Ignore the fantasy points and box-score stats: Breece Hall has been a star for the New York Jets
What is the running back’s job?
Most people would give a very simple answer: make plays.
But what exactly does it mean to “make plays?”
To me, a running back “makes a play” when he creates yardage that isn’t handed to him. Make a man miss. Use your breakaway speed to blow by defenders. Drag a defender down the field. Run someone over. Be patient and allow holes to develop.
When a running back successfully does one of these things, it means he has “made” a play. He created yards that weren’t previously available before his actions. Therefore, he has done his job.
Ultimately, the goal of the running back position can be boiled down to one simple description: Get more yardage than expected.
And by that simple description, Breece Hall has been one of the best running backs in the NFL this season.
By using basic statistics, it is difficult to argue the New York Jets’ second-year runner has been one of the best players at his position. Due to a horrendously putrid offensive line, Hall has received little-to-no running room throughout the entire season, crushing his standard box-score statistics. This has caused many casual NFL fans (typically the fantasy-obsessed ones) to label Hall as a “disappointment” or “bust”.
Everyone (with common sense) knows Hall’s lackluster production isn’t his own fault. Still, without that cold-hard proof, it’s tough to suggest Hall has been an amazing player this year.
Well, that cold-hard proof does exist if you know where to find it.
For starters, you can clearly see Hall’s excellence through the eye test if you study his film. But it’s not the eye test alone that proves Hall’s greatness. In metrics that are designed to separate the running back from his surroundings, Hall stands out as a superstar.
NFL Next Gen Stats uses player tracking data to calculate the “expected” amount of yardage a player is expected to gain on each play, based on the positioning of all players on the field. By comparing a player’s actual yardage to his expected yardage, you get an idea of how much yardage the player created (or lost) via his own performance.
If a runner is given a huge hole, he will be expected to gain a lot of yards, decreasing the impressiveness of a large gain on that play – unless he does something special to gain even more yards than were blocked up for him.
On the other hand, if a runner gets hit behind the line of scrimmage, he won’t be expected to gain many (if any) yards, therefore letting him off the hook for a run that looks poor on his standard statistics.
These numbers are also tracked in the passing game, where players are evaluated based on how many yards after the catch they are expected to gain.
Now, let’s dive into the numbers.
Breece Hall is one of the NFL’s best playmakers
In the running game, Hall has earned 81 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), ranking as the 12th-most among running backs. On a per-carry basis, Hall is averaging 0.5 RYOE per carry, ranking fifth among the 30 running backs with at least 150 carries.
What really sets Hall apart is his two-way dominance. Hall has also been an elite playmaker in the passing game. Not many running backs can say they are elite in both phases.
As a receiver, Hall has racked up 130 yards after catch over expected (YACOE), ranking as the second-most among running backs behind only Rachaad White.
Breece Hall turned a two-yard catch into a 50-yard TD 🔥@BreeceH | @FastTwitchDrink pic.twitter.com/wZB9nZZnLr
— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2023
Hall joins Christian McCaffrey as the only two running backs in the NFL who have gained at least 80 yards over expected both as a rusher and after the catch. McCaffrey and Jaylen Warren are the only other backs who rank top-12 in both RYOE and YACOE.
Combined, Hall has generated 211 yards over expected between his rushing and his YAC. That ranks sixth-best among running backs:
- Christian McCaffrey (394 yards over expected)
- De’Von Achane (290)
- Keaton Mitchell (238)
- Jaylen Warren (221)
- James Cook (213)
- Breece Hall (211)
There’s a big gap after the top six. After Hall at 211, the next player up is Saquon Barkley all the way down at 150.
Here are the top 14 running backs in total yards over expected (RYOE + YACOE):
A running back’s standard statistics (yards/TDs) are a combined product of the entire offense. You can’t just give a running back all the credit when he puts up a ton of yards, and you can’t just give him all the blame when he gets shut down. Nor can you give all of the credit to the offensive line if he goes off or pin it entirely on the offensive line if he fails to produce.
