The top plays that determined New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens
If you looked at the box score before looking at the actual score, you would have believed the New York Jets defeated the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. New York outperformed Baltimore in a few key categories, including total yards (378 to 274) and total first downs (24 to 13).
Much of this game was neck-and-neck. There were just a handful of big momentum-changers that turned the tide on the scoreboard, and all of them went in the Ravens’ favor.
And that is the primary key that the Jets must improve going forward: they must find a way to turn the big-play differential in their favor.
The Jets were competitive with the Ravens on a down-to-down basis, but they made killer mistakes while the Ravens did not, and the Ravens hit game-altering home runs when they needed to while the Jets were relegated to hitting singles throughout the afternoon.
With this in mind, it’s worth taking a look back at the game to see which specific plays were the biggest momentum-swingers in Baltimore’s favor. By identifying these plays, we can learn about the particular issues that the Jets must clean up to improve their big-play differential going forward.
In each game, NFL Next Gen Stats estimates the win probability for both teams at every point of the game.
Based on this metric, here are the five plays from Jets-Ravens that had the largest negative impact on the Jets’ win probability.
5. (Q3, 7:20, BAL 10-NYJ 3) 3rd and 10 at NYJ 17. Lamar Jackson pass deep middle to Devin Duvernay for 17 yards, TD.
- Win probability before: 11%
- Win probability after: 7%
- Differential: -4%
Lamar Jackson ➡️ Devin Duvernay for the 17-yard TD.
Duvernay had two total receiving touchdowns in 2021. He just hauled in his second TD today #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/jLZDrrc4ph
— Rocco DiSangro (@RoccoDiSangro) September 11, 2022
This one was a dagger for the Jets.
Starting a drive on their own side of the field after a 20-yard Braden Mann shank, the Ravens drove into the red zone. But the Jets forced the Ravens into a 3rd & 10 situation on the 17-yard line after a pair of run stuffs by Michael Carter II and John Franklin-Myers. If the Jets could hold the Ravens to a field goal, they’d keep the margin at just 10 points.
Instead, Devin Duvernay beat Jordan Whitehead for a 17-yard touchdown. Lamar Jackson evaded pressure from Carl Lawson and delivered a great throw. Baltimore extended its lead to 14 points.
The Jets were all but buried when considering the quality of the opponent and the offense’s ineptitude to this point of the game. Their win probability dropped to 7%.
4. (Q1, 14:01, BAL 0-NYJ 0) 3rd and 5 at NYJ 46. Joe Flacco pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NYJ-J. Flacco, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards
- Win probability before: 42%
- Win probability after: 37%
- Differential: -5%
One of the biggest plays actually came on the Jets’ very first drive.
The Jets were starting to get something going on the opening drive of the game. Michael Carter started things up with a 19-yard run. An incomplete pass followed, but after a 5-yard Carter run, the Jets were facing a manageable 3rd & 5 from the 46-yard line.
Third down was a disaster. With 13 personnel on the field (3 tight ends), the Jets flexed third-string tight end Lawrence Cager out wide, asking him to run an out route against cornerback Kyle Fuller. Predictably, Cager could not separate, forcing Flacco to hold the ball since Cager appeared to be his first read.
Then, left guard Laken Tomlinson quickly allowed pressure into the pocket, leading to Flacco throwing the ball into no man’s land for an intentional grounding penalty.
New York was on its way to taking an early lead against a better opponent, which could have changed the course of the game. Instead, this nightmare of a play led to a punt, taking the momentum out of the Jets’ hands. Additionally, the huge loss of yardage via the penalty undid much of the field-position work that the Jets had done by gaining 24 yards on the drive.
3. (Q2, 10:54, BAL 3-NYJ 0) 4th and 4 at BAL 27. Greg Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left.
- Win probability before: 38%
- Win probability after: 30%
- Differential: -8%
Missing a field goal is an emotional gut-punch that sucks the life out of a team. That feeling is reflected in the win probability column.
