Ashtyn Davis is giving the New York Jets a potential long-term solution at their biggest position of weakness on defense
Regardless of their 4-8 record, historically bad offense, and constant off-field drama, the New York Jets can still lay claim to one of the best defenses in the NFL. After a suffocating performance against the Atlanta Falcons, the Jets’ defense now ranks third-best according to defensive DVOA, trailing only the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens.
From front to back, the Jets’ defensive lineup is nearly flawless. Their cornerback trio is the best in football and the linebacker duo could make an argument for the same title. The pass rush generates pressure as well as anyone.
There’s only one position that separates the Jets’ defense from utter perfection: safety. The duo of Jordan Whitehead and Tony Adams is the lone unit on the Jets’ defense that is not performing at an elite level.
Second-year man Tony Adams has had some ups and downs in his first season as a starter, but he has ultimately produced like a decent starter, which is a nice jumping-off point for the 24-year-old.
Adams has not allowed a single touchdown into his coverage and snagged one interception, which was a game-winner against Philadelphia. He has only allowed 11 receptions for 165 yards and is also yet to commit a penalty. His tackling needs work (11 missed tackles, 10th-most among safeties), but overall, Adams is already an “okay” starter with the potential to become much better as his career goes along.
It’s Whitehead and Whitehead alone who makes the Jets’ safety unit look like a weakness.
Whitehead’s poor production is the primary obstacle standing between the Jets’ current defensive ranking and being the best defense in football. Outside of a spectacular three-interception season opener, Whitehead has been one of the least effective safeties in the NFL based on his statistical production.
The veteran safety’s most severe crime is allowing eight touchdown passes into his coverage, per PFF. Not only is that the most among safeties, but no other safety has allowed more than five touchdowns.
The Jets have only allowed 14 passing touchdowns this year, which means all Jets players outside of Whitehead have been charged with allowing just six touchdowns. So, Whitehead has allowed two more touchdowns by himself than the rest of the team.
Finally, not only does Whitehead’s eight touchdowns lead all safeties, but it stands as the most among any defensive player in the league. There isn’t even a single cornerback who has allowed eight touchdowns yet (two players are tied for the lead with seven).
It doesn’t stop there. Whitehead has also been a magnet for large chunks of yardage in coverage. He’s been knocked with allowing 20 receptions for 362 yards, the fourth-most yards allowed among safeties. His average of 18.1 yards allowed per reception ranks second-worst among the 50 safeties who have defended at least 15 receptions.
Last but not least, Whitehead is one of the most inefficient tacklers at the position. He has been credited with 15 missed tackles, which stands as the second-most in the NFL among safeties and the most among Jets defenders.
Whitehead will be a free agent after the season, giving New York an opportunity to improve its weakest position on defense. While every position on offense will clearly be the top priorities, addressing the starting safety spot next to Adams must also be on the Jets’ offseason checklist. With even just a league-average starting safety beside Adams, it’s easy to picture the Jets’ defense vaulting into the NFL’s No. 1 spot.
Most likely, the Jets will have very limited resources to use on the defense. Their ammunition is already limited and the team would be foolish if it did not focus solely on offense with its biggest signings and highest draft picks. The Jets will not have a massive amount of cap space to work with and their draft class is currently projected to include only two picks in the top 100.
Considering the lack of resources that will be available to use on the defense, this means the Jets will have to try and find a diamond in the rough to replace Whitehead. Their search will have to revolve around in-house options, cheap free agents, and late draft picks.
Enter Ashtyn Davis.
Ashtyn Davis is having a solid year through 12 games
The Jets’ 2020 third-round pick struggled throughout the first two seasons of his career. However, he has stuck around on the roster thanks to his special teams ability, serving as a key leader in that phase over the past two seasons.
Davis hardly appeared on defense in 2022 (13 snaps in 14 games), but in 2023, the Jets have integrated a bevy of three-safety packages into their defensive rotation, allowing Davis to get on the field consistently for a few snaps per game. Davis has played 121 defensive snaps in 12 games (10.0 per game).
Davis has made the most of his opportunities. It feels like he makes a big play every time he’s on the field. In just 121 snaps, the fourth-year safety has recorded 12 tackles (two for loss), four passes defended, two interceptions (although one was a Hail Mary), two fumble recoveries, and a safety.