When evaluating any player on the football field, the key is figuring out how to evaluate his individual performance independent of the surroundings.
Football is a highly complex sport. On each play, many different factors are simultaneously influencing one another to determine the final result, so you have to be detailed in your analysis to understand an individual player’s true impact on the outcome.
And when we do that at the running back position, it’s clear that Breece Hall remains as much of a star in 2023 as he was in 2022. It doesn’t show up in his fantasy points or box-score stats, only because the situation is not allowing for that, but it shows up when you look solely at Breece’s impact on the game.
As bad as the Jets’ offense already is, they’d be significantly worse without a player of Hall’s caliber as their RB1. So much of the Jets’ offensive production in 2023 stemmed from Hall simply cooking up a home-run play out of nowhere. If the Jets had a running back who just takes what he’s given on every play, I’m not convinced they’d score more than five touchdowns all season.
Breece Hall hit 21.50 mph on his 72-yard TD run, per Next Gen Stats, which is the 4th-fastest top speed hit by a RB on a carry this season (fastest by a non-Dolphin) pic.twitter.com/wl8VmexlPZ
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) October 9, 2023
What a job by Tyler Conklin & Jeremy Ruckert to spring Breece Hall's 83-yarder
1. Conklin opens the initial hole by plowing Rousseau inside, which also obstructs 2 other defenders
2. Ruckert lays out Hyde at the second level
Breece does the rest, making White & Poyer miss pic.twitter.com/6iyjrDPQrL
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) September 13, 2023
What Hall has accomplished this year despite his surroundings is nothing short of incredible. While it’s been difficult for Hall to find consistent success on a play-to-play basis, he has found ways to eke out a breakaway play every now and then, giving the Jets a glimpse of how dominant he could become if they simply give him an average offensive line.
According to NGS’ tracking, Hall’s “expected” yards per carry (xYPC) is just 3.7. That is the fourth-worst mark among 30 running backs with at least 150 carries, exemplifying how poor the Jets’ run-blocking is. Despite being expected to average 3.7 yards per carry, Hall has actually averaged 4.2 yards per carry, hence his 0.5 RYOE per carry.
Hall’s standard average of 4.2 yards per carry is equal to the league-wide NFL average this year. This means Hall has produced a league-average YPC despite nearly league-worst blocking – a quintessential example of positive impact from the running back position.
The better the Jets’ run-blocking becomes, the more yardage there is to be gained for Hall.
The league-average for expected yards per carry is 4.0, and some of the most well-supported running backs come close to 5.0. If Hall continues averaging 0.5 RYOE while the Jets increase the amount of yardage they are blocking up for him, Hall’s standard YPC will soar far beyond league-average, allowing him to put up some incredible box-score numbers.
In fact, it’s possible that Hall’s RYOE will improve even further alongside an increase in his xYPC, bringing his ceiling to unbelievable heights. Think about it: If the Jets decrease the frequency at which Hall gets contacted behind the line of scrimmage, he will receive more chances to get out in space for breakaway runs, thus giving him more opportunities to rack up massive chunks of RYOE at once.
This isn’t merely hypothetical. Hall’s performance in games with a healthy Alijah Vera-Tucker is the basis of that hypothesis.
Vera-Tucker is such a dominant run-blocker that his presence alone turns the Jets’ run-blocking from awful to solid, even with plenty of subpar players around him. We’ve already seen that Hall’s impact increases exponentially alongside the improved blocking that Vera-Tucker brings to the table.
Take a look at Hall’s career numbers on carries with Vera-Tucker on the field:
- 120 carries
- 508 expected yards (4.2 xYPC)
- 222 RYOE (1.9 RYOE per carry)
- 730 actual yards (6.1 YPC)
Vera-Tucker’s presence results in a massive difference of 0.6 yards to Hall’s expected YPC. With Vera-Tucker, Hall has averaged 4.2 xYPC, which would tie for seventh-highest among 30 qualified running backs (min. 150 carries) this year. Without Vera-Tucker, Hall has averaged 3.6 xYPC, which would tie for the second-lowest mark.
