New York Jets free agent profile: Tennessee Titans TE Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith would have the potential to break out in a New York Jets offense that would feature him heavily and maximize his YAC ability. Positives After-the-catch ability Standing at six-foot-three and 248 pounds while running a 4.62 forty (83rd percentile at TE) and posting a 38-inch vertical jump (93rd percentile) in addition to a 127-inch broad jump (95th percentile), Smith is the complete package as an athlete and has used those tools to become a great after-the-catch producer. Smith averaged 5.8 yards after catch per reception in 2020 (via Pro Football Focus), ranking fifth-best among the 34 tight ends with at least 40 targets. That mark wasn't even the norm for Smith - his career average is almost a full yard higher at 6.7. Smith ranked second among qualifiers at the position with 8.1 yards after catch per reception in 2019. Most impressively, Smith's after-the-catch production is not merely a product of being placed in favorable situations. He creates more than what is presented to him. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Smith averaged 1.4 more yards after catch versus expectation in 2020, third-best among tight ends behind only Tyler Higbee and George Kittle. In 2019, he led tight ends with a whopping +3.8 yards after catch per reception versus expectation. Hands Over the past two seasons, Smith recorded 76 receptions while dropping only three passes, giving him an excellent drop rate of 3.8%. The 2020 average for tight ends was 6.2%. Red zone Smith tied for fifth in the NFL with eight touchdown receptions in the red zone, which also ranked second among tight ends (Travis Kelce led with 10). He was hyper-efficient, pulling in those eight scores across 18 red zone targets, a 44.4% rate that squashes the 2020 league average of 27.1%. For his career, Smith has scored on 12 of his 32 red zone targets, a 37.5% rate. Contested catches Throughout his career, Smith has hauled in 20 of 40 "contested" targets, as tracked by PFF. That 50.0% rate slightly edges the 2020 average for tight ends (48.2%). He's been trusted to make those catches at a high frequency: 23.7% of Smith's career targets have been considered contested, much higher than the 2020 positional average of 18.4%. In 2020, 29.2% of Smith's targets were contested, the third-highest rate among qualified tight ends (trailing Tyler Eifert and Mike Gesicki). Overall per-play efficiency Smith's production on a per-play basis suggests he is poised to become a star if given more opportunities. In 2020, Smith ranked 25th among tight ends in routes run (300) but 20th in receiving yards (448), placing at the position's 76th percentile in yards per route run (1.49). In 2019, Smith ranked 19th in receiving yards (439) despite running the 33rd-most routes (240), ranking at the 89th percentile with 1.83 yards per route run. From 2018-20, Smith averaged 8.2 yards per target, ninth-best among the 38 tight ends with at least 100 targets over that span. He placed sixth among the group with 14 touchdowns despite landing at 26th with 139 targets, leading the pack with a touchdown on 10.1% of his targets. Age and durability Smith will turn 26 years old in August. He is the youngest impending free agent tight end among the 28 who played at least 200 snaps last year. Throughout his career, Smith has played in 66 out of 70 (94.3%) possible regular season and playoff games for the Titans. He missed one game with a knee injury in 2020 and did not miss any games in 2019 or 2017. In 2018, Smith was placed on injured reserve for the final three weeks of the season due to another knee injury. Negatives Pass protection Smith has given up 25 pressures over 247 career snaps in pass protection, a rate of 10.1% that is well above the 2020 positional average (6.9%). He gave up six pressures over 53 protection snaps in 2020 (11.3% rate). Interestingly enough, the Titans still used Smith as a pass blocker relatively frequently despite his struggles in that area. Smith stayed in to pass block on 13.9% of his passing game snaps in 2020, ranking eighth-highest out of the 34 tight ends with 40+ targets. In 2019, Smith ranked second as he pass-blocked on 21.6% of his passing game snaps. Smith's new team would be wise to decrease his playing time as a pass protector and focus on getting him as many pass-catching reps as possible. Run blocking Smith participated in a run-heavy Titans offense that thrived at running the ball outside behind Derrick Henry, but his individual run blocking grades at PFF have never been very good: 2020: 61.4 run blocking grade (49th percentile among TEs with 100+ blocking snaps) 2019: 52.4 run blocking grade (36th percentile) 2018: 56.8 run blocking grade (35th percentile) 2017: 57.0 run blocking grade (30th percentile) Playoff struggles Over six career playoff games, Smith has caught just 11 of 17 targets for only 87 yards and one touchdown, averaging a measly 14.5 yards per game on 5.1 yards per target. In the 2020 Wild Card loss to Baltimore, Smith caught 2-of-3 targets for 9 yards and no first downs. Lack of high-end production While Smith's per-play efficiency suggests he should have a good chance of becoming a top 5-10 tight end with more opportunities, that's all just projection. We haven't seen him do that yet. Smith has ranked no higher than 19th among tight ends in receiving yards in a given season. His unremarkable numbers of 448 yards and 29.9 yards per game in 2020 were career-highs. He has not had a 100-yard game in his career and has only had nine games in which he was targeted 6+ times. This isn't a major problem - Smith simply has not gotten the chance to be a fantasy football legend in Tennessee's run-first offense that also favors the wide receivers in the passing game - but it is worth noting that Smith's new team will be paying