New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens prop bets: Bet on offense
The New York Jets (+6.5 per FanDuel Sportsbook) are preparing to host the Baltimore Ravens in their home and season opener this Sunday at MetLife Stadium.
Alternate total points: Over 52.5 (+250)
FanDuel has the over-under for this game set at 44.5, but I see the scoring going significantly above that number. For that reason, I’d feel confident about taking an alternate total to grab some more rewarding odds.
Baltimore’s offense is a major mismatch for New York’s defense. The Ravens’ elite gap-blocking run game is perfectly constructed to exploit the Jets’ aggressive defensive line. Plus, tight end Mark Andrews will be an enormous problem for a Jets defense that has question marks at linebacker and safety.
Over 10 September games in his career, quarterback Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens to 30.8 points per game. In three season openers, Jackson has led the Ravens to 41.3 points per game, going for 59, 38, and 27 points.
I see Baltimore scoring somewhere around 30 points in this game. If the Ravens land in that region, then all the Jets offense has to do is score somewhere in the mid-twenties to push the total over 52.5 – and I think they will do it.
The Jets’ tight ends and running backs figure to be a mismatch in the passing game for the Ravens’ linebackers and safeties. Tight end Tyler Conklin and running back Breece Hall, in particular, should have great chances to do damage against linebacker Patrick Queen and strong safety Chuck Clark; two Ravens starters who had trouble in coverage last year.
Plus, the Ravens have a group of aggressive cornerbacks who excel at taking the ball away but need to gamble to do it, leaving themselves vulnerable to getting beat over the top. Against a Jets team with shifty route-runners like Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson, opportunities for explosive plays will be there.
If you’re interested in taking the over on an alternate points total other than 52.5, here are some of the other options listed at FanDuel:
- Over 46.5 (+110)
- Over 48.5 (+155)
- Over 50.5 (+190)
- Over 52.5 (+250)
- Over 54.5 (+310)
- Over 56.5 (+390)
- Over 58.5 (+500)
First touchdown scorer: Braxton Berrios (+2600)
FanDuel has Braxton Berrios listed as the 16th-most likely player to score the first touchdown in this game with +2600 odds. You have to love the value here.
The majority of touchdowns are scored in the red zone, so when trying to pinpoint who will be the first touchdown scorer of a game, you want somebody who is a threat in that part of the field. Berrios is much better than the 16th-best red-zone threat in this game, making him an enticing play.
Berrios became a primary red-zone option for the Jets at the end of 2021. Over his final 3 games, Berrios scored 3 touchdowns from scrimmage and all of them came from within 10 yards of the end zone. He very nearly scored two more red-zone touchdowns during that stretch, as he had one reception stopped at the 1-yard line and another stopped at the 2-yard line.
Berrios’s red-zone opportunity volume was also enticing. From Weeks 14-17, Berrios led the Jets with 5 red-zone targets (more than double any other Jet) while also getting 2 red-zone rush attempts (both resulting in touchdowns).
On the year, Berrios tied for second on the team with four red zone touchdowns, trailing only Elijah Moore’s five. Moore ranks sixth with +1400 odds on this prop, so, once again, it’s the value that stands out here with Berrios. His +2600 odds imply there is a 26-to-1 chance he is this game’s first touchdown scorer, whereas I believe the evidence suggests his chances are much better than that.
Next Article: The NY Jets have a clear path to upsetting Ravens
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