Early in the second quarter, the Jets brought out Greg Zuerlein to attempt a 45-yard field goal following an eight-play, 44-yard drive that spanned nearly four minutes. A make by Zuerlein would tie the score after nearly 20 minutes of football – a scenario that I’m sure every Jets fan would have signed up for prior to the game.
Zuerlein hooked the kick to the left, leaving the Jets scoreless. The Jets’ win probability dropped from 38% to 30%. With a make, the Jets’ win probability likely would have climbed into the 40s.
After blowing this opportunity, the Jets would never tie the game or take the lead. Baltimore remained in control for the rest of the way.
2. (Q2, 3:51, BAL 3-NYJ 0) 3rd and 5 at NYJ 25. Lamar Jackson pass deep right to Devin Duvernay for 25 yards, TD.
- Win probability before: 27%
- Win probability after: 16%
- Differential: -11%
Lamar Jackson’s TD pass to Devin Duvernay traveled 25 air yards.
Jackson had 3 such TD passes in 2021 — all to Marquise Brown, who is now playing for the Cardinals, per @ESPNStatsInfo.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) September 11, 2022
This is the play that officially put the Ravens in control after the two teams exchanged punts and field goal attempts throughout most of the first half.
Baltimore had driven deep into New York territory thanks to a 32-yard pass interference penalty by free safety Lamarcus Joyner. In fact, that penalty by Joyner led to a 4% drop in win probability (30% to 26%), tying it for the 5th-largest momentum-swinger of the game. Since it led directly to this touchdown, I figured I would just mention it here rather than giving it its own section.
The Jets forced the Ravens into 3rd & 5 at the 25-yard line after Sauce Gardner broke up a potential touchdown pass intended for Mark Andrews and C.J. Mosley stopped a short pass for a 5-yard gain. By holding the Ravens to a field goal, the Jets could keep it a one-score game heading into what would likely be their final offensive drive of the first half.
Instead, Jackson made a perfect throw to Devin Duvernay for a 25-yard score, just barely beating the tight coverage of Bryce Hall. Baltimore took a 10-0 lead, which felt like a larger margin considering how the Jets offense was playing.
While the Jets were far from buried at this point, this touchdown definitely changed the game from a close defensive battle that could be won with minimal scoring to a game in which it was clear the offense would have to significantly step it up if the Jets were to win.
1. (Q1, 5:07, BAL 0-NYJ 0) 1st and 19 at NYJ 32. Joe Flacco pass short middle intended for Lawrence Cager INTERCEPTED by Marcus Williams at NYJ 46. Marcus Williams to NYJ 13 for 33 yards.
- Win probability before: 46%
- Win probability after: 31%
- Differential: -15%
WELCOME TO BALTIMORE @MarcusWilliams ‼
TUNE IN ON CBS. pic.twitter.com/vFGY4oDXZx
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 11, 2022
Turnovers are always major difference-makers in the win probability metric. There was only one turnover that occurred in this game while it was still competitive, so, naturally, it takes the top spot here.
It was only the first quarter when Joe Flacco threw his interception, but it was a costly one, as it set the Ravens up with prime field position (Jets’ 13-yard line).
New York began this drive promisingly as Flacco hit Elijah Moore for 24 yard to reach the 41-yard line. On the next play, though, Lawrence Cager committed a holding penalty to bring the Jets back to their own 32.
Then, Cager slipped on his route, contributing to the Flacco interception – although it was a throw that Flacco shouldn’t have tried anyway even if Cager didn’t slip. The throw looked to be brutally inaccurate, too, even if Cager ran his route as intended.
Over the past three years prior to this game, the Ravens were 15-3 in road games when taking the ball away at least once. They were only 1-5 when collecting zero takeaways.
With this early turnover, the Jets already put themselves on the wrong side of those splits. They teed up free points for a team that came in as 6.5-point road favorites. You just cannot afford to have these types of costly turnovers if you have any hopes of pulling off an upset.
Ultimately, out of these top five momentum-changing plays, we saw that two of them were on offense, two of them were on defense, and one was on special teams.
In other words, everyone has to be better.
