The New York Jets have a position choice to make
Another year, another New York Jets offensive line controversy.
After the Jets’ line fell apart for the second consecutive season, Joe Douglas knows he must make wholesale changes. Last offseason, he and Robert Saleh were content to allow Duane Brown, Max Mitchell, Billy Turner, and Mekhi Becton to enter the season as the team’s tackle depth (with Carter Warren redshirting his rookie season). That cannot be the case heading into 2024.
The Jets’ choices in 2023 had a lot to do with the player they considered the “ace up their sleeve”: Alijah Vera-Tucker. Saleh referred to him as such, indicating the team was willing to move Vera-Tucker to tackle if necessary. That came to pass when Brown quickly went on injured reserve, but it was short-lived. Vera-Tucker went down for the season with a torn Achilles in Week 5.
At exit interviews, Saleh indicated that the Jets would like to settle down Vera-Tucker at one position. He declined to answer which position that would be, and Vera-Tucker likewise demurred.
This leaves the question wide open once more: where should Vera-Tucker play in 2024?
The conundrum
Earlier in the 2023 offseason, Saleh mirrored the opinions of those at Jet X by saying that Vera-Tucker’s ceiling is at guard. Poor offensive line play and injuries forced him to change his tune, but he acknowledged that as a reality. It is no less a reality just because the Jets’ tackle situation is abysmal.
Joe Blewett summarized the situation accurately in his film review of Vera-Tucker’s 2022 performance. Because Vera-Tucker had played guard and both tackle spots, it was an ideal time to analyze his performance at all three. Blewett explained that Vera-Tucker’s All-Pro ceiling is only at guard. In fact, while Vera-Tucker is an adequate tackle, he has nowhere near the potential as either a run or pass-blocker at that position.
While Vera-Tucker played both tackle and guard in college, his NFL position was considered to be guard primarily because of his short arms (32⅛ inches). Interestingly, though, raw passing game statistics seem to indicate that Vera-Tucker is a better pass-blocker at tackle.
In 204 career pass-blocking snaps at tackle, Vera-Tucker has a 5.4% pressure rate, far better than the 6.5% positional average in 2023. Meanwhile, his pressure rate is 6.6% on 929 career pass-blocking snaps at guard, far worse than the 5.2% positional average. Statistically, at least, Vera-Tucker seems to be a better pass-blocker at tackle, albeit in a small sample size. Blewett’s film review disagreed with that assessment, though.
As a run-blocker, Vera-Tucker posted a 68.6 PFF grade at tackle (117 snaps) in 2022 and 77.2 (48 snaps) in 2023. At guard, he posted a 72.5 grade over the full 2021 season (334 snaps), 84.2 in 2022 (39 snaps), and 82.7 in 2023 (86 snaps). Overall, the numbers seem to indicate that he is a better run-blocker at guard.
Replacement questions
Regardless of Vera-Tucker’s ceiling as a player, the bigger question is the Jets’ ceiling as an offensive line. There aren’t many good tackles available in free agency. If Vera-Tucker plays guard, the Jets will need to acquire two new tackles. While options like George Fant, Jermaine Eluemunor, Andrus Peat, and Chris Hubbard can hold down the fort, the Jets likely will not be able to sign more than one with the dearth of good tackle play around the NFL.
The Jets could go into the draft needing a starting tackle, but there is the chance of a 2023 repeat. If they insert Vera-Tucker at tackle, that will mean one less hole at a critical position.
Meanwhile, guard is always an easier position to fill, and there are more decent mid-tier options available. Kevin Zeitler, James Hurst, and Graham Glasgow are some of the most well-known names among many average-level guards on the market. If the Jets want to move Joe Tippmann to guard, there are also some good center options.
Even if Vera-Tucker is a better guard, the Jets’ offensive line may have the best chance of competence with him at tackle.
Fifth-year option?
Another question the Jets need to answer is whether to pick up Vera-Tucker’s fifth-year option. He’s played just 12 games over the past two seasons, which is fewer than Mekhi Becton played in his first two years in the league. While Vera-Tucker’s first injury was a triceps and had little effect on his 2023 play, his Achilles tear this season could have a measurable impact on his future play.
The Jets need to make their choice this offseason. Even with Vera-Tucker’s durability questions, the answer must be yes just because of the sheer difference in the Jets’ rushing stats with and without him.
- With Vera-Tucker, 2022-23: 250 carries, 4.78 yards per carry, 10 TD, -0.02 EPA per rush, 39.2% success rate
- Without Vera-Tucker, 2022-23: 465 carries, 3.85 yards per carry, 7 TD, -0.18 EPA per rush, 32.9% success rate
With Vera-Tucker, the Jets would rank fourth in yards per carry, ninth in EPA per rush, and 24th success rate over that time period. Without him, they would rank 29th in yards per carry, 31st in EPA per rush and last in success rate. Vera-Tucker is the only player separating the Jets’ run game from total futility. This season proved that losing him in 2022 was more detrimental to the run game than losing Breece Hall.
Therefore, the Jets need to pick up his fifth-year option. They can’t go into 2025 with only Tippmann under contract. Even if they draft a rookie, having that fifth reasonable year from Vera-Tucker can save the Jets’ salary cap as they go all-in on Aaron Rodgers.
The Jets will likely tip their hand regarding their choice for Vera-Tucker early on in free agency. Still, there remains the possibility that they head into the draft hamstrung by their roster and leave themselves vulnerable to an empty hand once more.
