for 375 yards (11.4 per target). The Lions had Golladay on the field for 87.9% of the offensive snaps on average over the final four weeks after he hovered around 63.1% prior (excluding his first game back from injury, in which he was limited). Golladay built off of his rookie success and broke out in 2018. He led Detroit with 70 receptions, 119 targets, 1,063 receiving yards, 55 receiving first downs, and five receiving touchdowns. His success contributed to the Lions feeling comfortable with trading Tate to Philadelphia for a third-round pick. Golladay kept the fire burning in 2019 with 65 grabs on 116 targets for 1,190 yards, 52 first downs, and a league-leading 11 touchdowns. He is 11th in receiving yards (2,253) and seventh in receiving touchdowns (16) over the last two years. The two key points hit by Golladay were efficiency and progression. Even if Mims does not dominate in his rookie season, he can set himself up to do so in 2021 and beyond with steady improvement throughout the season and efficient per-play performance overall. Steady year-over-year progression towards stardom - Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Taken 12 picks before Golladay in the same 2017 Draft was Penn State product Chris Godwin. The Philadelphia native played in all 39 games for the Nittany Lions throughout his freshman, sophomore, and junior seasons, producing 59 catches for 982 yards and 11 scores as a junior before entering the draft. Godwin entered a Buccaneers offense that was among the deepest in football. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Adam Humphries spearheaded the wide receiver depth chart, while Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard demanded targets at tight end. Despite the competition, Godwin eventually carved out a small role in his rookie season. The Buccaneers looked Godwin's way for 3.4 targets per game, making him the team's No. 4 wide receiver and No. 5 target overall. He appeared in all 16 games, playing a rotational role as he participated in 41.0% of the team's offensive snaps. Godwin checked the same boxes that Golladay did. On the whole, his efficiency was terrific. Godwin secured 34 of 55 targets for 525 yards, ranking eighth out of 86 qualified wide receivers with 9.6 yards per target. He was also a chain-moving machine, with 27 first downs on 55 targets for a 49.1% rate (2017 league average: 33.9%). The "progression" box was also checked by Godwin. Godwin was barely used over his first eight games, playing 25.4% of the offensive snaps on average and seeing 1.5 targets per game. In the second half, Godwin played 55.6% of the offensive snaps on average and was targeted 5.4 times per game, averaging 55.3 yards on 10.3 per target. It is in Year 2 where Godwin and Golladay's paths diverge. Golladay leaped directly to No. 1 status in his second season. Godwin's career arc has been more methodical. His role increased in Year 2, and he thrived with the added opportunities, but Tampa Bay had yet to employ him as a top option. That did not happen until Year 3, in which Godwin again built upon his success from the prior season and became one of the best wide receivers in the game. In 2018, Godwin ranked third on the Buccaneers in targets with 95. He grabbed 59 of those for 842 yards and seven touchdowns, maintaining an efficient average of 8.9 yards per target and elevating his first down rate to an absurd 50.5%, with 48 chain-moving grabs in total. Humphries and Jackson headed elsewhere following the 2018 season, and Godwin finally got his chance to shine in 2019. Over 14 games, Godwin grabbed 86 of 121 targets for 1,333 yards, 63 first downs, and nine touchdowns. Here are some of his achievements this past season: 95.2 receiving yards per game, 2nd-most behind Michael Thomas Improved first down rate again to an unbelievable 52.1%, tops among the 127 players at any position with at least 50 targets 11.0 yards per target, ninth-most ever by a player with 100+ targets since the stat was first tracked in 1992 Godwin flashed the same principles of promise as Golladay (efficiency and in-season progression). He just had a steadier climb up the totem pole - which makes sense considering Golladay is about two years older than Godwin. For Mims, I think Golladay would be the more likely path. The Jets do not have someone like Evans that Mims would have to compete against for the throne. Once Mims is ready to take over, he should be able to seize the role of "No. 1 option" without much of a fight, barring a major veteran addition. Meteoric rise from potential bust to star - D.J. Chark (Jacksonville Jaguars) D.J. Chark's path does not follow any of the rules established above. He is simply an example of just how different a player can look in his second season compared to his first. Chark was taken 61st overall by the Jaguars in the second round of the 2018 Draft. His rookie year was extremely disappointing. He caught 14 of 32 targets for 174 yards, six first downs, and zero touchdowns. Here are some numbers showcasing how bad that is: 18.8% first down rate was worst in the NFL among 119 wide receivers with 30+ targets 5.4 yards per target ranked 111th of 119 3rd-most targets by a wide receiver without scoring a touchdown The Jaguars tried to get Chark more involved later in the season, playing him for 61.9% of offensive snaps on average during a three-game stretch from Weeks 8-11 (his average portion prior to that was 31.6%). Chark responded with six catches on 12 targets for 56 yards (4.7 per target) over those three games. Chark would miss five games with a quadriceps injury late in the season, returning to post his fifth zero-yard game of the season in Week 17. It was a brutal debut campaign for the LSU product. He had not shown anything to inspire confidence going into 2019. Regardless, Chark came out in his second season and proved himself to be one of the league's most improved players from the get-go. Chark posted 146 yards in Week 1 alone, already coming within 28 yards of his entire rookie season total. That was a sign of things to come. Chark finished the 2019 season with 73 grabs on 118 targets for 1,008 yards, 42 first downs, and eight touchdowns. The lesson here? Being a rookie is tough. Generally, the rookie version of a player looks nothing like what he will ultimately become. The leap from Year 1 to Year 2 tends to be the largest that any player takes. So, if Mims starts out the way Chark did, go ahead and feel disappointed, angry, bamboozled, or any other negative emotion of your choosing - just do not close the book on his career after one season.