Breshad Perriman is the favorite to be Adam Gase’s top outside wide receiver – what will his 2020 numbers look like?
Breshad Perriman may be the most polarizing player on the Jets roster. Doubters will point to his first 75 regular season weeks in the league, in which he posted ugly averages of 22.9 yards per game and 6.7 yards per target over 46 appearances while missing 29 games. Optimists will point to Perriman’s most recent five weeks, in which he averaged 101.2 yards per game (2nd in NFL) and 13.7 yards per target while finally getting the chance to be a No. 1 option.
Let’s take a look at both sides of the coin to project where Perriman’s numbers will fall in 2020.
Perriman had seldom shown anything resembling a starter-caliber ceiling throughout his career, but that all changed when the 2019 calendar flipped to December. His electric finish to the 2019 season flashed the superstar potential that made him a first-round pick back in 2015.
From Weeks 13-17, Perriman saw his role in Tampa Bay’s offense elevated as the Buccaneers dealt with injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The spotlight brought the best out of him. He was tremendously efficient with his increased volume of targets after struggling mightily in his supporting role.
*Perriman was injured after only five snaps in Week 4 – his stats from that game are excluded.
Over his final five games, Perriman produced at a level that would put him on pace for 80 catches, 1,619 yards, and 16 touchdowns over 16 games.
Obviously, it’s a stretch to expect Perriman to put up those numbers over a full season with the Jets. Perhaps if everything clicks – and I mean absolutely everything – there could be a sliver of potential for Perriman to have a season somewhat close to that productive. It is extremely unlikely, though.
Let’s bring Perriman’s ceiling down to a more realistic level by including his entire 2019 season. His finish to the year was so explosive that his season-long numbers are solid despite the fact that his best stretch made up only five of his 14 games.
It seems likely that Perriman will see a similar slice of the target pie that Robby Anderson had. Here are some totals Perriman would accumulate if we extrapolated his 2019 efficiency over Anderson’s 2019 volume of opportunities.
Perriman was slightly more efficient than Anderson. If Perriman maintains the same level of efficiency he generated in 2019 and is used at about the same frequency as Anderson was, he will likely top Anderson’s production by a small amount.
So, based on those numbers, here’s what a reasonable ceiling for Perriman could look like.