Is a Davante Adams trade to the New York Jets realistic?

The smoke surrounding Davante Adams to the Jets is heating up

When Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets, it seemed only a matter of time before Davante Adams joined him. That impression grew stronger when the Raiders benched Jimmy Garoppolo for rookie fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell. In fact, Joe Douglas tried to acquire Adams at the 2023 trade deadline, but no one in Las Vegas responded — with good reason, as both the coach and general manager were fired.

Early in the 2024 offseason, rumors continued to swirl connecting Adams to the Jets. However, when the Raiders decided to retain Antonio Pierce as their head coach, they made it clear they had no intention of trading Adams. Adams also expressed his approval of Pierce.

Still, Adams recently told Kay Adams of the Up & Adams Podcast that Rodgers has been in his ear about teaming up once more. Breece Hall added fuel to the fire. On WFAN, Boomer Esiason stated he’s heard an Adams trade would occur in late August or early September, shortly before the season begins.

All this smoke brings us back to three questions: would the Raiders trade Adams? Would the Jets be able to make it happen in terms of finances and draft capital? And would it even make sense for them to make such a trade?

Cap perspective

Acquiring Adams would be tricky from a cap perspective. Here’s his current contract.

From the Raiders’ point of view, it’s not so bad. They would have $7.85 million in dead cap in 2024 with $17.5 million in cap savings. In 2025, the dead cap goes up to $15.7 million, but they’d still save $28.4 million. They could save a lot of cap space by trading him.

For the Jets, though, it’s a little trickier. Adams has a $16.89 million guaranteed salary in 2024 with $610,000 in bonuses. The Raiders would be on the hook for his $7.85 million signing bonus, but his cap hit with the Jets would still be $17.5 million. In 2024 and 2025, though, none of Adams’ money is guaranteed, which means the Jets could release him after the 2024 season with no cap repercussions (assuming they didn’t restructure his contract).

The problem here is twofold. First of all, the Jets have only $6.25 million in cap space, which means they would either need to restructure Adams’ contract or find a way to clear $11.25 million in space (the former is the only realistic option). Furthermore, they would probably want to retain Adams for more than one season if they traded for him, but that would be difficult given his $35.64 million base salary in 2025. He would likely prefer to test the free-agent market over taking a pay cut to remain with the Jets.

Restructure

Here’s how Adams’ contract would likely look if the Jets used a maximum restructure while adding two void years for cap purposes (using Over the Cap’s structure).

As you can see, if the Jets would want to cut Adams in 2025 with this restructure, it would cost them $12.544 million in dead cap instead of the $0 his contract currently has. Still, it would save the Jets $26.842 million in 2025. Ultimately, having Adams for a $4.956 million cap hit in 2024 and $12.544 million dead in 2025 is a pretty good price if Adams still plays at an elite level in 2024.

The Jets can certainly make it work with the cap space they currently have, although it would cut things quite close if contingencies arise.

Trade compensation

The bigger problem for the Jets is the compensation such a trade would require. As we saw with Stefon Diggs, trades of big-name receivers do not necessarily yield as much as you would think. Diggs’ stat line in 2023 was 107/1,183/8, while Adams’ was 103/1,144/8, an eerily similar line. Diggs is entering his age-31 season with nine prior seasons, while Adams is entering his age-32 season with 10 accrued years.

One critical difference is the amount of dead cap the trading team would take. The Bills are eating $31.096 million in dead cap in 2024 with negative savings for having traded Diggs, while the Raiders would eat $7.85 million in 2024 and $15.7 million in 2025 with significant cap savings. If anything, that should lower the trade compensation amount.

The Bills received a 2025 second-round pick, a 2024 sixth-rounder (No. 189), and a 2025 fifth-rounder for Diggs. Therefore, let’s assume the Jets would need to give up a 2025 second-rounder for Adams, perhaps with a little less thrown in.

Ordinarily, that would sound like chump change for an elite receiver. The problem is that the Jets have some big cap hits coming due in the next few seasons as well as several key free agents. They likely need as much draft capital as possible to find cheap talent and mitigate the inevitable losses in free agency. Especially considering that Adams would most likely stay for only one season, it’s more problematic than it might seem on the surface.

Would the Raiders trade him?

From a cap perspective, the Raiders could choose to move on from Adams. As explained earlier, they would save a nice amount of money from letting him go a year early. O’Connell seems to be their starting quarterback as of now, but even if Gardner Minshew gets the nod, this is not a team that appears to be going anywhere.

Still, the Raiders’ offseason moves are not the moves of a rebuilding team. Perhaps they were outmaneuvered for a top quarterback in the draft, but signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a four-year, $110 million deal is not a rebuilding kind of move.

Antonio Pierce had a 5-4 record after taking over as the interim head coach in 2023. The Raiders seem to want to capitalize on that opportunity. In that vein, they said they wouldn’t trade Adams. Still, that was before the offseason shook out as it did; perhaps they’ll change their minds with their quarterback situation and a general lack of top-tier talent across the roster.

Does it make sense for the Jets?

From a cap perspective, the Jets could certainly make it happen. From a draft compensation angle, it’s a little more iffy.

What about from a player perspective, though? As elite as the Rodgers-to-Adams connection was, Adams is 31 years old. His numbers dipped in 2023 compared to his previous five seasons. That’s a bad sign for a receiver his age, although the Raiders’ quarterback situation could account for it. Catching passes from Garoppolo and O’Connell is a downgrade from Derek Carr.

Still, other areas of Adams’ game took a nosedive. His contested catch rate fell from 44.1% to 35.3%, while his drop rate rose from 5.7% to 8%. Adams’ YAC per reception decreased from 5.0 to 3.3, and his yards per route run decreased from 2.45 to 1.97.

Again, it’s hard to know whether to attribute these declines to quarterback play or Adams himself. As is evident in Garrett Wilson’s numbers, passer performance often skews receiver performance quite heavily. Still, it is a yellow flag for an aging receiver.

Damien Woody recently said on ESPN that it makes no sense for the Jets to acquire Adams. He sees it as too many mouths to feed in the Jets’ offense. However, I see it more as a Diggs type of move. The Texans already had Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz, but they added another weapon for C.J. Stroud in an all-in window.

With Rodgers’ future uncertain and an all-in year for the Jets, Adams would round out the receiving corps that still has questions. It would take the pressure off Mike Williams, allow Garrett Wilson to play consistently in the slot, and push Xavier Gipson, Malachi Corley, and Allen Lazard to depth pieces. (The Jets might even decide to unload Lazard and pay part of his contract just to get rid of him.)

Do the Jets need Adams? No. But could he push their offensive skill position group to the next level? Definitely, even if he’s only the player he was in 2023 and not the Adams of 2018-22.

Will it happen?

As much as Rodgers might want it, I don’t think an Adams trade will happen, at least not before the season starts. I believe the Raiders will at least want to see what happens with their season before throwing in the tank. I also think the Jets will want to evaluate how their receiving corps plays out before pulling the trigger.

Still, if the Raiders are floundering near the trade deadline, a trade becomes a lot more likely. The compensation would likely be lower for what is probably a half-year rental.

Keep an eye on Las Vegas as the season progresses. Right now, though, my best guess is that the Adams rumors are just smoke.