Breshad Perriman is the favorite to be Adam Gase’s top outside wide receiver – what will his 2020 numbers look like?
Breshad Perriman may be the most polarizing player on the Jets roster. Doubters will point to his first 75 regular season weeks in the league, in which he posted ugly averages of 22.9 yards per game and 6.7 yards per target over 46 appearances while missing 29 games. Optimists will point to Perriman’s most recent five weeks, in which he averaged 101.2 yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 13.7 yards per target while finally getting the chance to be a No. 1 option.
Let’s take a look at both sides of the coin to project where Perriman’s numbers will fall in 2020.
Optimistic projection
Perriman had seldom shown anything resembling a starter-caliber ceiling throughout his career, but that all changed when the 2019 calendar flipped to December. His electric finish to the 2019 season flashed the superstar potential that made him a first-round pick back in 2015.
From Weeks 13-17, Perriman saw his role in Tampa Bay’s offense elevated as the Buccaneers dealt with injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The spotlight brought the best out of him. He was tremendously efficient with his increased volume of targets after struggling mightily in his supporting role.
*Perriman was injured after only five snaps in Week 4 – his stats from that game are excluded.
Over his final five games, Perriman produced at a level that would put him on pace for 80 catches, 1,619 yards, and 16 touchdowns over 16 games.
Obviously, it’s a stretch to expect Perriman to put up those numbers over a full season with the Jets. Perhaps if everything clicks – and I mean absolutely everything – there could be a sliver of potential for Perriman to have a season somewhat close to that productive. It is extremely unlikely, though.
Let’s bring Perriman’s ceiling down to a more realistic level by including his entire 2019 season. His finish to the year was so explosive that his season-long numbers are solid despite the fact that his best stretch made up only five of his 14 games.
It seems likely that Perriman will see a similar slice of the target pie that Robby Anderson had. Here are some totals Perriman would accumulate if we extrapolated his 2019 efficiency over Anderson’s 2019 volume of opportunities.
Perriman was slightly more efficient than Anderson. If Perriman maintains the same level of efficiency he generated in 2019 and is used at about the same frequency as Anderson was, he will likely top Anderson’s production by a small amount.
So, based on those numbers, here’s what a reasonable ceiling for Perriman could look like.
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After Perriman, Mims, Crowder, Smith and Berrios, who do you think our 6th receiver will be? Doctson or one of the undrafted rookies?
I’m leaning towards Doctson but wouldn’t rule out one of the UDFA pickups. I’m not as high on Cager and Campbell as many others are – they do have incredible big-play upside, but they are redshirt seniors who barely produced at all in 5 years – but they will definitely have every shot to make the team given the lack of depth.
I think it will be Doctson, I don’t expect much from him but he’s probably #4 of the bunch in terms of raw talent, is still young, and he has at least logged a lot of reps in the league (well, compared to his competitors). So he’s my pick. But he could easily flop and fizzle out as he did in Washington.
Agreed on Smith/Berrios making the team, they’re certainly not locks but I think they’re pretty close, and their return game value is a huge plus (especially vs. the other competitors). Love Berrios as PR and Smith as KR, and excited about Smith’s speed continuing to be featured in a gadget/WR4 role.
Also would not rule out the possibility of them deciding on bringing back Demaryius Thomas.
Any faith in Vycent Smith’s development and potential for next season? Getting a Preston Williams like production would be nice. Has the physical tools to succeed.
He’s intriguing physically! Showed some legitimate speed with the ball in his hands. I’m skeptical that he can develop an all-around game but he’s only going into Year 3 so can’t rule it out. I think he’s going to slide in as the WR4 and be the primary gadget player (as he was last year), end-arounds, bubble screens, and such. He ranked at the 89th percentile in YAC per reception among WRs last year. I think he’ll be the kick returner as well, did nicely there last year save for the one fumble