the big bucks in hopes that he can extrapolate his efficiency without anything to go off of that guarantees he is capable of doing so. Film Smith does a great job of maximizing his leaping ability, consistently timing his jump well and stabbing the ball at its highest point. Here, he runs up the seam with a free release and pulls in a tough one from Ryan Tannehill while being sandwiched by the outside corner and single-high safety. Smith had one of the most memorable playoff touchdowns in recent memory against the Ravens in the 2019 Divisional Round, powering past Brandon Carr on the out-and-up before making an unreal one-handed circus grab. Here's a fantastic look at what Smith can do with the ball in his hands. Jets fans will be reminded of Quincy Enunwa. Smith catches the ball on a drag route, puts on the brakes to shake one tackler, redirects upfield, and churns through traffic as he hits top gear and sprints his way to a massive gain. Smith blocks-and-releases on the right edge and shows off more elusiveness as he changes directions to force a diving attempt by the defensive back that he is able to run through with ease. Contract estimate Spotrac projects Smith's market value at about $8 million per year. That would tie Smith with Jimmy Graham for the seventh-highest average annual value among tight ends. If teams truly believe in Smith's potential, he certainly could hit that mark, but at first glance, $8 million per year does seem a bit high for a player who has never averaged 30 yards per game. Last year, Austin Hooper of the Falcons earned $10.5 million per year from the Browns (4 years, $42M, $23M guaranteed) after a season in which he averaged 60.5 yards per game, more than double Smith's career-best. A mere $2.5 million drop-off for less than half of the yardage production seems a little far-fetched. Further adding to the idea that $8 million may be too high for Smith, the Rams' Tyler Higbee signed a four-year extension prior to the 2020 season worth $29 million ($7.3 per year) with $15.5 million guaranteed after averaging 48.9 yards per game in 2019, including a run of five straight games with 84+ yards to close the season. Smith has never surpassed 84 yards in a game. With that in mind, it would be odd for him to fetch a more lucrative deal than Higbee. Smith is going to be 26 years old this season and just averaged 29.9 yards per game. There were a couple of comparable players on the market in 2019. Pittsburgh's Jesse James signed with the Lions for $5.7 million per year (4 years, $22.6M, $10.5M guaranteed) after averaging 26.4 yards per game as he was heading into his age-25 season. Cincinnati's C.J. Uzomah re-signed with the Bengals for $6.1 million per year (3 years, $18.3M, $6.3M guaranteed) after averaging 27.4 yards per game as he was heading into his age-26 season. Perhaps those players serve as better comparisons for Smith. However, it has to be taken into account that Smith probably does offer more upside than James and Uzomah did. Smith scored eight touchdowns in his contract year while James had scored two and Uzomah had scored three in their contract years. He is also a far better YAC producer and far more efficient on a per-play basis than both players. Complicating the comparisons even more, back in 2019, Cincinnati's Tyler Kroft signed a three-year, $18.8 million deal ($6.3M per year, $9.1M total guarantees) with the Bills after playing only five games and averaging 7.2 yards in them. His career-high was 25.3 yards per game and his career average was 13.0. How the heck did he get that deal? Projecting Smith's value is tough. He's certainly a more valuable player than guys like James, Kroft, and Uzomah, who landed in the $6 million range, but he has not been nearly as productive as guys like Higbee and Hooper who landed in the $7-10 million range. The recent history of tight end contracts is loaded with players who were both overpaid and underpaid, so fielding a reliable comparison is tough. At the least, it seems like a guarantee that Smith will fetch around $6 million per year. How much higher he goes will depend on how many teams have interest and how certain they feel about his odds of extrapolating his efficiency at a higher volume of opportunities. Projecting Jets' pursuit Considering the importance of the tight end in San Francisco's offense during Mike LaFleur's tenure there, it seems like a fair bet that the Jets will place a premium on the position going forward, but it's anybody's guess as to what changes LaFleur will make compared to his background when crafting his own philosophy. Maybe the tight ends will still be key, maybe they won't. Time will tell. The Jets have Chris Herndon under contract, but they're mighty thin on receiving talent beyond him with only Ryan Griffin and Trevon Wesco (who combined for 91 yards in 2020) under contract. Herndon certainly has some intriguing upside based on his standout 2018 rookie season, but after a disastrous 2020 campaign (even considering his short-but-improved finish), he cannot be considered an answer at the position. If the Jets do want to feature their tight ends heavily in the passing game, they will need to make a big addition to the group. Smith is a great fit. His after-the-catch ability should shine in an offense that thrives upon putting play-makers in favorable positions to make magic happen with the ball in space - just look at what the 49ers did with George Kittle. Whether or not the Jets chase Smith will all come down to how much LaFleur plans on valuing the tight end spot. If it's a back-burner priority for him, it wouldn't be wise to allocate significant cap space on the position. However, if LaFleur does want a tight end who can be among the team's most relied-upon targets, Smith is a fantastic option who has a good chance of being worth a hefty deal thanks to his efficiency and shoo-in fit in the offense.