Should the New York Jets retain Breece Hall?
It’s one of the biggest questions looming over the team entering the 2026 offseason—and it will likely be the first domino to fall, setting the stage for everything that is to follow.
If you ask some experts, such as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, the answer is a resounding yes. Others contend that the Jets have too many holes on their roster to sign a running back with no Pro Bowl appearances to one of the league’s richest salaries at his position.
Hall is an impending free agent. As a player with a high talent level but an uncertain future, he is a prime candidate for the franchise tag, which is projected to cost $14.5 million for running backs this season. Another option is the transition tag, which is cheaper at $11.7 million, but would allow Hall to negotiate with other teams, while giving the Jets the right to match any offer.
The NFL’s franchise and transition tag window opens tomorrow, Feb. 16, and closes on March 3. This means Hall’s future in New York could be decided very soon.
As we ponder how the Jets should handle the 25-year-old running back, one glaring stat offers clarity.
The stat that summarizes Hall’s value
It can be difficult to understand how valuable a certain running back truly is. What are we supposed to look at? Their rushing touchdowns? Total rushing yards? Scrimmage yards? Yards per carry?
All of these stats are extremely dependent on variables outside of the player’s control. Some backs play in more favorable environments to be productive than others.
Few running backs have been in a less favorable environment than Hall since he entered the NFL. With four consecutive years of below-average-at-best quarterback play, Hall has consistently been the focal point of opposing game plans. It did not help that his offensive line was also subpar over his first two years, although the Jets have remedied that issue since 2024.
For these reasons, it is critical to evaluate running backs using contextualized analysis that accounts for the expectations of their situation. This is the best way to understand how much value a certain running back brings to the table.
One of the best metrics for this particular endeavor is “yards above expected”, courtesy of NFL Pro. It uses GPS tracking data to estimate how many yards a player should be expected to gain on each play based on the quality of their blocking and the positioning/angling of all 22 players on the field.
This allows us to evaluate all running backs on essentially the same plane. If they consistently enjoy fantastic blocking and light boxes, they are held to higher expectations, and vice versa.
In 2025, Hall excelled at creating yards above expected as both a rusher and a receiver. He accumulated 142 RYOE (rushing yards over expected) and 99 YACOE (yards after catch over expected), bringing him to 241 total yards over expected.
This placed Hall seventh among running backs, joining some elite company:
- Bijan Robinson, ATL (514) — 257 RYOE, 257 YACOE
- James Cook, BUF (389) — 358 RYOE, 31 YACOE
- Derrick Henry, BAL (370) — 340 RYOE, 30 YACOE
- Jaylen Warren, PIT (305) — 181 RYOE, 124 YACOE
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (298) — 167 RYOE, 131 YACOE
- Jonathan Taylor, IND (274) — 195 RYOE, 79 YACOE
- Breece Hall, NYJ (241) — 142 RYOE, 99 YACOE
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (234) — 176 RYOE, 58 YACOE
- De’Von Achane, MIA (231) — 242 RYOE, -11 YACOE
- TreVeyon Henderson, NE (158) — 149 RYOE, 9 YACOE
It gives us some fascinating context regarding Hall’s value to the Jets.
There is no doubt that Hall was one of the top 10 running backs in the league this past season. However, there is a large gap between him and the top tier of the position. Hall was closer to zero yards above expected (league average) than he was to top-ranked Bijan Robinson, and he was 129 yards behind third-ranked Derrick Henry, about the same gap between Hall and the 25th-ranked running back (Blake Corum).
And this was a down year for the top tier of the running back position. In 2024, Saquon Barkley (634) and Derrick Henry (631) exemplified what peak dominance at the position looks like. Hall’s 2025 total, as good as it was, did not even reach 40% of Barkley’s 2024 number.
On the projected $14.536 million franchise tag, Hall would have the fifth-highest cap hit for running backs in 2026. If the Jets signed him to a long-term contract of the same value, it would be the fourth-highest salary for running backs.
Hall is an excellent player. But is he quite dominant enough to be worth a top-five salary at a non-premium position for a team with so many other holes?
There is no obvious answer to that question, and that is what makes Hall’s situation so complex. Some would argue yes, while some would argue no, and both have a fair case.
It’s up to the Jets to decide their stance.
The key is not just to understand what Hall’s value was in 2025, but to project what it will be in 2026 and beyond—which is even more challenging.
Hall’s cloudy outlook
Hall sits firmly on the fence between “elite” and “very good” at the running back position. What makes him even more mystifying is that there are valid reasons to think he could take a sharp swing in either direction moving forward.
There is a world where Hall trends down. On top of his spotty injury history, Hall’s 2025 season was actually a substantial spike compared to a year earlier, rather than the continuation of a sustained trend. In 2024, Hall had a very mediocre season as a rusher, posting just 2 RYOE, although his 110 YACOE was still impressive. So, we aren’t sure yet whether his 2025 season is something he can do year in, year out.
But there is also a world where Hall trends up and affirms his place in the top tier of running backs.
Hall has never played in a favorable situation before, which is something the Jets will try to remedy with their ample assets. If they can give him a competent supporting cast, his impact could skyrocket.
After all, even Saquon Barkley did not reach his yards-over-expected peak until his elite talent was combined with a pristine situation in Philadelphia; his RYOE numbers with the Giants were nowhere near as outstanding. When a running back with elite playmaking ability steps into a situation where the base expectations are high, his impact increases exponentially.
Plus, it is worth noting that Hall is set to play under an offensive coordinator in Frank Reich who has historically targeted running backs at a high rate. This would make a huge difference for Hall’s cumulative impact after he saw a career-low 3.0 targets per game in 2025.
New York’s Hall decision is anything but simple. His resume places him in a gray area that does not yield a clear solution amongst the options at the Jets’ disposal.
We know he’s good, but we don’t know precisely how good he is, or more importantly, how good he will be. But he’s certainly due to make a lot of money, whereas the Jets have a plethora of holes to fill that are more important than running back. So, if they are going to keep him in any capacity, be it franchise tag or long-term, they had better feel confident that he will at least replicate, if not improve upon, his 2025 impact.
At the same time, letting Hall walk is hardly an easy call, either, as his 2025 numbers assert that his impact cannot be easily replicated by your average replacement-level player.
If there were an obvious call here, the topic wouldn’t demand so much conversation. There is a valid argument for every available path. It’s up to the Jets to make a judgment call on what they believe is best for the organization.