Elite play by Ashtyn Davis pic.twitter.com/rktllSD1J3
— Joe Blewett (@Joerb31) December 5, 2023
Ashtyn Davis picks off Patrick Mahomes!
(via @nyjets) pic.twitter.com/9P8sKTLTV4
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) October 2, 2023
The only issue for Davis is his tackling, as he has missed three tackles. Compared against his 12 total tackles, that gives Davis a 20% missed tackle rate, which is higher than both Whitehead (17.6%) and Adams (15.1%). Still, Davis’ coverage and overall playmaking have been stellar on a per-play basis, outweighing his missed tackles.
In coverage, Davis has allowed only 92 yards on 15 targets, an average of 6.1 yards per target. Whitehead has allowed 11.7 yards per target (362 yards on 31 targets), nearly double Davis’ number. Adams has allowed 10.3 yards per target (165 yards on 16 targets).
It’s also worth noting that Davis, like Adams, has allowed no touchdowns and is yet to commit a penalty.
Davis has recorded 12 total tackles on 121 defensive snaps, meaning he makes a tackle on 9.9% of his defensive snaps. Whitehead has 73 tackles on 840 snaps, an 8.7% rate. Adams’ rate is slightly ahead of Davis’ rate, with 60 tackles on 590 snaps (10.2%).
Because of the small sample size, the Cal product must continue his excellent play over the next five games to prove it is no fluke. Perhaps the Jets should allow him to start over Whitehead so they can get a chance to evaluate him over a larger volume of reps.
Starting Davis would also allow the Jets to evaluate Davis’ capability of handling the assignments that come with Whitehead’s starting safety role, which is different than the sub-package role Davis has been playing. In some ways, Davis’ current role is closer to that of a linebacker than a safety.
Here is a look at where Davis has lined up this year:
- Box: 43.0%
- Slot: 42.1%
- Deep safety: 12.4%
- Outside CB: 2.5%
That is a lot different than the role Whitehead is playing. Here is Whitehead’s snap distribution in 2023:
- Deep safety: 45.8%
- Box: 32.3%
- Slot: 21.4%
- Outside CB: 0.5%
The Jets would be wise to have Davis and Whitehead switch roles over the final five games. See if Davis can translate his progress to Whitehead’s starting role. With the playoffs out of the picture, there is nothing left to gain with having Whitehead start. It’s time to enter evaluation mode.
Davis is an unrestricted free agent after this season, so the Jets do not have full control over his future. They obviously will not franchise-tag him, so Davis will be free to sign wherever he likes.
However, even with his progress this year, it’s unlikely that Davis’ market price will soar beyond the Jets’ budget. New York should be able to get him on an affordable contract. But to get an early leg up on re-signing him, the Jets need to let Davis start these final five games.
If the Jets allow Davis to start and he performs well, it could be enticing for Davis to return to a familiar situation where there is a starting spot waiting for him in a system that he knows is a good fit for him.
On the contrary, if the Jets continue starting Whitehead over Davis in a lost season despite Davis significantly outperforming him, is Davis going to be chomping at the bit to re-sign? He’ll probably be eager to find a team that is willing to give him a better shot at a starting job.
If the Jets lose Davis in free agency, they will have to scrounge the bottom of the barrel for an answer at safety. That could still work out, but Davis (assuming he maintains this level of play over the next five games) is becoming somewhat of a known commodity since he is amassing quality reps in the Jets’ defense.
That’s something no other bargain-bin player can offer. Davis is shaping up to be the rare type of player who can be re-signed for cheap while still having a track record of playing well in that team’s system.
The fact that we’re even talking about the Jets having to entice Ashtyn Davis of all people into re-signing with them is a testament to how far he has come. Credit is due to both Davis and the Jets’ coaching staff. Davis could have been tossed to the curb long ago, but the Jets have continued to believe in him, and he is rewarding their patience.
Now, it’s time for New York to give Davis a second chance at the starting safety job and see how he handles it. If he continues playing well, he could establish himself as one of the Jets’ starting safeties in 2024, potentially providing an affordable upgrade at the only position that stands between the current Jets defense and the league’s No. 1 defensive ranking.