Alongside the improved blocking comes an improvement in Hall’s individual playmaking. When Hall has Vera-Tucker, he’s putting up a whopping 1.9 RYOE per carry. That would lead 30 qualified running backs (min. 150 carries) by a longshot. Christian McCaffrey is currently in the lead at 1.3, and James Cook is a distant second at 0.8. Hall’s 1.9 mark would be in its own stratosphere.
This improvement by Hall is likely due to the reason I mentioned earlier: more breakaway opportunities. When Vera-Tucker is on the field, Hall gets to the second level much more often. And it’s at the second level where Hall generates most of his RYOE, as that is where his breakaway speed and open-field wizardry can shine.
Check out the wheels from Alijah Vera-Tucker…
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, AVT hit a max speed of 18.1 mph on this play.
It remains the fastest speed reached by an offensive lineman in the NFL this season. pic.twitter.com/6z7qaiiTzt
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) January 8, 2023
Breece Hall running wild behind Alijah Vera-Tucker#Jets pic.twitter.com/KalrGBPkSo
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) January 29, 2023
While Hall is very good between the tackles as well, it’s his open-field home-run-hitting that has proven to be his best trait, so his impact increases exponentially the more you can get him into the open field.
Hall’s breakaway speed and open-field skills are minimized behind an offensive front that causes him to get stuffed behind the line of scrimmage on essentially half of his plays. There is only so much Hall can do to exceed the expectations when he is getting hit immediately after he secures the football.
Breece Hall had a total of 0 yards before contact on 13 carries against Atlanta.
First contact occurred in the backfield on 7 of his 13 carries. pic.twitter.com/YESdft5M2k
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 6, 2023
If the Jets ever give Hall adequate blocking for a full season, he will make a serious push to be a first-team All-Pro. Across his two NFL seasons, Hall has proven he is a dynamic playmaker who consistently outperforms the expectations that are blocked up for him.
Unfortunately, the Jets’ abysmal blocking sets the expectations so low that Hall’s box-score stats still aren’t stellar even when he vastly exceeds those expectations.
But when the Jets have had a healthy Vera-Tucker on the field – who is so elite that his presence alone single-handedly transforms the Jets’ run-blocking from league-worst to above-average – Hall has shown just how unstoppable he can be. The higher the Jets’ offensive line sets the expectations for him, the more he exceeds his expectations. That’s a dangerous formula.
And that increase in Hall’s production is just based on the presence of one player. Imagine if the Jets not only get a healthy Vera-Tucker for a full season, but put some more pieces around him, too.
Oh, and amidst all of this talk about run-blocking, let’s not forget about what Hall brings as a receiver. Regardless of how things are going on the ground, the Jets can count on Hall to make plays at an elite level in the passing game. Very few running backs bring the same two-way impact that Hall does.
Even in the passing game, the Jets are leaving meat on the bone. While Hall has emerged as an outstanding safety-blanket receiver this year, his film shows that the Jets are missing out by not tapping into his route-running potential more frequently. Hall is burning linebackers on the outside but the Jets are not targeting him down the field.
Breece Hall aligns out wide and BURNS Duke Riley on a go route, but he isn't targeted
He's had too many great routes like this where he doesn't get targeted. They're wasting his potential as a receiver. He should basically be the WR2. pic.twitter.com/xvwdBxgB4y
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) December 18, 2023
Jets need to flex out Breece Hall more often, he's a mismatch for LBs. Here they put him outside and he draws a 1-on-1 against Zach Cunningham. Hall cooks him vertically and is open for a TD (Won't kill Zach as he started his read on the other side then got pressured) pic.twitter.com/e03vxS6zSr
— Michael Nania (@Michael_Nania) October 16, 2023
For now, Jets fans must anxiously wait for the team to give Hall a fair shot at reaching his full potential. Until that happens, fans should remain excited about the way Hall (in a post-ACL campaign) overcame a restrictive supporting cast to establish himself as one of the most positively impactful running backs in the NFL.
